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We’ve got another H2H that should seal the deal. They’re on of the few teams ahead of us that are NOT tanking.
Pelicans just blew a big lead late in the 4th in Charlotte and lost. Spurs definitely making that play-in tbh smh.
We’ve got another H2H that should seal the deal. They’re on of the few teams ahead of us that are NOT tanking.
I'm not too worried about the Pels. They're a good(ish) team working for the play-in. Beating the Hornets in CHA isn't easy.
Lakers are playing better.
WASH won tonight, which is good. Minor worries between them and NYK. It seems unlikely the Spurs move up the lottery; my fear is moving down.
What am I talking about. Washington is losing to the freaking Rockets right now.
Wizards about to lose to the Rockets too. Shameful.
There's no way Cleveland tanks for a pick that would be in the 12-14 range when they are in the playoff picture. That team is now on an upward trajectory. They can make some noise if they are health in the playoffs.
They will or they won't. I just listed who has incentive. But if the Cavs were to drop a few in a row, even though they were trying? They might just call it a season and take that 12-14 draft pick. Like I said, any FRP is a big chip in a potential deal.
I'm just feeling pessimistic after those last 2 Spurs wins. If they had let those two go, I think they would be tied for the 5th pick. Maybe they would be 6th, but still. Huge difference in lottery equity.
Looking at Toronto's schedule, of their remaining 10 games, 8 are at home and 2 on the road (@Orlando and @NY). The next game is against Cleveland, hopefully they get the W and they will own the tie breaker over Cleveland.
I didn't see yours before I posted. I don't really have a picture. The thought of the Spurs slipping down to the 9 or 10 seed makes me queasy, and I'm seeing a lot of ways that could happen. What I really want is for them to get to that 6 pick, but I don't see any way that happens. I could have tried to put together some kind of matrix, but I'd rather be all doom and gloom I guess.
Honestly, I guess Cleveland losing a bunch shouldn't affect Toronto's chances too much unless things fall together perfectly wrong. But my thought was that Brooklyn could catch fire, Cleveland could drop to 7, and Toronto to 8. And Toronto would just pack it in for the play-in.
LOL. I remember now, when I was writing that earlier I was thinking about Pop "doing the right thing" and playing for the W's, and then retiring. So I may have been steaming a little. But if Pop knows he's done, he really should leave the next coach in as good of shape as possible.
Don't care about Pop, now could be coaching to win when a 1-7 lotto pick that is (was?) within grasp vs sucking the last 3.9 years. Know all about him.
Tanking, who is and who is not is what i'd like to know. Seems to be changing by the days.
Cleveland you mentioned now sure enough they lost to the Lakers today.
Portland? What the did they win today for?
Detroit? The are they up to losing to Portland today?
See thread on NBA forum please.
Last edited by MultiTroll; 03-21-2022 at 11:09 PM.
Spurs needs to win 6 Or 7 of their last 10 games to be in the play in imo, unlikely. Pels are playing well ( i watched their last 3 games) and the lakers have an edge.
Team to watch now is the wizards, they lose badly to Houston.
I don't get this losing mentality on ST. You always play to win. You should never 'tank'. Instead of trying to lose, you should strive for development. That is what Pop and White are doing FFS.
Aggressive developing is basically tanking, which is why I want Joe Wieskamp to see extended minutes at the center spot!
Pop was good at tanking for Tim, but now he seems to want to ensure that we are at the back end of the lottery.
Fallacy. Spurs set a single season record, at the time, with ~280 player games missed. David missed all but a few games with a sports hernia and a broken foot. Sean missed half the season with quad tendinitis. Avery missed a chunk of the season, but they brought him back in March, and won games that dropped them down to 6th in the draft.
We’re not going anywhere. The difference between 7 and 10 in jumping into the top 4 is 32.0% or 13.9%. I’m not an advocate of tanking a whole season, but absolutely tanking the end of a useless season for an infusion of talent that we desperately need.
How was Tim Duncan obtained?
LOL. I invented rationalization millennia ago, and even I'm impressed with that. Well played.
The simple fact is that the Spurs had the best winning percentage of any team in any professional sport for a decade. (Or more, let's not split hairs.) And we know that the draft is very top-loaded. So even with careful drafting, free-agency, and development they eventually had to wind up with a talent deficit. If we can't agree on that much, there's not anything to discuss.
If there wasn't a salary cap, they could go out and buy upgraded talent all the time. But there is a salary cap, and that says you have to get a periodic infusion from the draft. The top of the draft, not the bottom half. Maybe Pop really is so magical that he can keep developing mediocre talent into first round playoff teams. But that's all the more reason to give him the occasional Top 6 player to build on. If there's another way of doing the math, it has totally escaped me.
Personally, I think Pop is a GOAT-level coach, when he has GOAT-level talent. He doesn't have that now, and he's not going to get it because of his arrogance. He's counting on some extreme luck with ping pong balls - I think luck isn't a good strategy. I know Tyche personally, and I don't trust her that much.
