1) They're probably going to be the #1 seed in the NFC this year. Considering the Falcons are already the class of the NFC South, and their AFC compe ion comes from the worst division in football -- the AFC South -- there's not a whole lot of games you can pick them to lose this season, barring serious injury. The @ 49ers and @ Panthers games are the best two guesses, and the odds are they'll win one of those, lose one of those, and lose a different (unexpected) game. I think there's a good probability that they finish 14–2 with their cupcake schedule. The other likely division winners just don't have nearly as favorable of schedules. The Packers have the same @ 49ers and @ Panthers games and they also have to travel to Arizona and Denver, plus Detroit and Minnesota (they likely lose 3 or 4 out of these five, and perhaps an additional game as well, such as the Cowboys home game in mid-December assuming everyone important is back healthy). The Seahawks are already down 2 games in the NFC West, and the Cardinals have a more difficult schedule than the Falcons (though maybe not as hard as the Packers') as they play in the NFC West and plus having to travel to both Detroit and Pittsburgh, though if Big Ben's ACL is done the latter game should be a win. The Falcons have by far the easiest schedule of the NFC contenders, and should look to go 13–3 without much difficulty or 14–2 if they really go all out (and Ryan/Jones/Freeman/D-line all stay healthy... Freeman and the D-line really impressed me today in the win in Dallas, particularly in the second half).
2) That being said, they are beatable by the Cowboys with a healthy defense and Romo. The second half collapse today might end up working out in the Cowboys' favor long-term if the Falcons end up as the #1 seed by one game instead of the Packers or Cardinals. Let's face it, frozen tundra Lambeau in January is one of the most difficult places to win in the postseason in the history of sports. The Packers haven't won any championships recently due to their relative mediocrity on the road, not for a lack of dominance at home. Even if the Cowboys can beat the Packers in Green Bay in December, they should try to avoid them as much as possible in January in a building where Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown a pick in three years, including playoffs. The Falcons proved in the first half of today's game that they are beatable by the Cowboys; the Cowboys ultimately lost because: a] the D-Line couldn't get pressure on Ryan to save their lives and b] Weeden had a few costly mental breakdowns, from the bad interception on the obvious "throw it out of bounds please" play that was essentially a pick 6, to the more critical play down 4 with the ball on 3rd down and 3 to go in Cowboys territory where he remained in a tight pocket far too long and took a sack when he probably could have either checked it down or ran for an easy first down. With Romo, Hardy, Gregory, and McClain (or at least half of those) no doubt the Cowboys would have held on to the lead today. Dez Bryant's presence would have helped, too, as the deep ball to Terrance Williams would open back up. That being said, the Cowboys are a better road team than at home, and the Falcons have been known to lose big home games in the playoffs in the Ryan era. The Cardinals wouldn't be a horrible draw, so let's hope they beat out the Packers for the #2 seed, forcing Green Bay to play a divisional game in Arizona, the Packers lose and the Cowboys (assuming they beat the #5 seed in round 1 and Atlanta in their divisional game) would match up pretty well against the Cardinals for a potential NFC Championship Game.