Fischer: Spurs Repeatedly Mentioned By NBA Figures As Potential Home For Young

[scott]

What I actually said was "They're only so bad because he's raw."

the Spurs have three things going against them right now that are contributing to their poor record. 1) Their roster isn't good. 2) They do not have a win-now posture. 3) They lack a star who's able to carry the team.

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument. You say the Spurs are ONLY bad because of reason X... but then go on to list 3 different explanations why they are bad (two of which being the things I've essentially said), none of which are reason X. On the surface, it may seem like your reason 3 ("They lack a star who's able to carry the team") is the same as "Wemby is raw", but they are not and they are actually completely unrelated. It's not Wemby's fault he isn't yet a star who's able to carry the team, after all, he is but a 20-year old rookie. But that is altogether different from stating that Wemby's rawness is the reason the Spurs are bad, when in fact his impact stats tell us otherwise.

If Wemby's rawness is what made the team bad (and the distinction between saying that and saying "he isn't good enough" is semantic in nature), then he wouldn't rank in the 75% in on/off, for example (Source: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/p...eam_efficiency). Is this number largely carried by his defensive prowess? Yes, but defense still remains 50% of the game, after all. They fact that by any measure I am aware of this basketball team is better with Wemby on the court, than it is off it, should be demonstration enough that Wemby's rawness is by no means having a negative impact on this team and making the Spurs "bad" ("Full stop", as you put it). The notion that his rawness it the root of the teams problems is incomprehensible. Would the team be better if he was at his peak? Yes. You could also say that about any player on any team who is not at their peak.

[scott]

I don't see why expected wins should be the metric of a player's impact when they're on the court for the actual wins. The Spurs last year overperformed their expectations. If we're supposed to be looking at a .39 win percentage team over the last 22 games, then them actually winning .27 should be a concern. Last year wasn't just a smooth statistical year either. Guys were hurt, trades happened. The team lost arguably its best player in a trade and lost another to injury most of the season. The Spurs' best lineup last year only got 25 minutes together, as opposed to their best lineup this year already getting 78 minutes. I completely agree with the logic of looking at the team after they fixed their rotation as being more informative, but I also don't think it's fair to compare that to the chaos of the previous year without the context. The posture was even less win-now. The lack of a star was even more apparent. So was the roster worse? As I said in my other post, Poeltl is an underrated part of the story. But why was that team able to scrap together wins beyond what their talent should've allowed but this team can't seem to hold onto a lead? Why was last year's team able to beat 11 teams above .500 while this year's team has only been able to beat four?

I do think you can make an argument that the team is facing a challenge of trying to integrate a raw star and that that is having effects on their ability to put together a lot of wins. That's not the only reason, and as objective keeps pointing out, it doesn't make sense to believe Wemby has much to do with how guys can't seem to shoot anymore. It looks like last year the Spurs were a better team in clutch situations, though they weren't good last year either. Were they better able to execute a game plan last year? Are teams taking them more seriously this year and not letting themselves be caught off guard as often? I think you can actually make that argument. But I also think there's a reason why folks thought the Spurs last year underperformed compared to what they would've done if they were healthy. The scrappiness we see in some of those failed fourth-quarter comebacks was stronger last year. That's not Victor's fault, but I do think integrating him given his rawness makes it harder to have the same level of sustained stochastic bursts.

There is a straight forward explanation of why EW% is a good measurement tool: because variance is a real thing. Do you get a trophy at the end of the season for having a good EW%? No, of course not - but that metric is a good indicator of how well a team performed with variance accounted for. A 41-41 team who wins all it's games by a single point but loses all its games by 20+ is much different than a team who wins all its games by 20+ and loses all it's games by 1. Yes, they are both 41-41, but there is a statistically identifiable difference in the quality of those teams.

