Rita and Corpus Christi

[easjer]

A Port Lavaca hit is actually worse for Houston/Galveston than a direct hit, if you can believe it.

[xrayzebra]

Winds now up to 140 MPH.

Yep, if this thing goes into Corpus, we can expect a big blow and lots of rain here in SA. Does anyone remember Carla in 61 or 62. SA got lots of both, but Austin got a bigger hit. Really made a mess of things there.

[travis2]

SW side of town, on Gessner between Bellaire and Westpark. Normally we go up Gessner 10-15 minutes to pick up I10 and go straight down I10 to 46 and New Braunfels.

Now that I'm not worried about staying, I'm worried to death about being able to get out. Yes, I have anxiety, so what? But in all seriousness, my boss, who's been here for a long time, says to go. She truly doesn't believe we'll be able to get out. And she's the one who was planning a hurricane party not that long ago.

And of course, there is the idea the car may not be in condition to drive out. Groan. Why now? Why not on our honeymoon? Or last month, when we could blissfully have sat through it?

So you would want you and your wedding guests to go to New Braunfels?

[travis2]

Well, the average error for a 3 day prediction like this is only 200 miles. So it could very well be going to Galveston. And even if it doesn't make a direct hit there, they will recive an enourmous amount of storm surge because they will be on the north side.

Make no mistake, barring a big move to the south, Galveston is going to get hit.

I wish this last GFS would hurry up and get posted.

12Z NAM is finished. 12Z GFS just started running about 20 minutes ago...

[travis2]

12Z NAM has it slowing down a bit, then plowing into Corpus Christi sometime Saturday PM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...p_l_loop.shtml

[travis2]

Here's the last frame in the NAM sequence...00UTC 9/25 = 1900L 9/24

[easjer]

So you would want you and your wedding guests to go to New Braunfels?

That's where the wedding is scheduled. My family is there, and my fi is from SA.

Most of my wedding guests are evacuating. I know how awful it sounds to be focused on this, but it's been two years, and moving beyond a suicide attempt and cutting ties with family to get to this point. This is something we need to do, and I don't know if I can handle it being pushed back.

I dont' care if no one but the preacher and Jason and I are there. But by god, we need to be there.

[1369]

"I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca."
In all reality, this is probably closest to the truth! You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.

I honestly think that the media is saying Galveston/Houston because it is a known city that people can identify with. If they were to say Bay City/Palacios, no one outside of folks on the coast woulod know where they are talking about. Watch, if the track shifts down the coast, the media will start saying Corpus Christi a bunch.

I'm on a jobsite outside of Ingleside, and word around the water cooler is that there is already a voluntary evac order for Port Aransas and Corpus could be later in the day.

I know tomorrow when I leave, I sure won't be heading up 37 if Corpus calls for an evac.

[travis2]

That's where the wedding is scheduled. My family is there, and my fi is from SA.

Most of my wedding guests are evacuating. I know how awful it sounds to be focused on this, but it's been two years, and moving beyond a suicide attempt and cutting ties with family to get to this point. This is something we need to do, and I don't know if I can handle it being pushed back.

I dont' care if no one but the preacher and Jason and I are there. But by god, we need to be there.

Well...given that the current track predictions are heading down coast, you might well want to head out soon. The is going to be hitting the fan all along I-10 between Houston and SA. So even if you don't get a hard hit in Houston, the route is going to get hit...

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, have you noticed that the NAM has verified quite well with this storm? I wonder if it is picking up on something the others are missing out on?

[MannyIsGod]

I honestly think that the media is saying Galveston/Houston because it is a known city that people can identify with. If they were to say Bay City/Palacios, no one outside of folks on the coast woulod know where they are talking about. Watch, if the track shifts down the coast, the media will start saying Corpus Christi a bunch.

I'm on a jobsite outside of Ingleside, and word around the water cooler is that there is already a voluntary evac order for Port Aransas and Corpus could be later in the day.

I know tomorrow when I leave, I sure won't be heading up 37 if Corpus calls for an evac.

