Mahinmi and Scola to meet

[pad300]

Nice use of math but what you forgot to factor in is Scola's second contract in the NBA. If he explodes on the scene as many in this thread are predicting, his second contract in the NBA is going to dwarf anything he could get anywhere in the world.

Even if Scola himself thinks there is only a 50/50 chance that he would garner anything close to a Manu type contract, it's worth the risk to Scola. If he bombs out, he still can cash back in on a Euro team.

Add to the equation a 50% possibility that he's going to get a Manu contract and then let me know what makes more sense, signing a 3-year $6M or signing a long-term contract in Europe.

Thanks.



Exactly.

The problem with factoring the second contract in is that there is no chance in he gets a Manu level contract. He'd be 30 when the 1st 3 year contract expires. Manu was 25 when he hit became a restricted FA. You don't give 5 or 6 year contracts to anything short of superstars when their 30 (ie he has to match say Elton Brand... good luck on Scola). The second NBA contract will be for less than the MLE, if he even gets that. Meanwhile, If he bombs, he's stuck here for 3 years sitting on the end of the bench, and reducing his value in Europe all the while, as he is getting older. Not to mention the possibility of having an accident (hit by a car say), and never getting another contract.

When his buyout comes down, he may come over for the money your offering, IF he is still willing to offer us a discount to play in the NBA, AND the Spurs haven't pissed him off enough shoving BS in his face for the last 3 years... Chance the FO is willing to take I guess.

BTW as far Javtokas is concerned, there is very similar math. The Spurs are clearly trying to lowball both players. We'll see if it works out in the long run.

[ShoogarBear]

4) "No bargaining position" -

Yeah Right. You want him, your gonna have to pay some. He can walk away anytime he wants, play in Europe and make BIGTIME money, living very comfortably. If you want him on the court, be prepared to stump up.

PS. Assuming he keeps his discout the same ~ 1.3 million US, and his buyout drops to 800K at the last year of his contract, effectively nothing.
Economic NBA Salary = [(1-1/3)^-1] * (2000000*1.3 + 0) = (3/2)*(2000000)
Economic NBA Salary = 3000000
NBA Salary = 3000000- Discount = 3000000-1300000 = 1700000.
He will likely come over for your proposal of $6 million for 3 years.

You ignore the fact that the Spurs have an equation to determine his worth, too. The most significant factor in their equation is the probability that Sola will turn out to be an impact player (top 7 on the roster) in the NBA. You guys seem to think that number is 0.9. In reality it is probably more like 0.5.

Proven player in Europe != proven player in the NBA.

[Kori Ellis]

The Spurs are clearly trying to lowball both players. We'll see if it works out in the long run.

You call it lowballing. But maybe the Spurs just don't believe that they are as good as some people think they are.

When his buyout comes down, he may come over for the money your offering, IF he is still willing to offer us a discount to play in the NBA, AND the Spurs haven't pissed him off enough shoving BS in his face for the last 3 years... Chance the FO is willing to take I guess.

Shoving what BS in his face?

His buyout was outrageous. Should the Spurs have paid him a max deal just so he could get to the NBA?

[pad300]

You ignore the fact that the Spurs have an equation to determine his worth, too. The most significant factor in their equation is the probability that Sola will turn out to be an impact player (top 7 on the roster) in the NBA. You guys seem to think that number is 0.9. In reality it is probably more like 0.5.

Proven player in Europe != proven player in the NBA.

Please review the post your are quoting - Neither the Spurs NOR Scola determine his market worth -

1) Market value is what some participant in the Market will pay for something.

2) While it used to be true that the Market for high priced basketball players was confined to the NBA, the Europeans have some money too. It spends as well as anybody else's.

THE MARKET IS NOT LIMITED TO THE SPURS OFFER. This is a fact! Deal with it!

[ArgSpursFan]

You call it lowballing. But maybe the Spurs just don't believe that they are as good as some people think they are.
Shoving what BS in his face?

His buyout was outrageous. Should the Spurs have paid him a max deal just so he could get to the NBA?

But ,they knew it when they drafted him+If he is not all that,why did they drafted him/them anyways?

[ChumpDumper]

THE MARKET IS NOT LIMITED TO THE SPURS OFFER. This is a fact! Deal with it!

Then he'll rot in Europe and we'll sign Marcus Fizer. Deal with it.

[Kori Ellis]

But ,they knew it when they drafted him+If he is not all that,why did they drafted him/them anyways?