There are purists who will undoubtedly ignore this Bill James/Sabermetrics/Billy Beane Moneyball stuff... but since we are talking about things like PIE, RAPTOR, BPM, WS, etc... that doesn't appear to be the case here. If WS is a valuable metric for you, certainly EW% should be too.

Vassell's absence last year that you bring up is a fantastic call out and a Key Variable. His On/Off also ranks in the 75+ percentile this year (led by his defensive On/Off, quite notably). Just as with Wemby, the Spurs are better when Devin is on the floor.

Along those lines... the player who's on/off is the most pronounced on the 2023-24 San Antonio Spurs: Tre Jones, who ranks in the 97th percentile in on/off. Of course, when evaluating on/off it's not just the "on" that matters... and in the case of Tre, Devin and Wemby... their high ratings are also a function of just how bad the "off" is (meaning, the players who replace them when they go to the bench).

[Spursfanfromafar]

The other point that I wanted to add to what you say, scott is that there is no contradiction between saying that Wemby isn't an all star as yet and saying that the team needs to improve around him. Now one could look at KD's rookie and sop re seasons and say that's a model but where is the talent around Wemby that matched with that of KD's support cast (Westbrook joined in the second season and Harden and Ibaka in the following ones). Getting such talent, two future HoFs and one very useful role player, isn't a given from the draft and I don't trust Brian Wright based on his track record either.

My point is that the Spurs need to improve around Wemby as much as he does and it will not help him improve or the Spurs improve if they prefer for suck for years by relying only on the draft and the existing mediocre talent beyond Vassell. Besides Wemby has shown that he is no ordinary 1st pick and is already elite on the defensive end (elite here is just a qualifying word..he is other wordly on defense). Getting more competent three point shooters, playmakers and on the ball defenders are a must for the Spurs to continue their progression instead of being a Dr Jekyll (with Wemby, Vassell and Tre Jones on) and Mr Hyde (when Wemby leaves the floor) team for the foreseeable future with the only addendums being inexperienced rookies.

There is a middle ground between building on a "timeline" with a long horizon and being overzealous and getting too many veterans and going the Cleveland of James and Pelicans of Anthony Davis way. That middle ground is to use a portion of the draft war chest to get a functionally good player to complement Wemby, besides a veteran or two more and using the rest of the draft assets to groom more talent. It isn't rocket science.

[rankingtear]

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument. You say the Spurs are ONLY bad because of reason X... but then go on to list 3 different explanations why they are bad (two of which being the things I've essentially said), none of which are reason X. On the surface, it may seem like your reason 3 ("They lack a star who's able to carry the team") is the same as "Wemby is raw", but they are not and they are actually completely unrelated. It's not Wemby's fault he isn't yet a star who's able to carry the team, after all, he is but a 20-year old rookie. But that is altogether different from stating that Wemby's rawness is the reason the Spurs are bad, when in fact his impact stats tell us otherwise.

If Wemby's rawness is what made the team bad (and the distinction between saying that and saying "he isn't good enough" is semantic in nature), then he wouldn't rank in the 75% in on/off, for example (Source: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/p...eam_efficiency). Is this number largely carried by his defensive prowess? Yes, but defense still remains 50% of the game, after all. They fact that by any measure I am aware of this basketball team is better with Wemby on the court, than it is off it, should be demonstration enough that Wemby's rawness is by no means having a negative impact on this team and making the Spurs "bad" ("Full stop", as you put it). The notion that his rawness it the root of the teams problems is incomprehensible. Would the team be better if he was at his peak? Yes. You could also say that about any player on any team who is not at their peak.

He is an inefficient high turnover high usage guy. His impact on defense relative to other rim protectors is much closer to his impact on offense relative to other high usage players.

[Chinook]

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument.