I'd cut across all the way to 35 if I were you. I had the unpleasent joy of sitting on 37 during the Brett evac. Didn't move worth a damn.

[CosmicCowboy]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 16

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005


the reconnaissance plane will not be in the area of Rita until later
this morning. However...satellite images indicate that the cloud
pattern is typical of an intense hurricane with a clear eye
surrounded by very deep convection. Initial intensity is adjusted
upward to 120 knots at this time. However...objective T-numbers from
both TAFB and the University of Wisconsin CIMSS are peaking near
7.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting winds of near 140 knots. I
will wait for the plane to reach Rita to increase the winds
further...if necessary. The environment is conducive for
strengthening and Rita...as Katrina did...will be crossing The Loop
current or an area of high heat content within the next 12 hours or
so. This would aid the intensification process. Thereafter...the
intensity will be controlled by changes in the eyewall which are
difficult to predict. The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.


There has been no change in the steering pattern. Rita is moving
westward at 11 knots south of a strong high. As the high moves
eastward...Rita will gradually begin to move toward the west-
northwest and northwest basically toward the Texas coast. The
official forecast is very close to the model consensus and has not
changed from the previous forecast.

Both the GFS and the GFDL suggest that the wind field will expand.
Therefore the forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordinly. On
this track and due to the large wind field associated with Rita...a
Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon or
tonight.


Forecaster Avila




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/1500z 24.3n 85.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 22/0000z 24.5n 87.9w 135 kt
24hr VT 22/1200z 25.0n 90.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 23/0000z 25.7n 92.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/1200z 26.6n 94.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 96.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1200z 32.5n 97.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/1200z 35.5n 97.0w 25 kt...inland

[travis2]

Travis, have you noticed that the NAM has verified quite well with this storm? I wonder if it is picking up on something the others are missing out on?

I don't know what assumptions it uses for its model...but it seems to have projected that ridge to hold up longer than the others, that's for sure...

[travis2]

Manny, you do know where to look for the run status on the models, right?

[1369]

I'd cut across all the way to 35 if I were you. I had the unpleasent joy of sitting on 37 during the Brett evac. Didn't move worth a damn.

What I'll do is head out of here through Bayside/Refugio and then up through Goliad/Yorktown and pick up 87 outside Stockdale and take that into town.

But, I may ride it out here at the job as the plant is looking for folks to stay behind and then do a cold start after the storm passes.

Looking at that model analysis, things might get real interesting down this way.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, no provide me with a link.

I'm just looking at NCEP.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[travis2]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

[MannyIsGod]

Oh bad ass. Thanks Travis!

[Hook Dem]

Copy that I'll be headed to Harlingen rather than SA but I'm hearing from the yolkels that this is going to be alot closer to CC than people think.

I'd like to stay if its not a direct hit but the wife says go I'll go I'm really more scared of my place getting looted than hit with damage.

Bishop...Get out! I was in Corpus in 1970 when Celia hit Corpus. I lived in Annaville and lost the roof off my house. It's not worth it!

[Shelly]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.

[travis2]

Oh bad ass. Thanks Travis!

They have partials up for the 12Z GFS...precip models, anyway. GFS still has it making a turn towards Matagorda Bay...

You pays your money and you takes your chances...

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, look at upper air plots. The 500mb ones are the best because they show the steering currents.

It is coming in a bit further south and west. Not much, but if the next couple of runs do what this one did, Corpus will be much more under the gun.

[sa_butta]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.

I was thinking the same thing and wondering why people will be evacuated here, when we may see some serious flooding as well.

[ObiwanGinobili]

just got phone call from my mother inlaw.....

so now the official # of people at my place will be 9..plus the 3 that live here.
2 from clute (my BF and her hubby) under mandatory evac.. they will be here tonight.
7 from victoria - my mom, father, bro's and sis... and my in-laws.... they will be here thursday.

I'm definally making a trip to sav-a-lot ASAP to stock up on thier 29cent canned goods. even if we don;t lose electricity here.... I'm still feeding an Army.

[MiNuS]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.