S*** hits the fan in Georgia: war with Russia?

[clambake]

No problem, I want to see what Congress looks into and see's. They live in a vacuum I know, most cant even remember intel briefings on Iraq. But I am sure they will, in their wisdom, lead us into the perfect solution. And help solve this "little" problem between friends (?).

senior moment post

My real answer: We wont do anything. Russian has a free hand to do whatever they want.

georgia helped your boy in afghanistan, so you expect your boy to turn his back on them. i agree!

[Extra Stout]

Aside from the personal attacks, that explains why the US gets involved with everyone over every conflict?

1) Diplomacy is one of the essential components of statecraft, and has been since antiquity. If this were AD 100 and Huns were moving into the Caucusus, officials in Rome would make it their business to know about it. If this were 1000 B.C. and something were stirring up around the Black Sea, Egypt would want to know about it.

2) Russia is a major world power, and anything they do has an impact upon U.S. interests.

3) A war in the Caucusus impacts Turkey, America's key NATO ally in the Near/Middle East.

4) A war in the Caucusus impacts Iran, a nation in which the U.S has some interest these days.

5) A war involving Russia impacts global energy security, an issue which affects your uninformed person every time you want to drive somewhere or use your air conditioning.

6) The United States cannot be disinterested in a conflict which could impact NATO, because the United States is the dominant partner in NATO.

7) The battle raging in Georgia is less than 400 miles away from U.S. troops in Mosul, Iraq.

Your failure to grasp points #1 and #7 is the most grating. I am guessing you have some problem with the U.S. being a global superpower with interests in every nook and cranny of the globe. The mere act of diplomacy in addressing the Russian-Georgian conflict has nothing to do with that. It would be the job of the diplomat from East Asscrackia to contact the Russians and urge a ceasefire. So your failure to apprehend point #1 betrays a basic ignorance of statecraft.

Now, your failure to grasp point #7 betrays a failure on your point to exercise your reponsibility to be an informed American citizen.

[clambake]

1) Diplomacy is one of the essential components of statecraft, and has been since antiquity. If this were AD 100 and Huns were moving into the Caucusus, officials in Rome would make it their business to know about it. If this were 1000 B.C. and something were stirring up around the Black Sea, Egypt would want to know about it.

2) Russia is a major world power, and anything they do has an impact upon U.S. interests.

3) A war in the Caucusus impacts Turkey, America's key NATO ally in the Near/Middle East.

4) A war in the Caucusus impacts Iran, a nation in which the U.S has some interest these days.

5) A war involving Russia impacts global energy security, an issue which affects your uninformed person every time you want to drive somewhere or use your air conditioning.

6) The United States cannot be disinterested in a conflict which could impact NATO, because the United States is the dominant partner in NATO.

7) The battle raging in Georgia is less than 400 miles away from U.S. troops in Mosul, Iraq.

Your failure to grasp points #1 and #7 is the most grating. I am guessing you have some problem with the U.S. being a global superpower with interests in every nook and cranny of the globe. The mere act of diplomacy in addressing the Russian-Georgian conflict has nothing to do with that. It would be the job of the diplomat from East Asscrackia to contact the Russians and urge a ceasefire. So your failure to apprehend point #1 betrays a basic ignorance of statecraft.

Now, your failure to grasp point #7 betrays a failure on your point to exercise your reponsibility to be an informed American citizen.

so......you play with him........like toy.

[j-6]

Georgia is slated to be on the NATO roll call in December, or at least the one year formal application is supposed to start for them. This could have been a lot worse - Western Europe and the US engaged in a conflict with Russia over some renegade Georgian province.

(Of course, I don't see Russia attacking a NATO member, which might explain the timing of this.)

I never thought I'd say this, but thank God Dubya's in the saddle right now. I have full confidence that he'll side with the Russians and this will drop to a blurb on the paper's world page within a week.

[Extra Stout]

so......you play with him........like toy.

Yes... like toy. Simple American. American listen to Shostakovich, think music pretty. Not hear satire. American ear like child. We crush you!

[j-6]

South Ossetia is the size of Victoria and most of its citizens hold Russian passports, with aspirations of becoming their own nation. Georgia says no, we fought for this land twenty years ago. North Ossetia-Alania is a semi-autonomous nation in Russia, with ten times the population of South Ossetia. The Ossetians, on both sides, have been watching the military buildup on the Russian / North Ossetian border for over a month. As soon as the attack started, the South Ossetians fled north, toward the Russian armed forces and their brethren's republic.

