Wayshrine of Lonnie Walker

[Chinook]

You act like they both have to agree. They don’t. Lonnie can just sign it. Happened before, at least twice. Rasho and Olowokandi. Neither stayed with their drafting team.

They don't HAVE to both agree, just like they don't have to agree for the Spurs to extend the QO. But you're projecting your opinion onto them, where you think Lonnie at a bit over $6 Million is some awful contract that the Spurs would want to avoid while also for some reason being willing to QO him and restrict his ability to find a better deal. There's basically no chance Walker would sign for less than that, so if the Spurs aren't willing to give him that contract, they just aren't going to be wiling to keep him. Any team who QO's a guy but isn't willing to give him the QO is stupid. That you think it's a reasonable response for the Spurs to bury Walker on the bench regardless of his play is bonkers. You're assuming there's a bunch of antagonism in how the two sides are approaching each other, including assuming that Walker would veto trades even though he's buried on the bench just to screw the Spurs over. It's not reasonable.

What's likely going to happen is this: The Spurs and Klutch will meet to make their initial offers. If they can agree, Lonnie re-signs without much fanfare (Leonard, Forbes). If the two offers are irreconcilable, Walker probably still gets the QO, but the Spurs are willing to release him from it if he finds a better deal (Neal, Simmons). If the offers don't match but are within reasonable negotiating range, the Spurs let Klutch shop around for a bit before deciding to up their offer (Poeltl) or give him up (Anderson). The only things that can affect that would be the team negotiating an S&T using him or the team needing to renounce Walker's hold in order to make an acquisition. Otherwise, the Spurs have a pretty well established RFA game plan that doesn't involve the mean-spirited game theory you seem so concerned about.

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You guys are making this more complicated than is necessary.

Lonnie seems like he wants to stay here. He just bought a house. Spurs seem to be pleased with his new play/effort.

He thinks he's turned a corner. Spurs are letting him prove it.

If he keeps this up, Spurs are likely to extend an qualifying offer or match a fairly moderate offer. Kid has Spurs written all over him.

And as someone eager to trade him earlier this season, I'm happy for the kid, and hope he's able to keep it up and get a bag commensurate with his valueas he seems to be earning it.

[emanueldavidginobili]

I could see him getting an MLE offer if he has a strong and consistent finish to the season and I hope we wish him well at that point.

If he keeps this up he will get more imo. He's 23 and would be a good investment for any team, his stock is going to rise exponentially if he maintains this, big if tbh but it's possible.

[XDT76]

There's not much logic in this. If the Spurs and Lonnie both agree that he should play on the QO, there's no more lack of investment in him than there is in any other player. Don't get me wrong -- I do not anticipate them agreeing to that. But it's a one-year deal at a bit more than he's making this year. They just gave Forbes a similar contract. There's zero guarantee that the Spurs draft anyone who would play Walker's minutes. The Spurs can already afford to play him and Primo. Jones might want more minutes, but he's only signed for another season as well. Lonnie scoring 20ppg makes him WAY more likely to contribute than a random young player, and it's not clear the Spurs are willing to play next year like they have this season.

For Walker, having another year to showcase himself in a situation where he's already grown makes sense. For the Spurs, keeping their sixth man without having to commit multiple seasons would allow them to bring guys up slowly if need be. For both, a trade to the right situation could still be beneficial, as Walker could be in line for a decent next contract using just his NB rights ($32M/4). You're assuming an odd adversarial relationship between Walker and the team, and we haven't seen anything to indicate that.

Walker is 23, not 30. He's three months older than Derrick White was when White was drafted. I understand you place a huge premium on players being as young as possible, but Walker is likely to be better than the vast majority of rookies while also still having a similar potential developmental curve.

They don't to mutually agree, if Spurs want to keep Lonnie they have to offer QO. Once they offer it is entirely up to Lonnie. He could just sign the QO and reject all other contract offered by the Spurs if he wants to be a UFA next season.