You still seem to be missing the point. You keep reading it as "They're ONLY so bad because he's raw" and interpreting that to say Wemby is the sole reason why they're bad and that it's somehow his fault. The way I keep saying it is "They're only SO bad because he's raw". I've consistently explained directly after that statement exactly why I think that. If Wemby were more actualized, the team would be better. You and some other posters haven't committed to that statement one way or the other, and that is whatever because it's not something we can test. By the time Wemby is that much better, the team will hopefully also be better. But if you agree that a better version of Wemby would result in a team that plays better, then you agree with the point I'm making. If you still believe you don't, then you aren't interpreting the point I'm making as I am intending it.

You need all three of those factors to be as bad as the Spurs have been. My point is that that third condition is also true. A lot of people don't think that third condition is true. They don't appreciate how far Wemby has to go and where he is on his timeline. My point is that if Wemby were as far along as those posters believed, he would be carrying the roster, as bad as it is, to more wins. That is not blaming Victor. It's not his fault that some posters refuse to look at him objectively. Dude is having a successful year adjusting to the NBA and exploring his talents with as little pressure as possible considering his hype. You were very adamant that you considered this year a failure because the team didn't see the increase in wins you felt they should have had with him. And rather than stepping back and saying "Maybe I should reevaluate and give him the same grace other rookies get rather than expecting him to be the super-GOAT and have a legendary career from jump", you instead blame the team for the in disconnect, and then you extend your blame of the team to be what Wemby might be thinking and using that to feed into concerns that he's going to want to leave. That creates this feedback loop that seemingly justifies why the Spurs should feel a bunch of urgency to make huge moves to improve around Wemby before it's too late.

I just have to throw my hands up at it all. I'm not acting superior and saying I'm reasonable in the face of your irrationality or anything like that. But I basically didn't pay any attention to the Wemby hype until right before the draft. I watched a couple of highlights here or there, but in reality I was more concerned with the other prospects given the lotto odds. I posted way more about Scoot, Miller and the Thompsons than Wemby. So for me, the Spurs winning the lotto was just cool. It was nice that they would get the guy they want (whoever that would be). Don't get me wrong -- I flew to Vegas and watched him play his first game in a Spurs uniform. So I cared, but it wasn't the culmination of years of wanting him like it was for a lot of people. That might make me blind to the true extent of the gift the Spurs received. I may be less objective in this regard than you then. But from my vantage point, I have very few expectations for him beyond him being a good player who improves and will hopefully be the key to another era of winning.

So for me, it doesn't mean anything to go "oh, Victor's not ready yet." That doesn't cost me anything. I wouldn't expect anyone else to be ready in his situation, even other blue-chippers. Like with anyone else, I think there's plenty of time to figure this out. I am fully prepared for years of building and for a lot more losses. I've watched nearly every game despite that because I'm interested in seeing them grow. I don't have any expectations complicating that enjoyment. I was frustrated when Pop was doing suboptimal things, but then he fixed them and I was fine again. I want the team to be aggressive in adding talent, but more than anything I want them to do whatever plan they have in mind to make this work with confidence. Because I don't see any special pressure to win with Victor now, I think they have the whole playbook available for how they could proceed.

To wrap that tangent up and tied it back in, I think it's might help to understand where I'm coming from when I say "They're only so bad because he's raw." It's not about blame because I don't think anything blame-worthy is actually happening. I don't see this season as something someone has to be held accountable for. I of course want them to progress, but I also think progression zoomed down to the daily level is going to look a lot like stagnation and am prepared for that. Maybe I'm too prepared for that. Maybe I'm catching a bit of a whiff from old habits. But I think it's too early to tell. Regardless, I think I'm done explaining this. I can't make you accept the validity of my argument, and I certainly can't make you agree with it. If you think I'm off the reservation or have a hate boner for Victor, I can't stop you. Obviously we're going to continue talking about the games and the moves the team can make going forward. But maybe after seeing where I'm coming from, we can avoid some of the further flash points over the semantics of some of the posts.

[Spursfanfromafar]

He is an inefficient high turnover high usage guy. His impact on defense relative to other rim protectors is much closer to his impact on offense relative to other high usage players.