Even my dumb ass can spin this into a liberation and unification exercise. Everyone wins. The Ossetians can be united in their own country under the Russian Federation's umbrella, which looks like what they wanted in the first place. Georgia rids itself of a troublesome province and can concentrate on the rest of its warlords in Abkhazia, further stabilization, and improve it's lot with NATO.

[RandomGuy]

Why is everybody assuming the U.S. is involved? Because RG made wild speculation? The U.S. will offer up nothing more than a stern rebuke to Russia.

Just to be clear, I suggested no US involvement or intention to move in militarily.

I have absolutely no firm idea as to what the current administration may do, but agree with the general consensus that the most likely course of action is to refrain from interfering.

Western Europe is another matter, but I don't see them intervening militarily either.

I think this may finally spark them to invest some Euros in upgrading their militaries, though.

[RandomGuy]

Yakobashvili said that one Russian plane had dropped a bomb on the Vaziani military base near the Georgian capital, but no one was hurt.

More than 1,000 U.S. Marines and soldiers were at the base last month to teach combat skills to Georgian troops. Georgia has about 2,000 troops in Iraq, making it the third-largest contributor to coalition forces after the U.S. and Britain.

I wonder if any are still there?

[Anti.Hero]

Wow. That could have caused some horrible outcomes.

[MannyIsGod]

We do still have a lot of personal in country. They talked about it on the news earlier.

[Brutalis]

1) Diplomacy is one of the essential components of statecraft, and has been since antiquity. If this were AD 100 and Huns were moving into the Caucusus, officials in Rome would make it their business to know about it. If this were 1000 B.C. and something were stirring up around the Black Sea, Egypt would want to know about it.

2) Russia is a major world power, and anything they do has an impact upon U.S. interests.

3) A war in the Caucusus impacts Turkey, America's key NATO ally in the Near/Middle East.

4) A war in the Caucusus impacts Iran, a nation in which the U.S has some interest these days.

5) A war involving Russia impacts global energy security, an issue which affects your uninformed person every time you want to drive somewhere or use your air conditioning.

6) The United States cannot be disinterested in a conflict which could impact NATO, because the United States is the dominant partner in NATO.

7) The battle raging in Georgia is less than 400 miles away from U.S. troops in Mosul, Iraq.

Your failure to grasp points #1 and #7 is the most grating. I am guessing you have some problem with the U.S. being a global superpower with interests in every nook and cranny of the globe. The mere act of diplomacy in addressing the Russian-Georgian conflict has nothing to do with that. It would be the job of the diplomat from East Asscrackia to contact the Russians and urge a ceasefire. So your failure to apprehend point #1 betrays a basic ignorance of statecraft.

Now, your failure to grasp point #7 betrays a failure on your point to exercise your reponsibility to be an informed American citizen.

Why couldn't you have said this to begin with? I already knew you enjoying being disliked and an asshole but got damn you sure take it to extremes.

No I do not have some problem with it, and I am not a political person as such seldom post here therefor I bare the question to begin with, not that you're smart enough to humor that.

I understand your point about being a superpower. However using Rome and Egypt and such for examples is what is humor, considering they fell flat on their face. So now if I was you I would assume my ever existing asshole like fever and assume for you also that we are going to fall and cease to hold any power at all, but frankly I'm not so arrogant/ignorant with the same chip on my shoulder.

And lastly. I ing hate people that post like you. You are an educated person and close to double my age, I get it. I've seen that since I started posting here. But I would bet anything you wouldn't dare act like you do on this forum to me, or someone to their face in the real world. I don't play the internet tough guy bull but for several months now I notice what flat pussy you are and how fake your role is on this forum. Give me a typical reply not unlike yourself as I know you will, and make some fruitless judgment towards me as it's obvious your life is completely routine, and connect your words leaving you feel confident inside all you wish. That's nothing new with you. But understand people like you that act one way on here, and different outside those walls of your comfortable existence are complete worn out tools with no backbone. Because if you did act as such, you'd have no friends and no social life at all. Harvey Dent much?

[cool hand]

lets get'em

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

We are witnessing the rebirth of the Soviet Union. Bush's policy of aggressively encircling Russia with anti-missile systems really pissed off Putin and Russian nationalists (never mind that the systems can easily be made ineffective so we did not get much out of it either). That coupled with sitting on our hands as democratic elements were suppressed is about to come bite us on our butts.

It is a terrible shame that our country has such ineffective (read dumb) leadership at such a critical junction in our history.

Wow, I expected croutons to go to the 'it's Bush's fault' card. Welcome byron

This doesn't have to do with the U.S., it's what happens when you have a KGB idealist in Putin as president and now as prime minister with a puppet protege of his in Medvedev as president. Putin wants to go back to the Cold War days of Mother Russia.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Georgia is slated to be on the NATO roll call in December, or at least the one year formal application is supposed to start for them. This could have been a lot worse - Western Europe and the US engaged in a conflict with Russia over some renegade Georgian province.