When Scola got drafted, I believe that Scola, his agent and the Spurs thought that eventually he'd be able to negotiate a reasonable buyout with Tau.

As for why they drafted him, they drafted him because thought he was a good player. But every second round pick doesn't make it to the NBA. Drafting is an educated guess, sometimes you are right - sometimes you are wrong. I'm not saying that the Spurs don't think he's good at all. I'm saying that they obviously don't think he's good enough to get the money he wanted in past summers. If they did, he'd be here already.

Again this summer they will evaluate again. If they thinks he's good enough, they think getting another big man is a pressing need, and the amount of money they are willing to offer him is enough for him to pay his buyout, then he'll be here. If not, then he won't.

[timvp]

The problem with factoring the second contract in is that there is no chance in he gets a Manu level contract. He'd be 30 when the 1st 3 year contract expires. Manu was 25 when he hit became a restricted FA.

First of all, Manu was 27 going on 28 when he signed his deal. Second of all, Scola can have the third year at a player option. Then he'd be 29 and in his prime. Team's can only offer 5 year contracts nowadays, meaning they'd have him from 29 to 33.

You don't give 5 or 6 year contracts to anything short of superstars when their 30 (ie he has to match say Elton Brand... good luck on Scola). The second NBA contract will be for less than the MLE, if he even gets that.

If Scola plays even as well as Nocioni does, he gets paid. Bigmen in the NBA make a lot of money, even if they are older.

Meanwhile, If he bombs, he's stuck here for 3 years sitting on the end of the bench, and reducing his value in Europe all the while, as he is getting older. Not to mention the possibility of having an accident (hit by a car say), and never getting another contract.

Those are the risks all rookies take when entering the league. The Spurs aren't in the business of making sure everyone they sign is getting the most money possible.

When his buyout comes down, he may come over for the money your offering, IF he is still willing to offer us a discount to play in the NBA, AND the Spurs haven't pissed him off enough shoving BS in his face for the last 3 years... Chance the FO is willing to take I guess.

If Scola can't handle the business part of the game, he won't be able to handle the first time Pop rips into him. Survival of the fittest.

BTW as far Javtokas is concerned, there is very similar math. The Spurs are clearly trying to lowball both players. We'll see if it works out in the long run.

Similar math? Javtokas was a free agent. He wanted the Spurs to give him big money up front. The Spurs laughed and let him sign in Greece.

[pad300]

You call it lowballing. But maybe the Spurs just don't believe that they are as good as some people think they are.




Shoving what BS in his face?

His buyout was outrageous. Should the Spurs have paid him a max deal just so he could get to the NBA?

1) Lowballing - Offering significantly less money than other buyers...

2) "Shoving what BS in his face?" a) Lowballing him. b) the amount of crap that has been tossed around in the Media regarding whose fault it is that he's not here... In particular, there have been comments made to the Media, ie In Public, about his skills and abilities on the court to cover the FO's ass when negotiations were not successful the last 2 years.

[Kori Ellis]

1) Lowballing - Offering significantly less money than other buyers...

There aren't any other NBA buyers. If there were other NBA buyers and the Spurs offered him a low contract, then that would be lowballing. He's not on the open market.

[ShoogarBear]

Please review the post your are quoting - Neither the Spurs NOR Scola determine his market worth -

1) Market value is what some participant in the Market will pay for something.

2) While it used to be true that the Market for high priced basketball players was confined to the NBA, the Europeans have some money too. It spends as well as anybody else's.

THE MARKET IS NOT LIMITED TO THE SPURS OFFER. This is a fact! Deal with it!

Uh, in sports, market worth is dependent upon how a team, or a limited small number of teams, projects the present and future value of that player contributing to the team success, whether it be defined in wins or ticket sales or whatever value measurement the team uses.

The Spurs and every other NBA team don't give a fat damn how much some European team is paying him until they believe his abilities translate into impact on the NBA stage.

If you don't understand this concept, then it is no wonder that you are lost in this conversation.

[ArgSpursFan]

When Scola got drafted, I believe that Scola, his agent and the Spurs thought that eventually he'd be able to negotiate a reasonable buyout with Tau.

As for why they drafted him, they drafted him because thought he was a good player. But every second round pick doesn't make it to the NBA. Drafting is an educated guess, sometimes you are right - sometimes you are wrong. I'm not saying that the Spurs don't think he's good at all. I'm saying that they obviously don't think he's good enough to get the money he wanted in past summers. If they did, he'd be here already.