His efficiency has increased steadily month after month on offense. On defense, his DPM (Defensive Plus Minus) depsite playing with a bunch of lousy on ball defenders is the top 10 in the league and 4th among bigs. Check -
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

His DPM is on the 98th percentile and OPM on 77th percentile. Only Joel Embiid has a better two way rating than that among top 10 defenders. Wemby is already a top 25-30 player in the league and yes, he still has some ways to go based on his talent and work ethic. But he isn't the normal rookie/inexperienced player who needs patient handling and kid gloves and a large horizon to become an All NBA player. He is on track to get there next season. Now that means the Spurs should be able to get more talent around him to maximise his ability and output on floor.

[Chinook]

The other point that I wanted to add to what you say, scott is that there is no contradiction between saying that Wemby isn't an all star as yet and saying that the team needs to improve around him. Now one could look at KD's rookie and sop re seasons and say that's a model but where is the talent around Wemby that matched with that of KD's support cast (Westbrook joined in the second season and Harden and Ibaka in the following ones). Getting such talent, two future HoFs and one very useful role player, isn't a given from the draft and I don't trust Brian Wright based on his track record either.

If the Spurs don't think Wright can draft, they need to get rid of him. That's the main part of the job for the time being. The Spurs have to proceed with confidence in that area, even though I understand why fans would be more uncertain.

Anyway, Durant got a better supporting cast, but as I said, he saw a massive explosion in his own performance. He went from an inefficient underdeveloped player to a talented player on a poor team to a superstar in three years. Jeff Green improved. Westbrook improved. Harden was a decent player from jump. But Durant gained eight win-shares by himself and took his WS/48 from .040 to .132 to .238 (which is amazing, in cause you aren't familiar with the stat). He went from 179th in his first season, to 56th in the league in his second year to second in his third year. He did that on a young team that was not trying to win until his fifth season. I know KD's GOAT candidacy is always going to be complicated by his choices and antics, but his early career is makes a ton of sense to look to for Wemby's, much more than Lebron's, Jordan's, Duncan's or Doncic's.

[rankingtear]

His efficiency has increased steadily month after month on offense. On defense, his DPM (Defensive Plus Minus) depsite playing with a bunch of lousy on ball defenders is the top 10 in the league and 4th among bigs. Check -
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

His DPM is on the 98th percentile and OPM on 77th percentile. Only Joel Embiid has a better two way rating than that among top 10 defenders. Wemby is already a top 25-30 player in the league and yes, he still has some ways to go based on his talent and work ethic. But he isn't the normal rookie/inexperienced player who needs patient handling and kid gloves and a large horizon to become an All NBA player. He is on track to get there next season. Now that means the Spurs should be able to get more talent around him to maximise his ability and output on floor.

Now do turnovers.

[scott]

You still seem to be missing the point. You keep reading it as "They're ONLY so bad because he's raw" and interpreting that to say Wemby is the sole reason why they're bad and that it's somehow his fault. The way I keep saying it is "They're only SO bad because he's raw". I've consistently explained directly after that statement exactly why I think that. If Wemby were more actualized, the team would be better. You and some other posters haven't committed to that statement one way or the other, and that is whatever because it's not something we can test. By the time Wemby is that much better, the team will hopefully also be better. But if you agree that a better version of Wemby would result in a team that plays better, then you agree with the point I'm making. If you still believe you don't, then you aren't interpreting the point I'm making as I am intending it.

