i appreciate your enthusiasm for McCain but this post is misleading. As a former Brooklyn resident, I will tell you this...the article polled 600 residents in Nassau and Suffolk counties, neither of which includes any of the city's boroughs, so the Queens and Brooklyn reference is invalid. I'm certain that if you poll 600 residents in Brooklyn and Queens you would get SIGNIFICANTLY different results.
NY is not in play or swing state and McCain knows this or else he would be there trying to flip it.
Palin's favlorable/unfavorable ratings are trending down for her. I think the best the McCain campaign is going to get out of her is past us and its all downhill from here on out unless she manages to destroy Biden in the debate. Now, I don't put that beyond the realm of possibility but to be quite honest I put it in the extremely unlikely category.
Can't wait for today's state polls.
Battleground Update: The Red States Get Redder, The Blue States Get Purpler
Andrew Romano
One week ago today, I launched Stumper's general-election coverage with an in-depth look at where the "Race for the White House" stood in the wake of the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions. While the national polls had swung about 9 points in John McCain's direction since the Democrats left Denver, the Real Clear Politics electoral map still tilted every so slightly toward Barack Obama, 273 to 265. But the Illinois senator's slim lead was hardly set in stone--as I noted at the time. "No battleground state polls have been released since the second day of the Republican Convention," I wrote. "If the national surveys are right and McCain has in fact received a 5-point post-St. Paul bounce, that enthusiasm will almost certainly trickle down." I promised to revisit the map once the dust had settled.
Well, now it has. And what it shows is ... drumroll, please ... more of the same. According to Real Clear Politics, this week's map, posted above, is identical to last week's. Obama is still leading 273 electoral votes to 265.
Does that mean that Obama has emerged unscathed? Hardly. The Democratic nominee may have managed to maintain his razor-thin eight-vote margin--but he's done it by the skin of his teeth. Even if McCain has yet to flip a state, a closer look at the latest battleground polling reveals that the Arizonan's gains have, in fact, trickled down. They've had two effects. First, a handful of red states that Obama once hoped to win now seem either out of reach or more favorable to McCain, whether temporarily or permanently. And second, McCain is suddenly within striking distance in a group of Blue States where Obama until recently enjoyed a comfortable lead. The result: a campaign that once boasted about redrawing the electoral map by targeting an unprecedented 18 battlegrounds has been forced to focus on a more familiar swath of states--and even play defense in places it had hoped to win easily. In the last week, the Red States have gotten redder--and the Blue States have gotten purpler.
Take Montana and Georgia. In 2004, George W. Bush won the former by 20.5 percent and the later by 16.6 percent. But after clinching the Democratic nomination in early June, Obama put both states on his target list and deployed hundreds of volunteers and staffers to Atlanta and Helena to open field offices and register voters. He had reason for optimism. In early July, Rasmussen showed Obama ahead in Montana by 5 points; at the same time, an Insider Advantage poll put him a mere 2 points behind McCain in Georgia. But the latest surveys from those same firms tell a different story. According to an Insider Advantage sounding released last Thursday, McCain now leads 56-38 in the Peach State--an 18-point gulf. Meanwhile, the first postconvention poll by Rasmussen gives the Republican an 11-point advantage in the Treasure State, 53-42. Real Clear Politics has McCain ahead by an average of 13.4 percent in the former and 9.0 percent in the latter. Which means they may be out of reach.
The news for Obama in the key Bush states of Ohio and Florida isn't any better. In late July, the battle for the Sunshine State was tied at about 45 percent on average, and after Denver, Obama trailed by as little as 2.6 percent. But in the post-St. Paul period, McCain's Florida numbers have skyrocketed. Since last Monday, four surveys have hit the wires, with PPP (McCain +5), Quinnipiac (+7) and Insider Advantage (+8) all showing a growing lead for McCain; only FOX News still puts Obama within striking distance. According to the RCP average, McCain now boasts his largest edge (5 percent) since late June. The McCainward shift in the Buckeye State looks much the same. Of the six polls released since St. Paul, five show the Arizonan ahead--boosting him to his biggest RCP lead in this crucial, close-run battleground (2.5 percent) since mid-May. Even Virginia, a Bush state where Obama had held McCain to a tie for much of the cycle, seems to have drifted right. There, McCain now leads by 2.6 percent, 49.3 to 46.7--the largest margin for either candidate since May. The Republican nominee has also edged ahead in the latest polls out of New Mexico and Nevada--both Red in 2004, both leaning toward Obama before St. Paul.
