Mahinmi and Scola to meet

[timvp]

So you have to ask yourself--

Is Scola as good as Matt Harpring?

Harpring got a 4-year, $25M deal this summer at the age of 30. And that was after microfracture surgery and a couple other major injuries.

Scola would be a young 30 because playing in Europe is easier than playing in the NBA. If he is anything decent (10 points, 5 rebounds), he's going to bank whenever he becomes an NBA free agent.

[pad300]

So you don't think he's good enough to earn that kind of contract?

That's peanuts for a big man.

For a 30 year old who's been playing 3 years in the NBA as 4th option (at best, behind Tim, Tony, Manu) in the Spurs system, (assuming we get nobody over the next 3 years who might displace him for scoring opportunities eg. a 3 who can score). He's not going to put up staggering numbers. He won't have any magical "upside". He's never been a dominant rebounder,nor a dominant defender. He's a post scorer when most of the opportunities are going to go to Duncan. I'd say it's a pretty big gamble for him. He'd be useful for the spurs right now, because our bigs beside TD suck donkey nuts. He'd be a great post option when TD is sitting - but that makes him a backup, which is even worse for his big contract prospects...

I think he's a pretty good player. I think he'd be worth the 3.5 million/year. But, I can't see him getting more than 5 million a year for for 5 years or 6 million for 4years.

PS. TIMVP - James and Dampier are C's. C's get overpaid. Scola's a smallish power forward. Smallish power forwards rarely get overpaid. Seriously, name a boderline undersized PF who got overpaid at 30... The closest I come is Marshall for the Cavs. But he has/had a good 3 pt shot(.403 3Pt%), was a good rebounder, and had a career year starting for Toronto (39 mpg, 16.2 ppg) the previous year. It also helped he's a) not undersize, and b) the Cav's were desperate for 3 point shooters. He got less than the MLE. Judging by the results, they still overpaid (only mildly though).

[VaSpursFan]

Are Scola's fortunes going to be improved by Scola coming over? I'd say unlikely unless he gets something on the level of the contract he's asking for (3.5 million for 3 years)
Assumptions - 5% effective interest on ac ulated value. Exchange rate remains 1.3 Dollars/Euro. Effective US tax rate 1/3. Scola plays till 34. In Europe, he gets a 7 year, 14 million euro contract(euro contracts are post taxes). In the NBA he has 2 career paths - he comes over for $6 million/ 3 years (TIMVP's suggestion) or he comes over for 10.5 million/3 years (Scola's camp). Afterwards he gets a 4 year, 18 million dollar contract from someone (my guess at a realistic follow up contract - roughly 1/2 the MLE by then).

ulative Time value of Money
Year Europe TIMVP Plan Scola Plan
2008 2600000 1333333.333 2333333.333
2009 5330000 2733333.333 4783333.333
2010 8196500 4203333.333 7355833.333
2011 11206325 7413500 10723625
2012 14366641.25 10784175 14259806.25
2013 17684973.31 14323383.75 17972796.56
2014 21169221.98 18039552.94 21871436.39

For the TIMVP plan to make sense, he has to get a follow on contract of $23 million over 4 years.

As far as Fame goes, already really famous in Argentina and Europe. But he's never going to be a big name in the US.

Addtionally, assuming he came over for this year with a 3.5 million buyout (effectively losing 1 million per year for the 1st 3 years). He still plays to 34, and gets a 5 year contract for 26.25 million after his 1st NBA contract. He is assumed to make 2 million euros this yearin europe.
ulative Time value of Money
Year Europe TIMVP Plan Scola Plan
2014 24827683.08 20680868.58 24704346.21

for it to pay off on the TIMVP plan, the five year contract must be for more than $31.25 million. He'd have to be awesome to get that kind of money at that age...

i'm not trying to pick on you..but your post basically says that Scola has to decide if he wants to accept the Spurs offer, otherwise he will stay in Europe because it's the prudent economic decision. Scola has no bargaining power because 1 team owns his rights and determines his fair market value. In order for Scola to ever play in the NBA (unless the Spurs trade his rights), he has to accept whatever the Spurs are willing to pay. It's really quite simple, in this market he only has one option and with no one to bid up his services, he's at the mercy of the Spurs. It sucks but it is what it is.