He reminds me of Luis Scola quite a bit, the craftiness, the footwork, his demeanor... I'd never heard of him before, and he's been much more important for Gonzaga's run so far than the highly touted Holmgreen, who's been a disappointment so far. I'd prefer Eason or Sochan with the first rounders, but if he's still on the board with the 2nd rounder, I'd take him in a heartbeat.
All this talk about tanking is a bunch of crap !!. That being said, Tanking to get a top 5 player does happen, but its usually for one really really good player. (this draft isn't exactly loaded with them) Is that all it takes .... no. Unless you have them already you need some other decent players on the team as well in order to win.
Will one really good player make a difference ? Of course it will, just ask the Cavaliers. With one really good player and a few decent vets they are making a jump from perennial doormats to the playoffs. However look how many years of losing it took for them to get to this point. Don't get me started with the rockets, they have a ton of young talent but they still suck.
The spurs wont lose enough to get a top 3 player, so lets eliminate that. They'll need a lucky bounce of a ping pong ball to even have a chance whether they finish 4 or 14. I know more losses means more ping pong balls/more chances, but all it takes is one.
Bottom line, good young talent from the draft absolutely helps, but its the all stars and seasoned vets that get you across the finish line. Lets do our best to be compe ive. If we make it to the play in game and we lose, we still look OK. If we barely miss the play in, we'll look ok for trying. However if its obvious we are tanking we don't look so good. If we tank and don't get a top pick we look foolish for tanking. We will look even more foolish is we tank and select a crappy player (it does happen), that would be really bad.
Lets try real hard to not look foolish and concentrate on winning where we can and select the best player wherever we land in the draft.
When you are a small market team, stars ONLY come from the draft. Right now, we have a 26.3% chance for the top 4. If we drop just 2 spots, that becomes 13%, and we get a participant ribbon for getting pounded in the 9/10 play in game. At this point in the season, the is just no upside to fighting for a play in spot, and huge upside to taking the foot off the gas.
The young players have played hard, matured, and developed their skills this year, and that’s true whether we finish 7th or 10th in the draft order.
We need to accept that there may be no stars in this draft. OR, that there are no stars at the top of the draft. Holmgren and Smith may be solidifying themselves as 1 and 2. Ivey could be a star, but I wonder if the Spurs think he's a Spurs player. I'm unsure whether Paolo will be a star. I'm very intrigued by Mathurin right now.
I think we may need to understand the Spurs just don't care to pay these top picks high rookie rates when they don't project as stars. AND, that they aren't going to bother tanking in order to get those picks. They're more likely to want players who fit their system and culture. And part of their culture is not overpaying guys. One of the reasons why White isn't around anymore.
Well the obvious question is who will they target in the off-season. Because a late lottery pick isn’t going to move the needle much. So if they’re not going to gun for a top 4 they’ll have to compensate for that in free agency.
They don’t want to pay a rookie they’ll need to pay a FA if they’re not going to tank and expect to compete.
Pay is the last reason the Spurs would hypothetically not be interested in the top 4. You keep saying this and it keeps not being true. Spurs have shown no signs of financial pinching, and have like $30 M in cap room this summer. I’ll repeat what I said last time time you trotted out this crap. They paid Aminu and Hutchison $14 M to go away and NOT play for them. That doesn’t sound like an organization that is financially strapped, or overly concerned with payroll.
Oh, and Bryn Forebes’ $4,5 M turned into Satoransky’s $10M through two uptrades, and they bought out both Dragic from the Toronto trade AND Satoransky from the Forbes chain. Yeah, they’re tight with the money.
I don't disagree with anything you've said. Its all true. But remember its just a chance. Even if we do get lucky, real success doesn't always come with a top5 pick especially with this years so so draft.
Lets look at last years draft (actually a pretty good draft).
#1 pick Cade Cunningham Did he make Detroit significantly better ? He's a good individual player but Detroit is still bad.
#2 pick Jalen Green Same as above. Houston stinks as well.
#3 pick Evan Mobley He has made a big difference for Cleveland. He's what I think you and most spurs fans are thinking when talking about tanking. Got to tank and pick wisely.
#4 pick Scottie Barnes Definitely a good player and has made Toronto better but still a middle of the pack team and first round fodder. Hey we should have their next #1 pick !
#5 pick Jalen Suggs Even with 2 top 10 picks they are still at the bottom of the standings. At the bottom, they won't need that much luck for a decent pick.
We both know that the spurs will need a lucky bounce to get a decent player and even then it doesn't always pay off immediately. The teams above were pretty bad or just lucky enough to move up a bit. I believe in luck like everyone else. A good pick helps, I just believe more in trying to play better now rather than tanking and waiting a year or two or three down the line for it to pay off.
Like you said we're a small market team and with our past history, culture and reputation, the spurs tanking, especially if its obvious like some other teams, is just not a good look no matter what the benefits.
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