But the most troubling developments for the Dems are probably in two states Kerry won in 2004: Pennsylvania and Minnesota. At the end of July, Obama led in the Keystone State by a whopping nine points, 51.7 percent to 41.7 percent; at the start of September he was ahead by a healthy five, 47.4 to 42.4. The three polls released since St. Paul, however, show McCain closing fast. In the Quinnipiac survey, McCain trails by a measly three points after lagging by seven in mid-August; Strategic Vision and Rasmussen put him within two. Overall, Obama's average lead in Pennsylvania--2.3 percent--is his smallest since capturing the nomination. And while a CNN/Gallup poll released between the conventions gave Obama a 12-point lead in Minnesota, the two soundings out since the GOP left the state earlier this month suggest that McCain is either tied with Obama at 45 percent (Star Tribune) or trailing by a statistically insignificant 2-percent margin (Survey USA). Couple that with the surprising 46 Obama-43 McCain result in the latest Wisconsin survey, and the Rust Belt and upper Midwest are starting to look too close for Chicago's comfort.
It's not all doom and gloom for Obama. So far this month, he's seems to have solidified his narrow margin in Michigan and New Hampshire (states McCain is hoping to flip) while expanding his edges in the Bush states of Iowa and Colorado, where he now leads by 9.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. If he wins these states in November--along with Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico--he wins the White House. New Democratic registrations and Chicago's sophisticated field operation will surely help. But what the last week of polling has shown beyond any doubt is that McCain's successful convention and shocking choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate have shifted the map ever so slightly to the right, transforming a landscape that favored Obama into a landscape that favors, well, no one. For the next six weeks, then, expect Obama and Joe Biden to play defense (Pennsylvania, Michigan) as well as offense (Colorado, Virginia, Nevada) while focusing much of their attention on the king of all swing states: Ohio. But don't expect the final map to look all that different from 2004.
McCain's bounce is starting to fade. The negativity and lies of his campaign are starting to catch up as well as the bad economic news.
I'll say this. If Obama does not improve his standings this week in the polls it's time to start worying.
Did you not read the article above your post? McCain's bounce is NOT starting to fade - he's making steady gains in several blue states!
Financial, Auto, and Energy industries are taking a had close look.
Obama loses in 2 out of the 3 for sure. Auto is still up for grabs, but Obama will lose that too if somehow McCain can make gains on HealthCare.
why read when you know everything and everyone else is stupid.
Eh my bad. I didn't read the part about Nassau and Suffolk. Yeah that explains why McCain has a 5 point lead.
However, this does not explain by Obama only has a 5 point lead in the state. An 18 point swing from the last poll by this company.
I agree about Brooklyn, which is why I qualified it with the word "insane". I do not agree about Queens...since Guilianni and Ptaki both took over 50% of the vote there(and it was out of the blue).I'm certain that if you poll 600 residents in Brooklyn and Queens you would get SIGNIFICANTLY different results.
We shall see.NY is not in play or swing state and McCain knows this or else he would be there trying to flip it.
Just out of curiosity, who are you voting for?
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...for_love_.html
New York GOP delegation lookin' for love from McCain
Tuesday, September 2nd 2008, 12:05 AM
ST. PAUL - New York Republicans want John McCain to see their state as more than a giant ATM.
Just because they're an endangered species with no statewide offices - and poised to potentially lose at least three of their six U.S. House seats and control of the state Senate - doesn't mean they should be ignored, said Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.).
