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A refreshing post in the midst of all the self proclaimed experts!
The mandatory evacs are underway for the expected storm surge folks, and Galveston leads the way.
Tomorrow, the main freeways are expected to be reversed, so that traffic becomes outbound only.
They are being very clear about the risks and who needs to evac and who doesn't, but urging folks to go if they are concerned. We (spurs_fan_in_exile and myself and our cat, HRH Prince) are not in or near those zones, high raises, bayous or floodplains, so we are staying at this time.
We've got supplies already (that's a crazy story in itself), and they are telling people to keep calm, as they are bringing in more water, batteries, canned goods, gas, etc. They are stockpiling water, ice, medical supplies. The national guard are already here with pumping lines and emergency generators. People are scared, but it's already much clamer, and more organized than Katrina (probably because we've actually had evac plans in place . . . ).
So. Yeah. Right now it almost doesn't matter where it hits, as Houston is going to get slammed with the worst of it.
A refreshing post in the midst of all the self proclaimed experts!
Eas, you guys should be fine. Glad to hear things are under control there.
Y'all stay safe, easjer and other coastal peeps!
Wow a CAT 4 this morning when most reports thought it wouldn't be until tonight, impressive. A shift south would put her more towards Corpus and Port A than at Matagorda correct?
I seemed to remember the '98 flood was a hurricane stalled off the Mexico Pacific coast and it just threw rain bands into our area over a stalled front.
NAM and NGM both show a drift southward over the next 48. GFS is still running...
Depends. A push to the south now means that hte high might be stronger than anticipated by the models - which is a trend - and put it further south on the coast. But this really isn't a push south, just a course slightly south of due west. They are forcasting her to shift more WNW today. We'll see if that happens. The longer she heads on a pure westerly course the further south the risk slides.
Manny, where do you guessitmate it will land?
98 was a upper level low that tapped into tropical moisture from the pacific. A front cleared out hte low and then stalled on the coast, givng us overruning showers for a day or 2 after that, but that was pretty insignificant compared to the 30 inches of rain that we got via the upper level low in those 2 days prior.
I honestly think Port A/Rockport are under the gun.
For what its worth. I'm not a meteorologist. I just play one on the net.
The NGM has been all over the damn place on this one Trav. I don't like it one bit.
I was set on evacuating yesterday, and Jason was coming around to the idea, but we watched everything last night and this morning, and the local folks are doing everything they can to be clear about the threats and what to expect.
I just hope we'll be able to get our marriage license tomorrow (or this afternoon if we close early, and I expect we will), and further get out of town by the middle of next week for the wedding. It's been a dry month, the bayous are low, so once the storm surge subsides, the flooding should dissipate pretty quickly. And ofcourse, they'll be pumping, so that's good too.
I know what you mean...I didn't post it earlier because it was WAY south...even further south than the NAM run...
Oh, and for those of you talking about tropical systems stalling over Central Texas and flooding us out...I don't know right offhand about any others, but the 1978 Guadalupe basin flood was the result of a tropical storm stalling out over this area...
I honestly don't know what to say...this is getting crazy.Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 16
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 21, 2005
...Rita remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...winds now
estimated 140 mph winds...
at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the
Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas
has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast later today or this evening.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of dangerous Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
la ude 24.3 north...longitude 85.9 west or about 260 miles...
west of Key West Florida and about 755 miles east-southeast of
Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...with higher
gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours and could reach category five intensity in
the central Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles. The wind field associated with Rita is forecast to
expand during the next day or two.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb...27.88 inches.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.3 N... 85.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Avila
Gino, one thing you didn't include
I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca.Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 16
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
the reconnaissance plane will not be in the area of Rita until later
this morning. However...satellite images indicate that the cloud
pattern is typical of an intense hurricane with a clear eye
surrounded by very deep convection. Initial intensity is adjusted
upward to 120 knots at this time. However...objective T-numbers from
both TAFB and the University of Wisconsin CIMSS are peaking near
7.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting winds of near 140 knots. I
will wait for the plane to reach Rita to increase the winds
further...if necessary. The environment is conducive for
strengthening and Rita...as Katrina did...will be crossing The Loop
current or an area of high heat content within the next 12 hours or
so. This would aid the intensification process. Thereafter...the
intensity will be controlled by changes in the eyewall which are
difficult to predict. The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.
There has been no change in the steering pattern. Rita is moving
westward at 11 knots south of a strong high. As the high moves
eastward...Rita will gradually begin to move toward the west-
northwest and northwest basically toward the Texas coast. The
official forecast is very close to the model consensus and has not
changed from the previous forecast.
Both the GFS and the GFDL suggest that the wind field will expand.
Therefore the forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordinly. On
this track and due to the large wind field associated with Rita...a
Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon or
tonight.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/1500z 24.3n 85.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 22/0000z 24.5n 87.9w 135 kt
24hr VT 22/1200z 25.0n 90.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 23/0000z 25.7n 92.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/1200z 26.6n 94.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 96.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1200z 32.5n 97.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/1200z 35.5n 97.0w 25 kt...inland
My biggest concern now, after talking to folks here is that we won't be able to get OUT of the city in time for the wedding. I know it's silly to focus on that, but we've had a real long hard road to get here to it, and folks coming in from Canada to be there who can't really afford it, and so I'm wondering if we should just go. . .
. I'm so confused and worried.
Updated 3-day track prediction...
Refresh my memory...when and where?
Yeah 1369, they didn't have the discussion up yet when i posted the advisory. Thanks though.
"I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca."
In all reality, this is probably closest to the truth! You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.
Winds now up to 140 MPH.
Well, the average error for a 3 day prediction like this is only 200 miles. So it could very well be going to Galveston. And even if it doesn't make a direct hit there, they will recive an enourmous amount of storm surge because they will be on the north side.
Make no mistake, barring a big move to the south, Galveston is going to get hit.
I wish this last GFS would hurry up and get posted.
SW side of town, on Gessner between Bellaire and Westpark. Normally we go up Gessner 10-15 minutes to pick up I10 and go straight down I10 to 46 and New Braunfels.
Now that I'm not worried about staying, I'm worried to death about being able to get out. Yes, I have anxiety, so what? But in all seriousness, my boss, who's been here for a long time, says to go. She truly doesn't believe we'll be able to get out. And she's the one who was planning a hurricane party not that long ago.
And of course, there is the idea the car may not be in condition to drive out. Groan. Why now? Why not on our honeymoon? Or last month, when we could blissfully have sat through it?
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