There are multiple reasons to it Lonnie is not satisfy with his situation in Spurs and other teams are not willing to offer him a contract if he is a RFA. Or teams that have mutually interest with him do not have the cap this season. Signing a QO can allow him greater flexibility for him to decide where to go. Of course the Spurs can agree to withdraw the QO to allow him be UFA but things happens maybe a core player suffers a long term injuries and Spurs would wanna hold him for one more year than sign a replacement which is not familiar with their system.

[Chinook]

They don't to mutually agree, if Spurs want to keep Lonnie they have to offer QO. Once they offer it is entirely up to Lonnie. He could just sign the QO and reject all other contract offered by the Spurs if he wants to be a UFA next season.

I'm not going to get into all of the permutations of what the Spurs can do in a situation where they definitely want Walker and are aiming to try to force him to stay against his will. That's not a scenario I was talking about, and it's not one with evidence suggesting it's likely to happen. If that changes, we can get into it. But I do want to say that both sides have significantly more flexibility than just the Spurs unilaterally extending the QO and Walker unilaterally signing it. I think you might be under the wrong impression of what signing the QO means, but I'll touch on that in a second. The point is that due to the both sides having things they can do, they can and likely will just talk it out rather than read and react to whatever each other is doing. The Spurs and Walker and even the Spurs and Klutch do not have a hostile relationship to where they have to make moves against each other. Him signing the QO isn't some hostile move on his part. The Spurs offered him the contract FFS. It basically becomes a "prove-it" deal for both sides. The Spurs still have his Bird rights, and Lonnie can still be traded and sign an okay deal with his new team. There's no reason why it would be some doomsday scenario where both sides are trying to screw each other like Ex suggested.

There are multiple reasons to it Lonnie is not satisfy with his situation in Spurs and other teams are not willing to offer him a contract if he is a RFA. Or teams that have mutually interest with him do not have the cap this season. Signing a QO can allow him greater flexibility for him to decide where to go. Of course the Spurs can agree to withdraw the QO to allow him be UFA but things happens maybe a core player suffers a long term injuries and Spurs would wanna hold him for one more year than sign a replacement which is not familiar with their system.

Signing the QO locks him into the QO, with no more negotiations until the next off-season. I couldn't be sure if you were under the impression that it's an extra bit of leverage Walker has, but it's not like the franchise tag in the NFL. Walker signing it makes him untradeable until 1/15, and unlike the NFL, whether he's traded or not, he can't then negotiate a new contract. With that in mind, signing the QO doesn't offer greater flexibility than just being a normal player and talking to the FO. Likely the Spurs wouldn't stop him from going to a new team if that team was willing to offer him more money or if Lonnie just wanted to leave. The Spurs have a history of not forcing guys to play for him. Yes, if he wants to go to a team that can sign him outright (even though they should at least have an MLE to give him), then he'd have to hope the Spurs agree to a S&T. They might not be able to do so, in which case Lonnie doesn't sign there. That's normal. Hopefully, he doesn't just want one team with that team not wanting him enough to give the Spurs a decent S&T package for him. But it's not like if Walker were a UFA that wouldn't also be the case.

[exstatic]

They don't HAVE to both agree, just like they don't have to agree for the Spurs to extend the QO. But you're projecting your opinion onto them, where you think Lonnie at a bit over $6 Million is some awful contract that the Spurs would want to avoid while also for some reason being willing to QO him and restrict his ability to find a better deal. There's basically no chance Walker would sign for less than that, so if the Spurs aren't willing to give him that contract, they just aren't going to be wiling to keep him. Any team who QO's a guy but isn't willing to give him the QO is stupid. That you think it's a reasonable response for the Spurs to bury Walker on the bench regardless of his play is bonkers. You're assuming there's a bunch of antagonism in how the two sides are approaching each other, including assuming that Walker would veto trades even though he's buried on the bench just to screw the Spurs over. It's not reasonable.

