Mahinmi and Scola to meet

[ChumpDumper]

May be the NBA needs somebody like scola who stands by his position/expectations and wait until the money HE WANTS is on the table.

They already did.

His name was Maciej Lampe.

Sometimes you end up spending more money and loosing alot more,when you are cheap in this life.

Cry me a river. The last person I'm going to have sympathy for is a guy who is holding out for $10 million to play a child's game.

[pad300]

Just because you have a choice between A or B doesn't make it free-market economics.

He can choose to play in the US, or he can choose to not play in the US. Those are his total range of options as far as the Spurs care. They don't give a damn if he's making $1 billion or $1 in Europe, if there's a probability he's going to wind up being another Oberto, that's the overriding factor into what they are willing to offer him.

It's a straightforward risk-benefit analysis, with the boundary contraints for the Spurs being:
-he won't sign at all
-he won't sign, they'll trade his rights and end up not getting value for him
-they'll sign him to a contract that way exceeds his NBA worth and be stuck with him

If not formally, I guarantee that the Spurs are at least informally placing weighting factors on all of these risks, with the primary factor being the third risk.

This is like have a discussion with a freshman who's just taken his first psychology course and now is trying to analyze everybody. What, did you just finish Economics 101 and are now trying to apply it to everything you see?

Just because the choices involved have relatively few options, doesn't make it a non-free market. If I want a Big Mac, I can either buy one from Macdonalds or not buy one. Gee - what a simple choice. A binary solution set. Is the US not a free-market economy?

If the Spurs want a PF, they have lots of choices... Including signing Scola. Scola has lots of choices about which team he plays for, including the Spurs (but not other NBA teams). Both side are weighing their risks, and assessing the potential benefits.

Similarly, if you've ever been offered a job more complicated than flipping burgers, you had the same choices that Scola does - accept the contract or find a different job (assuming your in a free labor market, like the US, and most of Europe). If it was the only fast food restaurant in town, well then, you aren't getting a job flipping burgers... The person who offered you the job took the same decision the Spurs are taking- either you would accept or not accept the contract.

It's a straightforward risk-benefit analysis, with the boundary contraints for your potential employer being:
-you won't sign with with him
-you will sign to a contract that way exceeds your business worth and be stuck with you
-You sign with him and are extremely beneficial to his business

[ShoogarBear]

Just because the choices involved have relatively few options, doesn't make it a non-free market. If I want a Big Mac, I can either buy one from Macdonalds or not buy one. Gee - what a simple choice. A binary solution set. Is the US not a free-market economy?

Hoisted by your own pe .

If I want a hamburger I can buy one from McDonald's or Burger King or Wendy's or Whataburger or Chris Madrid's or Sonic or the local mom-and-pop grill. That's a free market economy.

If I specifically have to have a Big Mac, I can go to McDonald's or McDonald's or McDonald's. No other store can sell Big Macs by law. That's not a free market.

If Scola wants to play NBA basketball he can sign with the Spurs. Or the Spurs. Or the Spurs. That is not a free market economy.

McDonald's and Burger King and Wendy's and Whataburger and Chris Madrid's and Sonic are all in compe ion with each other.

The Spurs are not in compe ion with Euroleague teams. How Euroleague teams do has no bearing on how they do. For that matter they are also not in compe ion with ABA or WNBA teams either, so Scola is free to come over and negotiate with them if he wishes and the Spurs won't give a damn. The only thing that affects the Spurs is if Scola plays for another NBA team, and they have complete and total control over whether that happens.

If the Spurs want a PF, they have lots of choices... Including signing Scola. Scola has lots of choices about which team he plays for, including the Spurs (but not other NBA teams).

That's the entire point. If you don't understand that the Spurs are not in compe ion with Euroleague teams and that the NBA is not a free-market economy, then you have no business discussing economics.