"I think he should be doing more here," said King, one of the few New York elected officials attending the Republican National Convention.
"There are areas of New York where McCain can do well," King insisted. "I would say Long Island, Queens, Brooklyn and parts of upstate. I'm hoping some of the people around him are getting the message."
The last GOP presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan, in 1980 and 1984. Democratic enrollment has grown since then, while the number of registered Republicans has shrunk.
The New York GOP was heartened by a recent Siena poll that found Barack Obama leading McCain by just 8 percentage points, 47% to 39%, compared with 50% to 37% in July.
State GOP Chairman Joe Mondello wants McCain to campaign with state Senate candidates targeted by the Democrats - perhaps Queens Sen. Serphin Maltese or Long Island Sen. Caesar Trunzo.
"New York is more than just a place to stop and get money," the chairman declared.
Mondello recalled how Reagan campaigned with Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos in 1984 during Skelos' second attempt to oust Democratic state Sen. Carol Berman.
The chairman is convinced that made the difference for Skelos, who beat Berman, 51% to 49%.
"The same thing could happen with McCain," Mondello said. "I believe he could carry New York" - and also carry GOP senators on his coattails.
McCain has largely bypassed New York, except for fund-raising. He has no campaign headquarters in New York State, preferring to let his New Jersey headquarters do double duty.
Mondello was infuriated following a recent conference call during which he was informed McCain planned to "write off" New York, a source familiar with the call said.
Ed Cox, head of McCain's New York campaign, insisted no such decision has been made and said: "We are very compe ive in New York. He will be in New York campaigning, yes."
Apology awaited.
McCain wins with Pennsylvannia and with the latest fraud of an energy bill I see McCain pulling ahead 'till the debates. If NY swings toward McCain, and it can with financials needing massive cash infusions , it's over for Obama. Obama has a 5pt lead in NY.
The debates are going to decide this thing.
I can see Obama's message of calling everyone in the financial industry a bunch of crooks working in his favor, not.
Two new Jersey polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-250.html
Code:Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average 09/04 - 09/14 -- 48.4 42.6 Obama +5.8 Monmouth/Gannett 09/11 - 09/14 589 LV 49 41 Obama +8 Quinnipiac 09/10 - 09/14 1187 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Including a second one showing Obama with only a 3 point lead among likely voters.
I notice something interesting...the larger the sample size of the poll...the worse Obama fares. The two polls that contacted the most voters are the ones that show Obama with a 3 point lead.
The two polls with the smallest sample sizes are the ones that give him the biggest lead.
Come on Barack!!!!
edit
There's a poll out right now that has McCain up by 2 points in Montana. I suppose Barack is going to turn Montana blue and McCain is going to turn NJ and NY red.
me.. i need to learn to read ahead.
I'll say this. If the Dems can't win the presidency this time around, then it's time to fold the tents and dismantle the party.
Somewhere Bill and Hiillary are laughing their asses off.
The Clintons want control. Obama winning is not in the game plan. The Clintons will do just enough not to piss people off.
I would vote for Bill right now.
No, it would be a bad electorate. Sorry, but it's true. Might not always win, but always right.
i don't want to vote for either one of these ers because neither is going to change anything. i don't affiliate with any party because i don't identify with solely liberal or conservative ideologies. life and people are too complex to be pegged into one of the two choices we're given.
i generally vote for the lesser of the two evils. i'm voting obama this time because the repubs had 8 years and it's time to alternate. then when the dems it'll be time to alternate again.
It was a rhetorical question
if NY was seriously in play, one would think he would have an office somewhere in the state. and...there wouldn't be conference calls saying that McCain is writing off the state.
again, i appreciate your enthusiasm but there is no way McCain takes NY.
It was a rhetorical question
You gotta be kidding me...nothing is worse than Bush Kerry in 04. This is light years ahead of that.
I've got an interesting bit of info concerning fund raising to make on this but I have to go class right now...I'll be back later.
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