What's likely going to happen is this: The Spurs and Klutch will meet to make their initial offers. If they can agree, Lonnie re-signs without much fanfare (Leonard, Forbes). If the two offers are irreconcilable, Walker probably still gets the QO, but the Spurs are willing to release him from it if he finds a better deal (Neal, Simmons). If the offers don't match but are within reasonable negotiating range, the Spurs let Klutch shop around for a bit before deciding to up their offer (Poeltl) or give him up (Anderson). The only things that can affect that would be the team negotiating an S&T using him or the team needing to renounce Walker's hold in order to make an acquisition. Otherwise, the Spurs have a pretty well established RFA game plan that doesn't involve the mean-spirited game theory you seem so concerned about.

You’ve misread some post of mine or confused someone else’s opinion with mine. I don’t want them to offer the QO. I have no conflict at all about this, and don’t care if this leaves him unrestricted. We have a glut of 1s 2s and 3s, and even though Primo is playing, those minutes (16) won’t be enough next year.

I think when your second year player has surpassed your 4th year player, it’s time to wish him well, and hold the door open for him. Lonnie’s advanced stats are putrid, and he can really only be classified as NBA junk food, His VORP for his 4 seasons is -1.4, meaning you could get a guy off the waiver wire, and he would probably contribute more to the team than Lonnie. He has ac ulated 1.5 WS in 4 seasons. Devin has 2.4 this year alone, and 3.9 in 2 seasons.

We have four draft picks, and even though we may not use them all ourselves, there’s always a free agent or two they may have their eyes on, and we only have two roster spots that look to be available this summer as of right now if Lonnie is retained.

[Chinook]

You’ve misread some post of mine or confused someone else’s opinion with mine. I don’t want them to offer the QO.

No, I stated your point accurately. You don't want the Spurs to offer the QO. I know that. What I actually said about it is that you project your opinion onto the Spurs, assuming they would have a problem with Walker signing the QO. In the scenario we're talking about -- where the Spurs tender Walker in the first place -- that's not reasonable. Walker can't sign a QO the Spurs don't offer, so if the Spurs aren't willing to have Walker play for them on the QO but tender him anyway, they'd be stupid. They don't have to tender him to later S&T him if need be, so all they'd be doing it for (if they weren't willing to pay him) would be to curtail where he could sign. Walker, in this case, would sign his QO almost out of spite, and SA, definitely out of spite, would bury him on the bench. It's twisted. There's very little chance Walker signs a QO against the Spurs' will. I understand that if you end up being hired as VPoBO for the team the day after Walker signs his tender, you would be unhappy. But realistically, the two sides will come to an agreement on what to do going forward without either side making bold moves on their own.

I do believe there's a debate to be had on what the Spurs are going to do with Walker. We've had it before and will have it again, I'm sure. I don't want to conflate that debate with the discussion we've been having though. Not wanting Lonnie is one thing; assuming they Spurs and Lonnie would have some fraught standoff about his QO tender next year is another. The first is a reasonable position; the second doesn't have nearly as much support.

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You’ve misread some post of mine or confused someone else’s opinion with mine. I don’t want them to offer the QO. I have no conflict at all about this, and don’t care if this leaves him unrestricted. We have a glut of 1s 2s and 3s, and even though Primo is playing, those minutes (16) won’t be enough next year.

I think when your second year player has surpassed your 4th year player, it’s time to wish him well, and hold the door open for him. Lonnie’s advanced stats are putrid, and he can really only be classified as NBA junk food, His VORP for his 4 seasons is -1.4, meaning you could get a guy off the waiver wire, and he would probably contribute more to the team than Lonnie. He has ac ulated 1.5 WS in 4 seasons. Devin has 2.4 this year alone, and 3.9 in 2 seasons.

We have four draft picks, and even though we may not use them all ourselves, there’s always a free agent or two they may have their eyes on, and we only have two roster spots that look to be available this summer as of right now if Lonnie is retained.