Again this summer they will evaluate again. If they thinks he's good enough, they think getting another big man is a pressing need, and the amount of money they are willing to offer him is enough for him to pay his buyout, then he'll be here. If not, then he won't.

I understand your point and that´s why i´ve been waiting for 3 years for Scola to come to the spurs.
but,this guy is getting better and better every year,is not that he was good 3 years ago and now he became a crapy player.
I really think that the main thing is that the spurs thought they wouldn´t had to spend 3.5 M p/year with Timmy at his best +Horry and another big guy on the roster.
But this season is showing that they were wrong,by being so conservative about Scola´s money expectations.

[pad300]

Then he'll rot in Europe and we'll sign Marcus Fizer. Deal with it.

Chump, I really don't much care. If I was running the Spurs, neither he nor Oberto would be here. I just really object to the stupidity of people around here, who don't understand math or economics, and expect Oberto to take whatever the Spurs offer him, for their perosonal entertainment. Why people insist that the world should be fair (or better) to them while everyone else should suck it up is completely beyond me. Why people think Scola has a moral obligation, rather than taking the money and running in Europe, I'm not sure...

[ShoogarBear]

The stupidity is with people who don't understand that this is not free-market economics, it's more akin to a risk-benefit analysis on both sides.

[ArgSpursFan]

Chump, I really don't much care. If I was running the Spurs, neither he nor Oberto would be here. I just really object to the stupidity of people around here, who don't understand math or economics, and expect Oberto to take whatever the Spurs offer him, for their perosonal entertainment. Why people insist that the world should be fair (or better) to them while everyone else should suck it up is completely beyond me. Why people think Scola has a moral obligation, rather than taking the money and running in Europe, I'm not sure...

Spurs signed Oberto cause he was cheaper tham Scola and has some BBIQ,but they never realized that for being so cheap they were getting Nothing,comparing of what Scola could´ve done for the spurs so far this season.

[pad300]

Similar math? Javtokas was a free agent. He wanted the Spurs to give him big money up front. The Spurs laughed and let him sign in Greece.

Yeah, the Math is similar,
Buyout ~ 0
European Salary ~ 1000000 Euro Annually (This is the number I recall hearing, if someone has a better number let me know)

Economic NBA Salary = [(1-1/3)^-1] * (1000000*1.3 + 0) = (3/2)*(1300000)
Economic NBA Salary ~ 1800000

The Spurs offered him the NBA minimum ~ 412000 in 06-07 for someone with zero years NBA experience. 412000 * 4 < 18000000. This is a big time lowball.

PS. By Similar math, I mean similar equation structure, not values...

[timvp]

Yeah, the Math is similar,
Buyout ~ 0
European Salary ~ 1000000 Euro Annually (This is the number I recall hearing, if someone has a better number let me know)

Economic NBA Salary = [(1-1/3)^-1] * (1000000*1.3 + 0) = (3/2)*(1300000)
Economic NBA Salary ~ 1800000

The Spurs offered him the NBA minimum ~ 412000 in 06-07 for someone with zero years NBA experience. 412000 * 4 < 18000000. This is a big time lowball.

PS. By Similar math, I mean similar equation structure, not values...

European teams were offering Manu more than the Spurs were offering. European teams were offering Spanoulis more money than the Rockets were offering. European teams were offering Arvydas Sabonis more than the Blazers were offering. European teams were offering Mehmet Okur more money than the Pistons were (2-year, $2M).

NBA teams don't compete with European teams. If they did, Manu, Spanoulis, Sabonis, Okur and others would have never joined the NBA.

[Kori Ellis]

Yeah, the Math is similar,
Buyout ~ 0
European Salary ~ 1000000 Euro Annually (This is the number I recall hearing, if someone has a better number let me know)

Economic NBA Salary = [(1-1/3)^-1] * (1000000*1.3 + 0) = (3/2)*(1300000)
Economic NBA Salary ~ 1800000

The Spurs offered him the NBA minimum ~ 412000 in 06-07 for someone with zero years NBA experience. 412000 * 4 < 18000000. This is a big time lowball.

PS. By Similar math, I mean similar equation structure, not values...

But the Spurs (and every other NBA team) aren't in the business of offer contracts to meet the player's market value in Europe. Javtokas (in the Spurs eyes) was worth a minimum contract in the NBA -- they don't care how much he makes or doesn't make in Europe.