[timvp]

Seriously, name a boderline undersized PF who got overpaid at 30

Matt Harpring would be a power forward on a lot of teams in the league.

But again, smallish power forwards aren't looked upon too highly in the NBA, which is another reason why giving Scola the richest contract in NBA history for a second rounder isn't a good idea. You are trying to hype him up out of one side of your mouth and then talk him down out of the other. Either he's a stud worth his $3.5M or he's a smallish power forward who'd be lucky to stick in the NBA. Pick a side.

And also, your calculations are off. First of all, not all European contracts have the tax taken out. Second of all, most European contracts have team options after each season. So a 7-year, $14M contract is basically a 1-year, $2M contract. If Scola got injured, he'd never see the other $12M.

[pad300]

i'm not trying to pick on you..but your post basically says that Scola has to decide if he wants to accept the Spurs offer, otherwise he will stay in Europe because it's the prudent economic decision. Scola has no bargaining power because 1 team owns his rights and determines his fair market value. In order for Scola to ever play in the NBA (unless the Spurs trade his rights), he has to accept whatever the Spurs are willing to pay. It's really quite simple, in this market he only has one option and with no one to bid up his services, he's at the mercy of the Spurs. It sucks but it is what it is.

It's quite possible that he may stay in Europe. I'm not sure that I would bring him over if I was the Spurs FO - it is my estimate that as a player he's worth the 3.5 million, but the opportunity cost might not be worth it. Currently, I see a need to do some significant retooling and the salary space might be needed. What gets me is the people who think he should take 2 million and be grateful...

In the next year (which is the earliest we would get him), if I was the FO, I would be running a youth movement and I'm not sure Scola fits with that. I'd make an exception for Grant Hill at the Min. I might also make an exception for Javtokas, as we really need a decent defensive big other than TD. I'm not sure our need for another scoring big is desperate... I'd really be looking for younger guys. Currently we have 4 picks in what looks to me to be a hugely deep draft - I'd expect to get 2 or 3 useful bodies. At that point, empty roster spots are going to be at a premium...

[pad300]

Matt Harpring would be a power forward on a lot of teams in the league.

But again, smallish power forwards aren't looked upon too highly in the NBA, which is another reason why giving Scola the richest contract in NBA history for a second rounder isn't a good idea. You are trying to hype him up out of one side of your mouth and then talk him down out of the other. Either he's a stud worth his $3.5M or he's a smallish power forward who'd be lucky to stick in the NBA. Pick a side.

And also, your calculations are off. First of all, not all European contracts have the tax taken out. Second of all, most European contracts have team options after each season. So a 7-year, $14M contract is basically a 1-year, $2M contract. If Scola got injured, he'd never see the other $12M.

Taken in reverse order. If he gets a significant injury, he's screwed here too, as he'll not get that big 2nd contract.

I think your going to extremes in your perception of Scola. I figure he'll stick and be useful - call it 25 mpg (7 to 10 beside Duncan, the rest as Duncan's backup), 17 pp/48, 10 rb/48(roughly Udonis Haslem, slightly more points, less rebounds, better FG%, less shot attempts. Udonis does get 30+ MPG though). Currently U-Has gets ~ 5 million per year, so 3.5 is a decent bargain. At 30 years old though, unless U-Has picks it up, he's not getting another $5 million per year contract (well, the Heat might give it to him as a loyalty bonus for long service, much like Harping). He'll transition to a backup player at 4 million per year on a 4 or 5 year contract.
By contrast, Marshall, in his last season with TO, was scoring 21 pp/48, getting 12.6 rb/48, shooting 3's really well, and playing 39 minutes per night. Marshall got less than 5 million per year and IIRC only got 4 years.
Scola will be a backup, playing 25 mpg, scoring and rebounding less than Marshall, and not having a special skill like a PF who can shoot 3's from the perimeter. Therefore, he's not going to get as much money, even accounting for inflation. It gets worse if the spurs improve their 3 spot offensively - it would take shoots from him. It gets worse if the Spurs get something in the draft or trade or FA,or from Mahnimi, Butler, or Javtokas that takes either C minutes from Duncan - sliding him full time to the PF (leaving only 15 MPG for Scola) or worst case, the best available player in the draft happens to be a PF good enough to challenge him for minutes at the backup.
I can't see it being worth Scola's while to come over starting at 6$ million / 3years. He's just leaving to much money on the table. He thinks it's worth it at 10.5/3, the FO doesn't.

