Rita and Corpus Christi

[MannyIsGod]

As it stands, the storm would have to make a big shift to the south for us to get really bad things here.

We still have about a 30% chance of sustained TS force winds.

[MannyIsGod]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.

Please.

[travis2]

Travis, look at upper air plots. The 500mb ones are the best because they show the steering currents.

It is coming in a bit further south and west. Not much, but if the next couple of runs do what this one did, Corpus will be much more under the gun.

Cool, they're up now...they weren't when I made that post...

[sa_butta]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.

Believe it, besides there are people from N.O. here now. But if something of Katrinas proportion happened you can bet there would be some idiots out there.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.

Galveston is being played up due to the 1900 hurricane and reference to Katrina.

Plus, as well all know by now the northest quadrant is the worst part of it, which even with a shift south would still put Galveston/Htown square in its sights.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, it looks to be at about the same exat landfall point. This time it has it making a sharper turn though.

Instead of a slower degredation of the high, it makes it a later but quicker degridation.

If anything, that High has proven stronger than anticipated. I just keep seeing a more southerly component to this thing, but maybe not.

[Shelly]

Well, I think we're gonna get the bare essentials, just in case. You never know and better to be safe than sorry

[travis2]

Actually, it looks to be at about the same exat landfall point. This time it has it making a sharper turn though.

Instead of a slower degredation of the high, it makes it a later but quicker degridation.

If anything, that High has proven stronger than anticipated. I just keep seeing a more southerly component to this thing, but maybe not.

Agree...the NAM seems to not want to let go of that ridge...the GFS can't seem NOT to let go of that ridge...

[MannyIsGod]

000
Urnt12 Knhc 211600z
Vortex Data Message
A. 21/1517z
B. 24 Deg 11 Min N
85 Deg 42 Min W
C. 700 Mb 2522 M
D. 65 Kt
E. 070 Deg 27 Nm
F. 180 Deg 137 Kt
G. 075 Deg 09 Nm
H. 934 Mb
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ Na
L. Closed Wall
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 Nm
P. Noaa3 Wx18a Rita Ob 07
Max Fl Wind 137 Kt E Quad 1516z

[MannyIsGod]

934 is the new pressure!!! holy !!!

[Cant_Be_Faded]

What does that mean

[travis2]

crap...

137KTS = 158 MPH

Now, that's at flight level...I wonder what the surface winds are going to come in at...

[travis2]

What does that mean

The previous pressure was 944MB. This thing is dropping pretty fast...

[MannyIsGod]

137 flight level winds corosponds to about 140mph

So the last estimate was right on.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, surface is usually .9 of flight level.

But with the pressure drop, you can expect those winds to wind up faster.

[ObiwanGinobili]

Well, I think we're gonna get the bare essentials, just in case. You never know and better to be safe than sorry

exactly!
good idea......btw- water and batteries are allready out of stock in Cuero and Victoria (althouhg wal mart said they'd have water today at 2)... so I'm sure they'll be a run on that stuff here as well.
Probebly tomarrow. so you;d be the smart one to get it today.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

The previous pressure was 944MB. This thing is dropping pretty fast...

And what does that mean? Is lower pressure bad or good..

[j-6]

What was Katrina's lowest...905?

[MannyIsGod]

Katrina's lowest was 902. I doubt we'll see that, but Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. She'll undergo an eye wall replacement sometime soon, then once completed she might make the jump if she's still over the loop current.

[travis2]

And what does that mean? Is lower pressure bad or good..

Bad. It's getting stronger. And 10MB in 3 hrs is a pretty healthy jump.

[travis2]

Travis, surface is usually .9 of flight level.

But with the pressure drop, you can expect those winds to wind up faster.

cool...didn't know that...

[gay abc]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.

i was thinking the same thing s y - what should we stock up on?

water
candles
batteries
flashlights
oil for oil lamps

what else?


i do have a gas stove/oven for cooking

[easjer]

Welp, they've closed Univ. of Houston and are evac'ing the dorms. .

I know some folks are panicking because of Katrina. But I don't know what to do. We're worried about looters. We're worried about not getting out. We're worried about being stuck on the highway for hours. We're worried about running out of gas.

. . .

BTW, they are evac'ing the greater Houston area north to Dallas, but lots of folks will head to SA (like us) because we know people there. It's not an official evacuation location of this area (don't know about Corpus).

[Cant_Be_Faded]

jesus christ

[MannyIsGod]

This season is ridiculous. Flat out ridiculous.