Race To The # 1 Seed, Spurs Or Thunder?

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Based on this data only, does it implicate that the Spurs are very lucky (7-0 for 3-point-or-less games) and not as good as the record indicates?

No it indicates we are clutch in those type of situations..

[letmk]

No it indicates we are clutch in those type of situations..

Of course I would like to think that's because the Spurs are clutch. Just my gut feeling that OKC's 9-4 and Miami's 8-5 are more "real." Like tie-breaks in tennis, great players may have 2-1 ratio (or somewhat better) record, but not in Spurs' 7-0 territory. I'm just afraid that it would be evened out eventually, esp. during the playoffs.

[spursfaninla]

Of course I would like to think that's because the Spurs are clutch. Just my gut feeling that OKC's 9-4 and Miami's 8-5 are more "real." Like tie-breaks in tennis, great players may have 2-1 ratio (or somewhat better) record, but not in Spurs' 7-0 territory. I'm just afraid that it would be evened out eventually, esp. during the playoffs.

Probabilities say you are right, Spurs are slightly "lucky" with their close games. But they rarely lose by more than 10, and they beat a lot of teams by more than 10 according to the above stats. That is why point margin is a good predictor of playing strength: if you beat teams by an average of many points, they have not chance to get lucky and steal a win.

Spurs are +13 average margin of victory the last 25% of the season per ESPN hollinger rankings. Next best is clippers with about 9. After that you have some teams with about 5-6. Spurs are not just winning on this streak, they are steam-rolling.

[boutons_deux]

"That is why point margin is a good predictor of playing strength"

"my" best indicator of (playoff) team strength is road record, and nobody's even close to Spurs' RR.

[Galileo]

It really isn't a race. The Spurs would need to beat the Thunder outright to be the #1 seed because they lost the season series. They aren't geting the #1 seed without Parker. Lastly, sloppy offense + mediocre defense = no chance. The Thunder would literally have to fall apart completely. The Spurs need to concentrate, holding on to the #2 seed because it's far from a lock.

[Galileo]

Thunder already won the season series tbh. Need to see a bit more of OKC to decide now that they've lost Porkins, but as of now I think they get the #1 seed.

[Robz4000]

Their D has gone to without Porkins and Sefolosha. However, that said:

arrogant Spur fan

[ElNono]

Rob trying to that ...

[Hoops Czar]

Why not? Spurs fans have been spinning that for the first half of the season whenever injuries occurred. At least he didn't say those games don't count because OKC wasn't full strength.

[Chinook]

Doesn't really seem like it needed spinning, Hoop. The Spurs are clearly clicking well after they got healthy. It's hard to rag on people making excuses when they end up being right.

[Gummi Clutch]

I don't think the thunder can catch up unless the spurs implode.

[Robz4000]

Not gonna count my tacos until they have it locked up tbh.

[Hoops Czar]

Doesn't really seem like it needed spinning, Hoop. The Spurs are clearly clicking well after they got healthy. It's hard to rag on people making excuses when they end up being right.

And OKC clearly isn't healthy, which is the biggest reason they've fallen off the pace. It's not a matter of being right or wrong. It's OK to use the injury excuse when it's the Spurs but dismiss it when it's some other contender.

[Chinook]

And OKC clearly isn't healthy, which is the biggest reason they've fallen off the pace. It's not a matter of being right or wrong. It's OK to use the injury excuse when it's the Spurs but dismiss it when it's some other contender.

Don't believe anyone's dismissed the injury excuse as it relates to OKC. You were among those who acted like an injured and out-of-sync Spurs team was going to last all season. No one thinks OKC won't be a really tough out in the WCF.

[ElNono]

It really isn't a race. The Spurs would need to beat the Thunder outright to be the #1 seed because they lost the season series. They aren't geting the #1 seed without Parker. Lastly, sloppy offense + mediocre defense = no chance. The Thunder would literally have to fall apart completely. The Spurs need to concentrate, holding on to the #2 seed because it's far from a lock.

It's not a matter of being right or wrong.

[ElNono]

Not gonna count my tacos until they have it locked up tbh.

true, although I would say the #2 seed is certainly a lock at this point...

