BTW the last couple of model runs (oz, 6z) both had upper air data fed into them from some sampling missions. They should be trusted more than previous runs.
6z model runs.
Notice they're all grouped up close until the coast when they spread out more. Its really hard to accurately pin down turns in tropical systems because so many variables come into play. Kinda crazy how many of those model tracks go right through Bexar county.
So should I get home insurance?
I don't particularly want to sit in 7 hour traffic but I'm not sure I should make a decision tonight or Thursday morning/midday
Wait till this afternoon IMO. I don't think CC is going to be far removed from this storm but maybe the new forcasts will show an earlier turn.
If the weatherguy buys a generator, then we better stock up too!
S y.....Have you stocked up on supplies yet?
Can I assume that if its still tracking for a direct or close hit around 6 tonight that it'll be too late for it to completely miss us.
Yeah dude. Sorry to say but looking at the way all those models are lined up right at CC with the upper air data put into them is bad for you. A couple of more runs with that same output and you can be confident in what they say.
There's always the chance they're off, but everytime a new run comes out and says the same thing as it did for the last 2 or 3 the more likely its on.
They're opening up the counterflow (shoulder) lane today.
Of course! I was a former Girl Scout, you know!If the weatherguy buys a generator, then we better stock up too!
S y.....Have you stocked up on supplies yet?
I'm waiting to see WWMD (what would Manny do)
Manny is debating heading the opposite way as B2B. Are you sure you're going to do what Manny does?
Seriously if the electricity goes out I'm totally getting a bunch of free
If I go to SA I'm running from a storm to flooding. This blows.
I expect Manny to let me know right at 3pm so I can make my final decision.
No way dude. You'd just ask for an apology when it comes ashore at rockport.
Rockport is way too close. Thats only a 15-20 minute drive from here. I don't want to be anywhere near here it this goes twords Rockport.
Manny is debating heading the opposite way as B2B. Are you sure you're going to do what Manny does?
Maybe it should be WWMDIFSISA (what would manny do if he stayed in san antonio) :P
Kinda looks like the storm just finished or is finishing an eye wall replacement cycle. Couple that with the loop current its about to go over and the next 12 hours might see a lot of strengthening.
Well I'm not buying a generator, thats for damn sure. But I'm not a richer like Steve Browne.
If this is going to be anything like 2005 when there was a slight chance we were going to get some residual hurricane action, I highly suggest if you're low on toilet paper you get some TODAY. It will be sold out from Corpus to Wichita Falls by Friday. Book it.
I hear it could hit as a CAT 4.
Yikes!
I did not know you were a Girl Scout. That's good to know though, just in case.Of course! I was a former Girl Scout, you know!
I'm waiting to see WWMD (what would Manny do)
We are counting on you Manny to let us know what the F is going on.
http://www.twitter.com/ksatweather
We're going to be filing updates and seeking info from people out and about about Ike. Follow us there.
If this is going to be anything like 2005 when there was a slight chance we were going to get some residual hurricane action, I highly suggest if you're low on toilet paper you get some TODAY. It will be sold out from Corpus to Wichita Falls by Friday. Book it.
Thats a picture of ike at his current size overlayed where he's forecast to make landfall.
Kinda big huh?
I'm glad I save the Sunday paper.
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