Rita and Corpus Christi

[travis2]

Katrina's lowest was 902. I doubt we'll see that, but Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. She'll undergo an eye wall replacement sometime soon, then once completed she might make the jump if she's still over the loop current.

Have you looked at the SST lately?

Over the past 12 hours or so, it looks like the water is warming in Rita's path...coming up from the Bay of Campeche into the main Gulf proper...

I think the Gulf images are the 30°C contour...

http://coas ch.noaa.gov/interface...ager&offset=32

[1369]

Welp, they've closed Univ. of Houston and are evac'ing the dorms. .

I know some folks are panicking because of Katrina. But I don't know what to do. We're worried about looters. We're worried about not getting out. We're worried about being stuck on the highway for hours. We're worried about running out of gas.

. . .

BTW, they are evac'ing the greater Houston area north to Dallas, but lots of folks will head to SA (like us) because we know people there. It's not an official evacuation location of this area (don't know about Corpus).

Corpus hasn't ordered anything yet, but they just came over the radio and said school will be closed starting tomorrow for Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, Ingleside and others in the area.

If you're worried easjer, then you should leave as soon as possible.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis.

Go here and look at the TCHP loop. The total heat content of the western gulf has risen over the past few days. ing scary.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[MannyIsGod]

Here, I'll just post it. See how its going up????

[travis2]

That's just through Monday. Based on what I saw, it's still going up...

[MannyIsGod]

RITA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY WITHIN HOURS
SEVERE THREAT TO COASTAL TEXAS FROM NEAR PORT O'CONNOR
NORTHWARD TO PORT ARTHUR -- LANDFALL IN 70 HOURS

A RECON just arrived - and found a central pressure of 934MB, with a MAX sustained Flight level wind
of 137kts in the east quadrant, implying a surface sustained wind of 135mph. Satellite estimates now indicate
RITA may in fact have reached CAT 5 Intensity -- although this cannot be confirmed until the Aircraft completes
a full sampling of the winds around the entire storm. The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up
to 10°C - indicate of a strong CAT 4 / borderline CAT 5 hurricane. The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near
24.1N/ 85.80W or 700NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12
hours ago..

Though the storm may or may not have actually attained CAT intensity --based on the current imagery derived
data - and that fact RITA will be spending the next 12-18 hours crossing the Loop Current -- there is no longer
much doubt the storm will become a CAT 5 Hurricane. From that point on -- Rita will likely fluctuate in
intensity as eye wall replacement cycles commence -- but also -- by Thursday, the storm will be moving over
slightly cooler waters -- and the SST analysis shows a serious of 'warm' and 'cool' water pools of water scattered
about the Gulf. Passage over a slightly cooler area of water would no doubt cause some weakening, while the
converse would be true if is moves across a warmer pool of water. However, with the storm moving at a solid
10-12Kts -- and no significant slowdown expected -- the change in intensity may not be as pronounced as
typical -- since the storm is 'on the move' and will continually be moving over still relatively warm surface waters.

The major area of shallow warm water is within 100NM of the Texas coast. This combined with some slight
increase in shear expected during the final 12 hours before landfall -- should drop the WIND INTENSITY down
by 1 full Category. HOWEVER, as we learned from Katrina -- Wind Intensity, used for Categorizing a Hurricane,
doesn't always tell the whole story. Assuming RITA does attain CAT 5 intensity, and stays at that strength,
or close to it -- it will develop a huge CATEGORY 5 storm surge that will strike the Texas coast - regardless of
any wind speed decrease during the final 12 hours before landfall. Officially, Katrina hit the MS Coast as
a strong CAT 3 - but produced a catastrophic Category 5 storm surge damage for a 120 mile stretch of coast
line to the east. Rita may strike with the same CAT 5 storm surge -- but I believe it will cover a somewhat smaller extent
of coastline -- about 50NM - compared to Katrina's 120 mile wide path of utter devastation. But keep in mind
even if the storm does come ashore near Freeport -- the storm surge in Galveston Bay will be severe.