Lonnie years 1-3 is not Lonnie year 4. Really Lonnie 2nd half of year 4 for that matter. He himself says it's all starting to click and that he's turning a corner. Let him prove that over the remaining 20 games because only a simpleton wishes farewell to someone playing like Lonnie has the last 15 - 20 games or so. If he closes out this year like that, you have to extend a QO. You simply cannot conflate Lonnie's previous years to now if that light clicked on for him because he's gonna be a different contributor.

[KingKev]

Alot of good points being made for both sides. If Walker finishes the season strong I really don’t know what happens as there are so many other factors to consider including the logjam at the 2, potentially 4 more picks looming in the 22 draft, having to pay your best 3 players considerable increases in the coming years… Jak, DJ and Keldon

[TDomination]

i think after Kawhi wanting out and then seeing Aldridge and Young being unhappy with being here, we have now grown a fear of losing any talented player that our team has.

It's always hard to say what someone is thinking based on interviews, we don't truly know whats going on.

But with that said, if i had to guess, i believe Lonnie likes it here. I believe he and DJ have grown a strong relationship with each other and as long as DJ is here, Lonnie will stay. Friends have a strong influence.

[exstatic]

He literally does nothing but put his head down, and go to he rack, sort of a worse version of Westbrook, minus and dishing or rebounding.

[John B]

He literally does nothing but put his head down, and go to he rack, sort of a worse version of Westbrook, minus and dishing or rebounding.

That’s pretty much what Lou Williams, Jamal Crawford, Jordan Clarkson do. Not bad for a sixth man if Lonnie continues. How much value should teams put on a 6th man? (Not including Manu since he was more than a 6th man)

[JeffDuncan]

He literally does nothing but put his head down, and go to he rack, sort of a worse version of Westbrook, minus and dishing or rebounding.

60% of Lonnie’s shots are at sixteen feet from the basket and farther.

But carry on.

[SpurSpike]

If the Spurs can keep Lonnie for 10 million/year or under they should do it. Its a blessing in disguise that his advanced stats suck because i think Lonnie will become more consistent and it gives leverage to retain him for less! Some of you are forgetting that this is basically Lonnies softmore season as he spent almost his entire 1st 2 seasons in the G league. He has shown enough growth and determination to warrant a contract in that range.

Lonnie if he can be had for that price is not a very risky move either imo. If he can start giving you 20 a night it would be an absolute steal! Even if his play stays the same his potential is potent enough for some team to want. All i hear from opposing broadcasters is mostly good things so he has perceived value in the league and would be very tradable. It also seems that he is very close to DJ and a good dude overall. In a lot of ways i think moving Derek gave Lonnie a bit more freedom to play his game and he is using it well so far.

Honestly the worst thing we could do is lose him for nothing unless of course his asking price is too high.

[exstatic]

60% of Lonnie’s shots are at sixteen feet from the basket and farther.

But carry on.

My statement was of recent developments, he’s barely shooting jumpers at all over the period of increased scoring/usage. His3 pointer is complete at this point.

[exstatic]

If the Spurs can keep Lonnie for 10 million/year or under they should do it. Its a blessing in disguise that his advanced stats suck because i think Lonnie will become more consistent and it gives leverage to retain him for less! Some of you are forgetting that this is basically Lonnies softmore season as he spent almost his entire 1st 2 seasons in the G league. He has shown enough growth and determination to warrant a contract in that range.

Lonnie if he can be had for that price is not a very risky move either imo. If he can start giving you 20 a night it would be an absolute steal! Even if his play stays the same his potential is potent enough for some team to want. All i hear from opposing broadcasters is mostly good things so he has perceived value in the league and would be very tradable. It also seems that he is very close to DJ and a good dude overall.

Honestly the worst thing we could do is lose him for nothing unless of course his asking price is too high.

$10 Million? Jesus F Christ. He’s not worth half that.

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He literally does nothing but put his head down, and go to he rack, sort of a worse version of Westbrook, minus and dishing or rebounding.