[Kori Ellis]

Why do you always reference per 48 when talking about players?

As Pop said once, those kinds of stats are useless. There's reasons why certain guys only play 10 mpg.

[ChumpDumper]

I can't see it being worth Scola's while to come over starting at 6$ million / 3years. He's just leaving to much money on the table.

How much more would he make in Spain?

[Kori Ellis]

So basically you think that he'll average 8.8 p and 5 r in 25 mpg? Elson and Oberto average 5 and 5 in 20 minutes (so 6.25/6.25 in 25). So you think Scola is just about their equivalent?

[pad300]

Why do you always reference per 48 when talking about players?

As Pop said once, those kinds of stats are useless. There's reasons why certain guys only play 10 mpg.

I don't alway use per 48, and there are reasons why some guys only play 10 mpg (lousy defence, foul trouble). In this case, the reason Scola would only be playing 20-25 MPg would be that I predict he would not be a great fit beside TD. Which is why he'd be forced into the backup role behind TD. Scola would for example, fit much better on the Jazz, with Okur's shooting range at C, while Scola would be the primary post scorer. In a situation like that, I can see Scola starting, and playing 30-35 MPG. At which point, he might well get a larger contract at 30. I still can't really see him getting more than 25million/5years. At that age, people might overpay for 7 ft C's, but not for 6'8" PF's...

[ChumpDumper]

Scola would for example, fit much better on the Jazz

The let's trade him for Matt Harpring.

[pad300]

How much more would he make in Spain?

Well, my understanding is his current contract was 14 million Euro's/10 years, starting as a unproven 17 year old. He's now a 2 time Euroleague MVP, local fan favorite, in his prime, and there's been 10 years of inflation. I figure he'd get a minimum of 14 million Euros/7 years. At 1.3 US$/Euro, and Euro contracts being announced post taxes, theapproximate equivalent annual salary

NBA Equivalent Salary = [(1-(1/3))^-1]*(2000000*1.3) = 1.5*2600000 ~ 3.9 million per year.

Assuming no buyout to be paid to his current club.
The real question is how big of a contract can he expect after his "rookie" NBA contract. I think he's gambling big if he thinks more than $20 million over 5 years, due to the factors I outlined in previous posts. At that point, he's leaving at least 3 or 4 million on the table. If it goes bad, and he gets say an Elson level contract at 30, say 10.5 million for 3 years? Then I'd say he's leaving 15-20 million. If he hits it out of the park - $30 million over 5 years, he's making maybe 5 to 10 million...

[Kori Ellis]

Well, my understanding is his current contract was 14 million Euro's/10 years, starting as a unproven 17 year old.

Where did you hear that?

I always heard from people in the Argentinean media that his original contract was 10 year/7M Euros.

[pad300]

So basically you think that he'll average 8.8 p and 5 r in 25 mpg? Elson and Oberto average 5 and 5 in 20 minutes (so 6.25/6.25 in 25). So you think Scola is just about their equivalent?

As you say, there's reasons some people only play 20 MPG. In Elson and Oberto's cases, I think they are both pretty limited. For example, with the Nuggets, Elson got 20 MPG as well. With there usual starting C (camby) suffering his typical high injury level. Whereas Scola, would be caught somewhat in a bad fit crunch. On another team, he might get 30-35 mpg. It's just our PF slot is really strong (assuming TD plays PF).

The question I think you are getting at, is a backup player worth 3.5 million/year. I don't think that is overpaying for the 3ed big. In an Ideal world...
Ranking, Salary per year
1st Big - $14 million
2nd Big - $5-6 Million (MLE money), 2nd starter (for a different team , Scola fits here)
3ed Big - 1/2 the MLE (2.5-3.5 million), 1st big off the bench (Scola fits here for us)
4th -6ths bigs - Vet Min (max 2 million)

Total Expenditure on Bigs ~ 28 Million

2 Starting Wings ~ 12-14 million
2 Backups ~ 5-7 Million
2 Warm bodies ~ Vet minimum ($3 million forthe pair, max)

Total Expenditure on Wings ~ 22 Million,

Starting PG, (~10 million)
Backup PG, (2-4 million)
3d PG Vet Min (up to 2 Million)

Total Expenditure on PGs ~ 15 Million,

Overall Payroll - 65 million

Slightly over Lux tax, having a rookie contract or 2 in the top 10 players would help a lot...