The latest 12Z model runs are clustered very tightly on a landfall between Port O'Conner and Freeport Saturday
morning & the consensus for intensity estimates are for a strong CAT 4. Those living in the coastal area from near
Corpus Christi to Galveston should begin evacuation within the next 24 hours. Those living north of Galveston
to Lake Charles, LA, and from Corpus Christi to Brownsville -- should have a 'Plan' in place in the event the storm
veers off the expected track.

[Ishta]

OH ...this is REALLY REALLY not good

[travis2]

(a little gallows humor)

I just figured it all out! God is REALLY REALLY PISSED at New Orleans.

We need to tell the evacuees to GO HOME...

*rimshot*

[Cant_Be_Faded]

So the gulf temperature is going up, because of something else, not cuz of the hurricane?

[travis2]

So the gulf temperature is going up, because of something else, not cuz of the hurricane?

It would appear so, yes. Actually, the hurricane would cool the water because of pulling cooler water up to the surface (not to mention cloud cover reducing radiative heating).

[ObiwanGinobili]

(a little gallows humor)

I just figured it all out! God is REALLY REALLY PISSED at New Orleans.

We need to tell the evacuees to GO HOME...

*rimshot*

my mom told me that one last night..... and I *almost* posted it like 2x's.
but evetually decided to stay out of the firing range....
but i feel free to now that you;ve gone and done it!

[Cant_Be_Faded]

It would appear so, yes. Actually, the hurricane would cool the water because of pulling cooler water up to the surface (not to mention cloud cover reducing radiative heating).

So now it'll increase even faster...I'm telling you they're controlling the weather....

[CharlieMac]

Jesus Christ. the magnitude of this storm is starting to set in for me. Good luck to you peeps on the coast.

[MannyIsGod]

It is like someone set the clock back a month and we're all reliving Katrina. What the man.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Travis.

Go here and look at the TCHP loop. The total heat content of the western gulf has risen over the past few days. ing scary.

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk.

[MannyIsGod]

I can't believe that after telling people there would not be another Katrina, here we are staring down the barrel of another cat 5. , I'm going to start expecting the worst.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

These must be the end times. if california starts to get catastrophic earthquakes within the next few months, we're screwed

[CharlieMac]

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk.

I like to observe these threads and throw in a quick prediction. I know of a lot of the links posted but a few are completely new to me. I was extremely close to heading to A&M when I graduated HS. I chose to go up north and bang midwestern girls instead. What a huge mistake.

I was going through my moms photo album a few weeks ago, and she has pics of me standing front of the tv while the weather was on motioning the same way the weatherman was. What a nerd.

I called Brownsville at a Cat 4. I was way off.

[CharlieMac]

I can't believe that after telling people there would not be another Katrina, here we are staring down the barrel of another cat 5. , I'm going to start expecting the worst.

The though of a Cat 5 popping Corpus in the mouth is pretty scary. Then there are the tornados....

[travis2]

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk.

Hey...to be a true gEEk, you have to be an EE...

[CharlieMac]

Mike on KSAT is right. What's amazing is that a little over 24 hours ago Rita wasn't even a hurricane yet.

[travis2]

my mom told me that one last night..... and I *almost* posted it like 2x's.
but evetually decided to stay out of the firing range....
but i feel free to now that you;ve gone and done it!

Your mom and I think alike, eh? Great minds...

[Shelly]

My husband was just at Home Depot buying batteries and some other stuff. He said some people were buying plywood.

[Shelly]

Hurricane Local Statement National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 1215 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...rita A Category 4 Hurricane With Winds Near 140 Mph... ...coastal Flood Watch In Effect For The Upper Texas Coast...

...this Statement Applies To The Residents Of...galveston... Jackson...matagorda...fort Bend...wharton...harris...brazoria... Liberty And Chambers Counties...

...watches/warnings In Effect... A Coastal Flood Watch Has Been Issued For The Upper Texas Coast For Thursday Night.

...current Storm Information...

.location... At 10 Am Cdt...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near La ude 24.3 North...longitude 85.9 West...or About 675 Miles Southeast Of Freeport Texas.