You need all three of those factors to be as bad as the Spurs have been. My point is that that third condition is also true. A lot of people don't think that third condition is true. They don't appreciate how far Wemby has to go and where he is on his timeline. My point is that if Wemby were as far along as those posters believed, he would be carrying the roster, as bad as it is, to more wins. That is not blaming Victor. It's not his fault that some posters refuse to look at him objectively. Dude is having a successful year adjusting to the NBA and exploring his talents with as little pressure as possible considering his hype. You were very adamant that you considered this year a failure because the team didn't see the increase in wins you felt they should have had with him. And rather than stepping back and saying "Maybe I should reevaluate and give him the same grace other rookies get rather than expecting him to be the super-GOAT and have a legendary career from jump", you instead blame the team for the in disconnect, and then you extend your blame of the team to be what Wemby might be thinking and using that to feed into concerns that he's going to want to leave. That creates this feedback loop that seemingly justifies why the Spurs should feel a bunch of urgency to make huge moves to improve around Wemby before it's too late.

I just have to throw my hands up at it all. I'm not acting superior and saying I'm reasonable in the face of your irrationality or anything like that. But I basically didn't pay any attention to the Wemby hype until right before the draft. I watched a couple of highlights here or there, but in reality I was more concerned with the other prospects given the lotto odds. I posted way more about Scoot, Miller and the Thompsons than Wemby. So for me, the Spurs winning the lotto was just cool. It was nice that they would get the guy they want (whoever that would be). Don't get me wrong -- I flew to Vegas and watched him play his first game in a Spurs uniform. So I cared, but it wasn't the culmination of years of wanting him like it was for a lot of people. That might make me blind to the true extent of the gift the Spurs received. I may be less objective in this regard than you then. But from my vantage point, I have very few expectations for him beyond him being a good player who improves and will hopefully be the key to another era of winning.

So for me, it doesn't mean anything to go "oh, Victor's not ready yet." That doesn't cost me anything. I wouldn't expect anyone else to be ready in his situation, even other blue-chippers. Like with anyone else, I think there's plenty of time to figure this out. I am fully prepared for years of building and for a lot more losses. I've watched nearly every game despite that because I'm interested in seeing them grow. I don't have any expectations complicating that enjoyment. I was frustrated when Pop was doing suboptimal things, but then he fixed them and I was fine again. I want the team to be aggressive in adding talent, but more than anything I want them to do whatever plan they have in mind to make this work with confidence. Because I don't see any special pressure to win with Victor now, I think they have the whole playbook available for how they could proceed.

To wrap that tangent up and tied it back in, I think it's might help to understand where I'm coming from when I say "They're only so bad because he's raw." It's not about blame because I don't think anything blame-worthy is actually happening. I don't see this season as something someone has to be held accountable for. I of course want them to progress, but I also think progression zoomed down to the daily level is going to look a lot like stagnation and am prepared for that. Maybe I'm too prepared for that. Maybe I'm catching a bit of a whiff from old habits. But I think it's too early to tell. Regardless, I think I'm done explaining this. I can't make you accept the validity of my argument, and I certainly can't make you agree with it. If you think I'm off the reservation or have a hate boner for Victor, I can't stop you. Obviously we're going to continue talking about the games and the moves the team can make going forward. But maybe after seeing where I'm coming from, we can avoid some of the further flash points over the semantics of some of the posts.

The "ONLY so" versus "only SO" distinction does help me understand your point better, though it's still a strange argument because you can literally make it about any player or thing:

• The Spurs are only SO bad because Julian Champagnie isn't a starting caliber SF.
• The Spurs are only SO bad because Zach Collins is atrocious and there is such a massive drop off when he comes on the court.
• The Spurs are only SO bad because they can't make 3P.

And so on...

One other point of clarification, I consider this season a failure because I am measuring it against what Wemby and Pop communicated would cons ute success. In Wemby's own words:

Having a better record for my team than last year," Wembanyama said on ESPN when asked what would cons ute success in his rookie year.

Pop's pre-season statements about winning have been shared ad nauseum here, so no need to repeat those as well.