[pad300]

The stupidity is with people who don't understand that this is not free-market economics, it's more akin to a risk-benefit analysis on both sides.

Yes it is...

Scola is free to accept offers from the Spurs, or any team not in the NBA. You cannot force him to come to the US and play for the Spurs.

The Spurs are free to offer Scola any salary they want. He cannot force them to offer him a salary larger than they are willing to pay.

Both sides are free to take whatever positions they want. The market is artificially limited by forcing other NBA teams out of it, but inside that limitation it is still a free market, NONE of participants are constrained beyond their own decisions...

Until the Spurs come up with an offer that is acceptable to Scola, he's not coming here. The Spurs may be willing to accept that. But anyone who thinks that the Spurs have Scola over a barrel and can force him to accept a contract he doesn't like is a ing moron.

The same applies to Javtokas. You cannot force they guy to accept your contract offer.

They may choose to come to the US for less money, on the hopes of a big contract later on. BUT you cannot force them into that decision. It's their life, they get to chose.

[timvp]

Maceo Baston is another strike against the theory that the Spurs have to outbid European teams for talent. Baston is 30 going on 31. Maccabi, where he'd been playing for years, offered him a long-term contract that would have made him one of the highest paid players in Europe.

Instead, he signed with the Pacers for the league minimum. Javtokas, in a similar situation, picked signing a one-year contract in Greece over a minimum contract. And Baston has a much better European resume than Javtokas has.

[Kori Ellis]

But anyone who thinks that the Spurs have Scola over a barrel and can force him to accept a contract he doesn't like is a ing moron.

Umm, no one has said that.

[timvp]

But anyone who thinks that the Spurs have Scola over a barrel and can force him to accept a contract he doesn't like is a ing moron.

Nobody is saying that.

The Spurs have a price that they think Scola is worth. If Scola doesn't deem that fair or if it's not enough to buyout his contract, it's his decision to stay in Europe. The Spurs can't do anything about that other than try to trade him, but then again, there are no teams out there lining up to pay Scola the money he wants.

[ChumpDumper]

Until the Spurs come up with an offer that is acceptable to Scola, he's not coming here. The Spurs may be willing to accept that. But anyone who thinks that the Spurs have Scola over a barrel and can force him to accept a contract he doesn't like is a ing moron.

As long as Scola wants to play in the NBA, they do have him over a barrel.

[ArgSpursFan]

May be the NBA needs somebody like scola who stands by his position/expectations and wait until the money HE WANTS is on the table.
Sometimes you end up spending more money and loosing alot more,when you are cheap in this life.

[ShoogarBear]

Yes it is...

Scola is free to accept offers from the Spurs, or any team not in the NBA. You cannot force him to come to the US and play for the Spurs.

The Spurs are free to offer Scola any salary they want. He cannot force them to offer him a salary larger than they are willing to pay.

Both sides are free to take whatever positions they want. The market is artificially limited by forcing other NBA teams out of it, but inside that limitation it is still a free market, NONE of participants are constrained beyond their own decisions...

Until the Spurs come up with an offer that is acceptable to Scola, he's not coming here. The Spurs may be willing to accept that. But anyone who thinks that the Spurs have Scola over a barrel and can force him to accept a contract he doesn't like is a ing moron.

The same applies to Javtokas. You cannot force they guy to accept your contract offer.

They may choose to come to the US for less money, on the hopes of a big contract later on. BUT you cannot force them into that decision. It's their life, they get to chose.

Just because you have a choice between A or B doesn't make it free-market economics.

He can choose to play in the US, or he can choose to not play in the US. Those are his total range of options as far as the Spurs care. They don't give a damn if he's making $1 billion or $1 in Europe, if there's a probability he's going to wind up being another Oberto, that's the overriding factor into what they are willing to offer him.

It's a straightforward risk-benefit analysis, with the boundary contraints for the Spurs being:
-he won't sign at all
-he won't sign, they'll trade his rights and end up not getting value for him
-they'll sign him to a contract that way exceeds his NBA worth and be stuck with him

If not formally, I guarantee that the Spurs are at least informally placing weighting factors on all of these risks, with the primary factor being the third risk.

This is like have a discussion with a freshman who's just taken his first psychology course and now is trying to analyze everybody. What, did you just finish Economics 101 and are now trying to apply it to everything you see?