.movement... Hurricane Rita Was Moving West At 13 Mph. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

.intensity... Maximum Sustained Winds Were Estimated At 140 Mph With Higher Gusts. Rita Is A Dangerous Category 4 And Could Become A Category 5 Hurricane While Over The Central Gulf Later Today Or Tonight.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...

.evacuation Information... For Jackson County... Mandatory Evacuation Has Been Declared For The Entire County.

For Matagorda County... Mandatory Evacuation For The Southern Two Thirds Of The County Will Be In Effect At 6 Pm.

For Galveston And Brazoria Counties...voluntary Evacuation Is In Progress. Mandatory Evacuation Of Nursing Homes And Assisted-living Facilities Is Underway. On Galveston Island... Buses Will Be Available At The Island Community Center On Broadway After 10 Am For Persons With No Other Means Of Transportation. If There Is No Significant Change Of Rita's Track In The Next 24 Hours...a Mandatory Evacuation Of Galveston And Brazoria Counties Is Expected To Begin At 6 Pm Today.

Voluntary Evacuations Are Also In Progress This Evening For Low Lying Areas Of Chambers County... Harris County... And The Cities Of Houston...seabrook And Baytown

Decisions Concerning Evacuations For Other Counties And Communities Will Be Made Later Today.

.school...government...and Hospital Facility Closings... Most Independent School Districts In Galveston...brazoria...and Southern Harris Counties Will Be Closed. In Addition...all Schools In The San Jacinto College District And Brazosport College Will Be Closed. Galveston County Government Facilities Will Also Be Closed Today. The Jamaica Beach Office Of Emergency Management Will Be Closed.

University Of Texas Medical Branch (utmb) In Galveston Will Be Closed. No Medical Care Will Be Available At Utmb Hospital From This Point Forward.

.storm Surge And Tides... Tide Levels Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Upper Texas Coast. Tide Levels Are Expected To Gradually Begin Rising On Thursday As Swells Associated With Hurricane Rita Begin Propagating Across The Coastal Waters. This Potential Water Level Rise Coupled With The High Tide Cycle Beginning Thursday Evening And Persisting During The Overnight Hours Into Early Friday Morning Will Likely Result In Minor Coastal Flooding Across The Lowest Areas Along The Coast And Adjacent To The Bays. More Significant Coastal Flooding Is Expected To Occur At The Subsequent High Tide Cycle Which Will Begin Friday Evening And Continue Into Saturday Morning.

The Following Are The High Tide Times For Thursday Evening And Early Friday Morning...as Well As The Predicted Water Levels.

Location High Tide Time Expected Water Level Relative To Mean Lower Low Water

Pleasure Pier 937 Pm Cdt Thu 4.5 Feet

Port Bolivar 1123 Pm Cdt Thu 3.7 Feet

Galveston Channel 1109 Pm Cdt Thu 3.7 Feet

San Luis Pass 1100 Pm Cdt Thu 3.5 Feet

Jamaica Beach 147 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Morgans Point 930 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Eagle Point 303 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Freeport 949 Pm Cdt Fri 4.2 Feet

Port Oconnor 451 Am Cdt Fri 3.3 Feet

Clear Lake 514 Am Cdt Fri 3.1 Feet

.wind Impacts... Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Not Expected To Reach The Upper Texas Coast Until Friday Afternoon.

.rainfall... No Significant Rainfall Is Expected Along The Upper Texas Coast Through Thursday.

[Shelly]

Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO... ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDE RICKSBURG... BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS... BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY... PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES... CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS 1207 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...EFFECTS FROM DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

AT 10 AM CDT...MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH. RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39 TO 73 MPH) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HURRICANE FORCE (74 MPH AND GREATER) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOSEST TO THE COAST. SOME LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO SECURE LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. TREE TRIMMING MAY ALSO BE IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF LIMB DAMAGE TO HOMES AND AUTOMOBILES. INLAND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IF THE BANDS OF RAINFALL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

PEOPLE RESIDING IN OR TRAVELING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE RITA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.