[nkdlunch]

If I specifically have to have a Big Mac, I can go to McDonald's or McDonald's or McDonald's. No other store can sell Big Macs by law. That's not a free market.

they don't have Wendy's in Spain

[ChumpDumper]

They don't have the NBA in Spain either.

[pad300]

Hoisted by your own pe .

If I want a hamburger I can buy one from McDonald's or Burger King or Wendy's or Whataburger or Chris Madrid's or Sonic or the local mom-and-pop grill. That's a free market economy.

If I specifically have to have a Big Mac, I can go to McDonald's or McDonald's or McDonald's. No other store can sell Big Macs by law. That's not a free market.

If Scola wants to play NBA basketball he can sign with the Spurs. Or the Spurs. Or the Spurs. That is not a free market economy.

McDonald's and Burger King and Wendy's and Whataburger and Chris Madrid's and Sonic are all in compe ion with each other.

The Spurs are not in compe ion with Euroleague teams. How Euroleague teams do has no bearing on how they do. For that matter they are also not in compe ion with ABA or WNBA teams either, so Scola is free to come over and negotiate with them if he wishes and the Spurs won't give a damn. The only thing that affects the Spurs is if Scola plays for another NBA team, and they have complete and total control over whether that happens.

That's the entire point. If you don't understand that the Spurs are not in compe ion with Euroleague teams and that the NBA is not a free-market economy, then you have no business discussing economics.

I'm Clueless? THE BUYER IN THIS TRANSACTION IS THE SPURS!!! THEY ARE PAYING HIM NOT HE'S PAYING THEM YOU LOW RENT WASTE OF OXYGEN MORON! SCOLA IS A UNIQUE PLAYER (as in individual, not special, or special education, like you) - HE'S THE MACDONALDS IN THE ANALOGY. HE IS SELLING HIS PLAY AS THE BIG MAC. NO OTHER PERSON CAN SELL HIS PLAY WITHOUT HIS PERMISSION. THE SPURS ARE THE GUYS GETTING HUNGRY AND ASKING THEMSELVES DO I WANT A BIG MAC OR NOT OR MAYBE SOMETHING ELSE?

The Spurs aren't in compe ion (in this case) with Euroleague teams? Who else is going to sign Scola's services? Have the Spurs decided to abandon signing Scola? If not, they are competing with Euroleague teams for his signature.

WHY DO YOU NOT GET THIS - SCOLA HAS OTHER OPTIONS THAN SIGNING WITH THE SPURS. IF THEY WANT HIM TO PLAY FOR THEM, THEY HAVE TO MAKE AN OFFER HE WILL ACCEPT.

JESUS H. CHRIST AT LEAST I UNDERSTAND THE DIFFENRENCE BETWEEN WHO'S SELLING AND WHO'S BUYING.

[ChumpDumper]

Fizer would play for a Big Mac.

[timvp]

WHY DO YOU NOT GET THIS - SCOLA HAS OTHER OPTIONS THAN SIGNING WITH THE SPURS. IF THEY WANT HIM TO PLAY FOR THEM, THEY HAVE TO MAKE AN OFFER HE WILL ACCEPT.

Again . . .

European teams were offering Manu more than the Spurs were offering. European teams were offering Spanoulis more money than the Rockets were offering. European teams were offering Arvydas Sabonis more than the Blazers were offering. European teams were offering Mehmet Okur more money than the Pistons were (2-year, $2M).

NBA teams don't compete with European teams. If they did, Manu, Spanoulis, Sabonis, Okur and others would have never joined the NBA.

[Bruno]

Fizer would play for a Big Mac.

Taj Gray too. He is averaging 15/6 in the french league. The level is weaker than in Spain but it's still quite impressive for a young player who discovers the europe.

[ShoogarBear]

Yeah, Scola is the McDonald's. You're really losing it.

How many hits does TauCeramicaTalk.com or LuisScola.net get again?

What's more likely, the Spurs fortunes are improved by Scola coming over, or Scola's fortunes are improved by Scola coming over?