(Of course, I don't see Russia attacking a NATO member, which might explain the timing of this.)

I never thought I'd say this, but thank God Dubya's in the saddle right now. I have full confidence that he'll side with the Russians and this will drop to a blurb on the paper's world page within a week.

You highlighted exactly why Russia is going in now. This has been in their plans all along and if they waited until December they'd be up against NATO.

Georgia is already asking for a ceasefire and Russia's saying you. Nothing more than a Russian land grab.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I wonder if any are still there?

I heard we've got about 500 troops still there at that base. Damn, if it they would have gotten some of our troops when they dropped that bomb...

[clambake]

I heard we've got about 500 troops still there at that base. Damn, if it they would have gotten some of our troops when they dropped that bomb...

what?......finish.

[cool hand]

Russia would be no match for an all-out American Assault.

[Extra Stout]

Why couldn't you have said this to begin with? I already knew you enjoying being disliked and an asshole but got damn you sure take it to extremes.

You caught me on a grouchy day. They're less frequent than they used to be.

I understand your point about being a superpower. However using Rome and Egypt and such for examples is what is humor, considering they fell flat on their face. So now if I was you I would assume my ever existing asshole like fever and assume for you also that we are going to fall and cease to hold any power at all, but frankly I'm not so arrogant/ignorant with the same chip on my shoulder.

Every single country eventually falls. Even America. Actually, our fall is sooner than you think.

And lastly. I ing hate people that post like you. You are an educated person and close to double my age, I get it.

I'm not that much older than you.

I've seen that since I started posting here. But I would bet anything you wouldn't dare act like you do on this forum to me, or someone to their face in the real world.

You're capable of a lot more than you think you are. That's the point of busting out the stereotype. It's ironic. You don't really fit it. If you put a tenth of the effort into understanding current events that you do into Arkansas football, you'd be the expert.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Georgia fell into Russia's trap.
I give props to Georgia for picking this time to launch an attack, but they are complete utter incompetent fools beyond fools if they did not make it number 1 priority to block the tunnel (roki?). They basically bombed the out of another ethnic minority group, failed to seal off the main route for Russian reinforcements, which they should have seen coming, now are gonna get bombed to .

Russia has played this entire scenario flawlessly, and you have to give them mad credit. Not only did they give south ossetians passports and attempt to dissolve pretty much every barrier possible (besides those on a map and geographic ones), but they pretty much kept daring and daring and daring Georgia to act. They supported S. Ossetia (and Abkhazia) from their inception, and steadily increased support throughout the years, more noticeably during this past year and after the Kosovo declaration of Independence back in Feb.

Georgia should have made closing off the tunnel a top priority, occupied the region, and gone all out. They had to take more steps than this to successfully portray Russia as the bad guy here.
Instead, what we have seen is a half assed attack, sheer pussification, and Russia instantly moving all the tanks and troops they already had at the ready right into the South Ossetian region with ease. Russia was ready, they had been ready, for years.

It boggles my mind how this can be all there is to the story but so far that's what it seems like. The Georgian President trying to evoke "american values" in regards to this crises really tells me that this guy bit off wayyy more than he could chew and he irrationally has been keeping Western Support as his wild card.....a completely stupid stupid grasp of the situation. This is such a stupid method of action that I can't help but believe there has to be more to come....But maybe not.

Everything involving precedent is on Russia's side. They even had the foresight to make those S. Ossetians citizens, so that while its not like those are real Russians, they get to win the media war and portray Georgia as the aggressor and in the wrong.

This is not a Russian "Land Grab" either btw. What Russia's goal is, what it always has been, is energy monopoly. Theyre going to take this battle into Georgia as deep as possible and try to shut down the Baku-Tsibili-Ceyan pipeline. Even though the pipeline currently accounts for very little of the overall energy to Europe, it has the potential for much, much more.

I expect to see the Western rhetoric step up alot more if Russia continues to trek into the heart of Georgia, but every possible precedent, and thanks to this ty first attack, every moral consideration is in favor of Russia.

We're witnessing the most well played geopolitical scenario of 21st century Russia.

[MannyIsGod]

Damn, thats vintage CBF posting.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Very typical of this forum (and the world) that a "john edwards is human and s able worthy willing women" thread is outpacing a thread such as this which pertains to truly worldshaping events.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Seriously though, the reports of 1,000 dead would mean that Georgia has eliminated 1/50th - 1/70th of the entire population of South Ossetia. Do you think the US media wouldn't have burst their chode vessels and spewed blood for at least 16 minutes if this had happened in Kosovo?