I think in the modern NBA, to be strongly compe ive you need to be pushing the Lux tax. You can stay under the tax with at least 1 rook contract in your top 10 players. The spurs cheat a little, with under investment in their starting wings (Bowen is cheap) and the second big spot...

[pad300]

Where did you hear that?

I always heard from people in the Argentinean media that his original contract was 10 year/7M Euros.

Internet discussion like this one. I've yet to find an equivalent for Patricia's NBA salaries for Europe. (or anything even close).

BTW, do you know if there is anyone out there who keeps track of NBA front office people? It would be really interesting to see if Isiah has a favourite US scout we could pirate. I find it hard to believe that he's so good at spotting talent in the draft, but can't seem to evaluate it in trades...

[Kori Ellis]

Internet discussion like this one. I've yet to find an equivalent for Patricia's NBA salaries for Europe. (or anything even close).

BTW, do you know if there is anyone out there who keeps track of NBA front office people? It would be really interesting to see if Isiah has a favourite US scout we could pirate. I find it hard to believe that he's so good at spotting talent in the draft, but can't seem to evaluate it in trades...

On this page it lists all the Knicks scouts, their directors of scouting, etc.

http://www.nba.com/knicks/news/knick...directory.html

[pad300]

On this page it lists all the Knicks scouts, their directors of scouting, etc.

http://www.nba.com/knicks/news/knick...directory.html

Yeah, but that's only the current guys. The real question is there any commonality with Isiah's Toronto guys in 1994 to 1998, and Indiana in 2000-2003. I don't think that there is anyone but the NBA itself with the historical info...

[ArgSpursFan]

If Scola never comes over, there are 20-30 other players the Spurs could try to get and never have to think about him again.

True,nobody is saying that Scola is the best PF in the world.But at the same time,HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK THE SPURS WOULD PAY FOR ANOTHER PF NOT SCOLA WHO CAN PLAY AT THE SAME BALL LEVEL THAM HIM?
that could cost the spurs from 5M to at least 8M p/year for a half way decent player at most.
but they won´t pay 3.5 M for him cause he comes from Europe,Stupid

[ArgSpursFan]

As far as Fame goes, already really famous in Argentina and Europe. But he's never going to be a big name in the US.

I beat you thought the same when the spurs drafted a nobody called Manu ginobili back in 99 in a SECOND round pick as well.

[JPB]

I don't care if he would become or not a big name in the NBA. I'm more interested in what he could bring to the court.

[ArgSpursFan]

Listen,After all the quotes I´ve been reading on this threads,arguin for a 1.5M a year deference between what Scola wants and what ths spurs would pay him.How much you Honestly think the spurs could loose IF the team don´t get pass the playoffs 1st.round?as far as Home games tikets,TV rights(world wide),Merchandising,playoffs league pass etc,etc,etc,etc
Think about it,sometimes aint to good to be cheap.

[ArgSpursFan]

I don't care if he would become or not a big name in the NBA. I'm more interested in what he could bring to the court.

So,you like matt Bonner better right?.
get a life

[AFBlue]

True,nobody is saying that Scola is the best PF in the world.But at the same time,HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK THE SPURS WOULD PAY FOR ANOTHER PF NOT SCOLA WHO CAN PLAY AT THE SAME BALL LEVEL THAM HIM?
that could cost the spurs from 5M to at least 8M p/year for a half way decent player at most.
but they won´t pay 3.5 M for him cause he comes from Europe,Stupid

The point is that no one knows what level he will be able to play at in the NBA because it's a different stage. I think he'll be solid, but there IS some associated risk involved.

You might be right (Scola could be a solid starter and worth $5-8M per year) or you might be wrong (Scola is a classic role guy or worse worth $3M or less), but it really doesn't matter....

It's a calculated risk, but one that the Spurs FO should take for lack of better options.

[JPB]

So,you like matt Bonner better right?.
get a life

I don't get you here, I was defending your boy...

[ArgSpursFan]

I don't get you here, I was defending your boy...

sorry dude,my bad
kind of busy at work couldn´t read right
I apologize