If Scola never comes over, there are 20-30 other players the Spurs could try to get and never have to think about him again. If Scola never comes over here, all he'll ever be remembered as is the guy who played with Manu and Nocioni.

[VaSpursFan]

if scola wants to ever make it to the NBA, he has to negotiate with the Spurs. Otherwise, he stays in Europe. This is quite simple. the spurs hold all the cards when it comes to Scola's NBA career unless they trade his rights. The have ALL the leverage in these negotiations. Scola really has no bargaining power.

[AFBlue]

I'd take a couple of those players as one-year stop gaps if the bigs this year suck in the playoffs and Butler and Mahinmi show no promise. Of course, like I've said all along, if Scola would come for his market value, I'd place him high on the list.

But also remember, the Spurs only have the MLE to spend and bigman isn't the only concern on this team. The Spurs need a backup point guard and help on the wing. You can't just limit it to bigmen.

The Spurs also have three or four draft picks, and though some of those may not yield immediate contributors, I'm sure the Spurs can find someone to fill at least one of their gaping holes with these picks.

I do see your point though, there is much to worry about in the off-season and only so much to utilize in fixing those problems. It's why I'm such a big advocate of fixing at least one of the situations, via trade, before 22 Feb. If the Spurs grab a guy like Carlos Arroyo, who is signed through next season, the could net a decent backup pg for the rest of this year and not have to worry about using valuable cap-space and/or draft picks addressing an immediate need at PG.

Bottom line: You're not wrong, the Spurs could go into next season with Oberto and Elson again and not be worse off....AS LONG AS THEY USE THE CAP MONEY SAVED NOT BRINGING SCOLA OVER TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ACQUISITIONS!

[pad300]

Again . . .

European teams were offering Manu more than the Spurs were offering. European teams were offering Spanoulis more money than the Rockets were offering. European teams were offering Arvydas Sabonis more than the Blazers were offering. European teams were offering Mehmet Okur more money than the Pistons were (2-year, $2M).

NBA teams don't compete with European teams. If they did, Manu, Spanoulis, Sabonis, Okur and others would have never joined the NBA.

Sure they're competing - they are offering the chance for a NBA big contract down the road. They are offering the prestige of playing in the "best" league in the world. They are offering a chance to emigrate to the US. These are all inducements for players to sign here. They are also very difficult to asses in terms of Dollar value, but they have value. The player gets to decide how much he values these things. In Scola's case in particular, his chance of a big NBA contract down the road is much lower than Okur, or Spanoulis, or Manu.

Sabonis have a hope of a big NBA contract(similarly to Scola) - he came over at 30 (1995). Accoding to Patricia's NBA salaries, he was payed 2.2 million. Portlands total salaries that year was 23.9 million - slightly over the 23 million dollar cap. He came over for a contract that was ~ 10% of the total salary bill. Given the financial state of Euro basketball at the time, that was at least equivalent money to what he would get in Europe (I would guess significantly more...Which is why he came over).
The same percentage for Scola would be roughly 6.5 million per year... But Scola is much less of a player than Sabonis.
Still, the reason Sabonis came is because it made financial sense to HIM. The young guys are hoping/gambling/wanting a big follow on contract. For Scola, it's a lousy gamble, because he's too old to get that big follow on contract. He's not too stupid to figure that out, nor is his agent. If the Spurs want him, they're not going to get a gigantic discount (greater than say 30%) over what Euroleague will pay him. Similarly for Javtokas - he's 27 this year. If he had taken a 2 year vet min contract with the Spurs, he'd be an FA at 29. He's not going to get that huge follow on contract... Therefore, it's lousy business sense to discount your services by 75% or so.
Either of them might decide he wants to play in the NBA enough to come really cheap, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[ChumpDumper]

For Scola, it's a lousy gamble, because he's too old to get that big follow on contract. He's not too stupid to figure that out, nor is his agent.