The key here is that the common marriott Russian more than likely totally totally believes that Russia is in the right, neoconesque christian bullheaded Bush style.

Combined with the precedent factor, Russia pretty much has a free turn to do whatever the it wants. The only catch for Russia is that if they handle it wrong, or if a Georgian tears up the media in the right way, it might incite ethnically distinct regions to start up their own conflicts. What I will never understand is how the Georgian President would follow throw with physical force unless he had some sort of deal with another anti-Russian element. If they went into this conflict by themselves, only counting on the West, then they pretty much deserve anything that Russia is willing to dish out.

[Manu'sMagicalLeftHand]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7549736.stm


Q&A: Violence in South Ossetia

Escalating tensions between Georgia and its breakaway province of South Ossetia have erupted into serious fighting.

The separatist administration in South Ossetia has been trying to gain formal independence since breaking away in a civil war in the 1990s.

Russia has troops in the region, on a peacekeeping mandate. But Moscow also supports the separatists.

What is the status of South Ossetia?

South Ossetia has run its own affairs since fighting for independence from Georgia in 1991-92, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It has declared independence, though this has not been recognised by any other country.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to bring South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, back under full Georgian control.

Why do Ossetians want to break away?

The Ossetians are a distinct ethnic group originally from the Russian plains just south of the Don river. In the 13th Century, they were pushed southwards by Mongol invasions into the Caucasus mountains, settling along the border with Georgia.

South Ossetians want to join up with their ethnic brethren in North Ossetia, which is an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation.

Ethnic Georgians are a minority in South Ossetia, accounting for less than one-third of the population.

But Georgia rejects even the name, South Ossetia, preferring to call it by the ancient name of Samachablo, or Tskhinvali, after its main city.

What triggered the latest crisis?

Tension has risen since the election of President Saakashvili in 2004. He offered South Ossetia dialogue and autonomy within a single Georgian state - but in 2006 South Ossetians voted in an unofficial referendum to press their demands for complete independence.

In April 2008 Nato said Georgia would be allowed to join the alliance at some point - angering Russia, which opposes the eastward expansion of Nato. Weeks later, Russia stepped up ties with the separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In July Russia admitted its fighter jets entered Georgian airspace over South Ossetia to "cool hot heads in Tbilisi". Occasional clashes escalated, until six people were reportedly killed by Georgian s ing. Attempts to reach a ceasefire quickly collapsed.

Could Russia become directly involved in war?

Russia insists it has been acting as a peacekeeper in South Ossetia, rejecting Georgian accusations that it has been supplying arms to the separatists.

However, it has vowed to defend its citizens in South Ossetia - of which there are many. More than half of South Ossetia's 70,000 citizens are said to have taken up Moscow's offer of a Russian passport.

Russia may view limited military intervention as less risky than recognising South Ossetia's independence, which could lead to all-out war with Georgia.

What about Georgia's links to Nato?

President Saakashvili has made membership of Nato one of his main goals. Georgia has a close relationship with the United States and has been cultivating ties with Western Europe.

There are those who believe that Mr Saakashvili may be hoping to draw Nato into a conflict with Moscow, making their alliance a formal one.

But analysts say it is difficult to imagine Nato allowing itself to be drawn into a direct conflict with its Cold War rival after managing to avoid that for so long.

[Nbadan]

After the illegal invasion of Iraq I'm not sure the Bush administration has any legs to stand on to tell Russia to do anything...

U.S. tells Russia to pull forces out of Georgia
By Susan Cornwell and Sue Pleming

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States told Russia on Friday to withdraw its forces from U.S. ally Georgia and stop its air attacks on the tiny Caucasus state following fighting in the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

"We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia's territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a statement.

Rice issued her statement as Georgia, a former Soviet state that now wants to join NATO, said it would declare martial law as it battled to get control of the rebel enclave, which was backed by Russian forces.

Reuters

[Nbadan]

Meanwhile..

Georgia is a key link in a U.S.-backed ``southern energy corridor'' that links the Caspian Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia, the world's biggest energy producer. Two pipelines pass through the country linking Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which has been closed since Aug. 5 due to an explosion in Turkey, runs about 100 kilometers south of the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.

Bloomberg

Russia could be looking at this as a opportune time to attack Georgia for many reasons

* U.S. forces, which also make up most of NATO might tied up in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

* The expansion of NATO influence into former Soviet countries

* The control of the flow of oil in the Caspein sea region