[Robz4000]

true, although I would say the #2 seed is certainly a lock at this point...

Easily. , the Spurs will have the #2 overall seed at the least.

[HI-FI]

it's going to be an interesting finish. I could see the Thunder make a strong push for the top spot, but they might wear themselves down in the process.

I'm grateful Spurs are in a very interesting position, they have breathing room to make a more balanced decision. I also like what Pop has to say on this, that health and rhythm are paramount.

[ElNono]

Ultimately if you're champ-worthy, you have to be able to win on the road... just how it is... the whole seeding thing is pretty overrated, IMO

[cd021]

Ultimately if you're champ-worthy, you have to be able to win on the road... just how it is... the whole seeding thing is pretty overrated, IMO

That is generally true but Spurs haven't won in OKC since Kawhi was a rookie. 0-6 there. Plus Durant has been particularly lethal at home, hitting nearly 45% of his 3's. I'd expect more even calls in San Antonio than in OKC.

[cd021]

Updated to include tonight's games (3/30/2014)

Spurs-19-1 (.950)

Clippers 15-4 (.789)

Heat-13-8 (.619)

Thunder 11-7 (.611)

Pacers-12-10 (.545)

[ElNono]

That is generally true but Spurs haven't won in OKC since Kawhi was a rookie. 0-6 there. Plus Durant has been particularly lethal at home, hitting nearly 45% of his 3's. I'd expect more even calls in San Antonio than in OKC.

So you're saying we're 0-0 in the playoffs against them since they traded Harden? Looks pretty even to me...

[cd021]

So you're saying we're 0-0 in the playoffs against them since they traded Harden? Looks pretty even to me...

Fair enough. OKC probably isn't as good as they were now while we are better than the '11 team. I'm still unconvinced that the Spurs can win more than a game in OKC.

The Thunders defense has slipped recently and several players in their rotation are liabilities on that end (Butler and Fisher, who are used to close out game) When they get Perkins and Sef. back there defense should improve but their offense may slip a bit. Perkins ORtg is just 82/100, While he does a good job of guarding Duncan in the post, his lack of offense allows for other teams to ignore him.

Sef. has regressed as a shooter (33% 3pt)and Butler is hitting only 35% of his 5 3pt attempts. Thats 2 rotation player who can't shoot consistently from deep.

As for the Spurs, Diaw can draw Ibaka several feet further out of the paint. The Spurs offense is more diverse with less reliance on Parker. The series would be a toss up if Spurs have home court and probably 40/60 if OKC has home court.

[ElNono]

Fair enough. OKC probably isn't as good as they were now while we are better than the '11 team. I'm still unconvinced that the Spurs can win more than a game in OKC.

The Thunders defense has slipped recently and several players in their rotation are liabilities on that end (Butler and Fisher, who are used to close out game) When they get Perkins and Sef. back there defense should improve but their offense may slip a bit. Perkins ORtg is just 82/100, While he does a good job of guarding Duncan in the post, his lack of offense allows for other teams to ignore him.

Sef. has regressed as a shooter (33% 3pt)and Butler is hitting only 35% of his 5 3pt attempts. Thats 2 rotation player who can't shoot consistently from deep.

As for the Spurs, Diaw can draw Ibaka several feet further out of the paint. The Spurs offense is more diverse with less reliance on Parker. The series would be a toss up if Spurs have home court and probably 40/60 if OKC has home court.

Fisher is gonna be a PITA... that's the only thing I'm 100% sure in a possible series... but I rather not look too far ahead and enjoy our team right now... they're playing the best I've ever seen them play, IMO. I'll worry about an OKC playoff matchup when and if we get there...

[cd021]

Bogut likely out for the game on 4/1 in San Antonio

http://tracking.si.com/2014/03/30/wa...9-a0807a955125


David Lee appears questionable. He missed the last 2 games but will be on their road trip



http://www.sportsinjuryalert.com/2014/03/warriors-david-lee-and-andrew-bogut.html



Spurs could face GSW without both starting big men. Jackson started Speights and O'neal against the Knicks last night.