Then he'll never come over. End of thread.

[timvp]

Since when do NBA proven 29-year-old bigmen not get big bucks on the open market? A 30-year-old Jerome James last year signed a 5-year, $30M contract. And to get that, James just had a handful of good games. Eric Dampier got his gigantic $60M contract when he was 30.

Bigmen usually reach their prime in their earlier 30's. If Scola or Javtokas came to the NBA and played well, they'd get paid beyond their wildest European dreams.

[ChumpDumper]

Quick question.

What is the highest salary in Europe this season?

[timvp]

Quick question.

What is the highest salary in Europe this season?

Theodoros Papaloukas is the highest paid European player.

He signed a 3-year, $7M deal.

Huuuge compe ion.

[timvp]

The second highest paid player in Europe is Arvydas Macijauskas. The same guy who was the laughing stock of the NBA last year.

[ChumpDumper]

And has any second rounder ever been signed to more than a three year, $2.7 million deal?

[pad300]

What's more likely, the Spurs fortunes are improved by Scola coming over, or Scola's fortunes are improved by Scola coming over?

If Scola never comes over, there are 20-30 other players the Spurs could try to get and never have to think about him again. If Scola never comes over here, all he'll ever be remembered as is the guy who played with Manu and Nocioni.

Are Scola's fortunes going to be improved by Scola coming over? I'd say unlikely unless he gets something on the level of the contract he's asking for (3.5 million for 3 years)
Assumptions - 5% effective interest on ac ulated value. Exchange rate remains 1.3 Dollars/Euro. Effective US tax rate 1/3. Scola plays till 34. In Europe, he gets a 7 year, 14 million euro contract(euro contracts are post taxes). In the NBA he has 2 career paths - he comes over for $6 million/ 3 years (TIMVP's suggestion) or he comes over for 10.5 million/3 years (Scola's camp). Afterwards he gets a 4 year, 18 million dollar contract from someone (my guess at a realistic follow up contract - roughly 1/2 the MLE by then).

ulative Time value of Money
Year Europe TIMVP Plan Scola Plan
2008 2600000 1333333.333 2333333.333
2009 5330000 2733333.333 4783333.333
2010 8196500 4203333.333 7355833.333
2011 11206325 7413500 10723625
2012 14366641.25 10784175 14259806.25
2013 17684973.31 14323383.75 17972796.56
2014 21169221.98 18039552.94 21871436.39

For the TIMVP plan to make sense, he has to get a follow on contract of $23 million over 4 years.

As far as Fame goes, already really famous in Argentina and Europe. But he's never going to be a big name in the US.

Addtionally, assuming he came over for this year with a 3.5 million buyout (effectively losing 1 million per year for the 1st 3 years). He still plays to 34, and gets a 5 year contract for 26.25 million after his 1st NBA contract. He is assumed to make 2 million euros this yearin europe.
ulative Time value of Money
Year Europe TIMVP Plan Scola Plan
2014 24827683.08 20680868.58 24704346.21

for it to pay off on the TIMVP plan, the five year contract must be for more than $31.25 million. He'd have to be awesome to get that kind of money at that age...

[timvp]

He'd have to be as good as Jerome James or half as good as Eric Dampier.

[picnroll]

How much is Manu making relative to what he'd make in Europe. If Scola believes in himself come over and prove he can play and he'll get paid just like Manu did. If he doesn't believe in himself stay in Europe for the safe money.

[Kori Ellis]

For the TIMVP plan to make sense, he has to get a follow on contract of $23 million over 4 years.

So you don't think he's good enough to earn that kind of contract?

That's peanuts for a big man.

[ShoogarBear]

He'd have to be as good as Jerome James or half as good as Eric Dampier.

He'd have to be 75% as good as Rasho.

[ChumpDumper]

So you have to ask yourself--

Is Scola as good as Matt Harpring?