These are the markers the team set, not me. In my opinion, Wemby has done his part to contribute to achieving success, but the Head Coach and the FO have not. I do not think they can simply say "haha, jk... it's really just about development. Be patient!" That's a convenient excuse for not living to the expectations one sets for themselves. But, as I've stated in other threads, there is no one to hold Pop and the FO accountable. They have the best jobs in the NBA... a team with the best prospect maybe EVER with no expectations, no accountability, but the biggest paychecks in the league. Where do I sign up for the working world equivalent of this job?

[jesterbobman]

I don't think a Vic / Trae / Devin combo is good enough for a le team, and isn't close in the immediate future. For instance, Wemby should be better than Evan Mobley next year (I think he is now), but Mitc > Trae, Allen > Collins, Darius Garland > Vassell (well, this is close)...Supporting cast is young and some time away. I think Pop was pretty clear on building slow, and I think that's the right approach. If you compared to the Nuggets, even very generously calling Wemby = Jokic, I'd take Murray / KCP / Porter / Gordon over a Trae / Vassell / Keldon / Sochan group, and I think that's pretty clear.

I'd look to build slow, use cap space (Overpay Mike Conley for 2 years?, especially if no Topic in draft, another position if so) and some low tier assets (Branham or Wesley, the collected second round picks, the Charlotte pick, some finicking around with draft order to move down a few spots) to improve the supporting cast to get some more winning culture, but still mostly keeping powder dry, with an intention of continuing the slow build, adding more and more high quality (cost controlled) young players, with old dudes who are still pretty good providing a more competent base and day to day professional mentoring whilst that group develops.

[objective]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Now do turnovers.

Go read up on EPM.

[onechance87]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

sob....i hope we get the raptors pick this year...This may be our only chance to get it....I expect them to
be bad next few years,And with that i expect them to truly tank to try get flagg or boozer next couple of years.

[rankingtear]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

I guess, but DEN, BOS, OKC and ORL are built with other teams future pick. They are doing fine. Everybody gets worse the more they play with Trae those ATL picks would be high lottery.

[JPB]

Wemby is an all star next year, with hopefully a real system around him rather than just "OK, kid, just show us what you can do so we know how to use you".

[JPB]

Not sure 10th in the East at 24-31, (2.5 games above 11th placed BKN, which is not exactly "comfortable") is what The Hawks were expecting when they traded for Murray... They're playing BKN twice on B2B after the ASG, could be interesting.

[RC_Drunkford]

My bad. Hadn’t checked in a week or so.

another sign that you have no clue what you are talking about for the most part

[CGD]

sob....i hope we get the raptors pick this year...This may be our only chance to get it....I expect them to
be bad next few years,And with that i expect them to truly tank to try get flagg or boozer next couple of years.

If they’re serious about Trae, it maybe actually be better for it not to convey this year so they can use it in the trade.

[mo7888]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

[exstatic]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

I think it’s in between, like when the new league year starts in July. His extension kicks in, and then the weirdness of trading him last year goes away.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

Collins signed his extension on Oct 22nd, so the 6 month trade ineligibility ends on April 22nd, or around the time the NBA season ends. Spurs can trade him after that.

[rankingtear]

Wemby doesn't strike me as being as impatient as Luka, but still... If Dallas had been as patient with Dennis Smith Jr. as people around here want to be with some of the young Spurs who haven't shown much promise yet, and tried to slowly build around Luka through the draft, he'd have been out of Dallas by now.

DAL traded their pick the following year to get Luka. This is not an option for them.

[spurraider21]

Now do turnovers.

Would factor into his OPM and heck even the DPM to an extent since turnovers usually lead to scoring opportunities

[CGD]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

It kind of seems like he would HAVE to use his deal in any Trae trade, right?
Otherwise not sure how they get close to the 40M, even if they include Keldon (or less likely, Devin). Maybe guarantee Graham?

Seems like the framework would be Keldon/Zach/Picks for Trae, with the teams haggling over the picks.

[couchman]

I still think Trae would be great with Wemby, and that with the right pieces around them we could contend, but I'm convinced the Front Office won't do this, even if he's offered to us at a reasonable price.