He shot the 3 at 36% last year on like 250 attempts. Granted his 3pt % this year is no bueno but he can shoot it. His midrange game is something he's developing. Probably to the detriment of his 3 pt percentage

I hate this. Youre making me defend Lonnie. And until about 1 month ago, I rarely if ever did. I roasted him on his D, but even that has drastically improved.

[SpurSpike]

$10 Million? Jesus F Christ. He’s not worth half that.

Its not 2008 anymore inflation is crazy, 10 million ain't what it used to be!

[JeffDuncan]

My statement was of recent developments, he’s barely shooting jumpers at all over the period of increased scoring/usage. His3 pointer is complete at this point.

That’s incorrect. During this last stretch of six games where he’s been scoring more, the vast majority of his shots are from 15+ feet.

What you might be noticing is that he’s been doing a better job of making layups. That would be a natural focus, since he’s been so bad about it. Everybody has seen him do a fancy move, and miss the layup. He seems to be coming around on that, finally.

Right, about his 3pt shooting. 30% for the season won’t do. Even during this last six-game stretch, he’s still only at 38%, 13 of 34.

If the Spurs are serious about winning they should replace him.

[Sugus]

That’s incorrect. During this last stretch of six games where he’s been scoring more, the vast majority of his shots are from 15+ feet.

What you might be noticing is that he’s been doing a better job of making layups. That would be a natural focus, since he’s been so bad about it. Everybody has seen him do a fancy move, and miss the layup. He seems to be coming around on that, finally.

Right, about his 3pt shooting. 30% for the season won’t do. Even during this last six-game stretch, he’s still only at 38%, 13 of 34.

Yeah, people are hitting a strawman when attacking Lonnie's recent play. His career numbers are bad, but that doesn't mean he can't improve on them moving forward. I don't see his 3pt shooting as a problem really, his form is sound and his pullup jumpers look good too - he just misses. Practice and further growth will help him there. As you said, layup making is one of his biggest improvements; not just in the making them department, but in actually looking to score on those drives. Far too often Lonnie drives and the team gets nothing out of that, so converting those layups is really important for him.

If the Spurs are serious about winning they should replace him.

Lmao I wasn't expecting this end to the comment. You can say that about half the current Spurs, tbh. Nothing points to the Spurs not being able to win with Lonnie as a sixth man if he keeps the scoring and defensive effort up - the starters are the problem this year (and for quite some years now).

[John B]

Lonnie’s been averaging 20 pts the last 6 games, playing away and 3 games against contenders. If he continues this streak throughout the end of the season, it would be dumb not to sign him back. 20 ppg?

[MannyIsGod]

$10 Million? Jesus F Christ. He’s not worth half that.

I think this is an incredibly bad miscalculation. Guards like Reggie Jackson, Terrance Mann, and Josh Richardson are all at that Mark and I'd argue Lonnie has the potential to be much better than all of them and a floor that is in line with all of them. 10 million per is right in line with what a player like Lonnie will command on the market even if he doesn't keep the current rate up.

Saying he's not worth half of that is pretty absurd when you look at the contracts of similar guards.

[MannyIsGod]

What logjam at the 2 are people talking about? We have Vassell and Walker who can both play the 2/3 and we have Primo who may be able to play both as well but that's not a logjam. That's a rotation if all 3 work out which isn't a given. Yeah, we also have Richardson and Langford, but thats still just depth. There is no logjam at the 2/3 position

[MannyIsGod]

That’s pretty much what Lou Williams, Jamal Crawford, Jordan Clarkson do. Not bad for a sixth man if Lonnie continues. How much value should teams put on a 6th man? (Not including Manu since he was more than a 6th man)

Exactly this. People have weird expectations of all our players.

[MannyIsGod]

My statement was of recent developments, he’s barely shooting jumpers at all over the period of increased scoring/usage. His3 pointer is complete at this point.

He's 13-34 from the 3 point line in his last 6 games. That's over 5 3s a game at a reasonable rate. Its not amazing, but complete ?


What the did Lonnie do to you?