Arenas out until December

[Mister Sinister]

This is why I am not a NBA GM. If you played the percentages, you cut Arenas lose and hope for a decent lottery pick.

If I gave a typical shooting guard from the lottery that many touches, don't you think he could come awfully damn close to Agent Zero's production? The Wizards won't win with Arenas, so why not roll the dice and spend the money elsewhere?

It reminds me of the Pacers trying to build around J.O. Yeah, the house of sticks is a lot better than the house of straw, but I'd rather move on up to the East Side with the Jeffersons.

I think you might be mixing your fables and your sitcoms.

[JamStone]

If I gave a typical shooting guard from the lottery that many touches, don't you think he could come awfully damn close to Agent Zero's production?

No. These are the shooting (and combo) guards taken in the lottery in recent drafts:

Brandon Roy
Randy Foye
Ronnie Brewer
Martell Webster
Rashad McCants
Ben Gordon
Luke Jackson
Josh Childress
Andre Iguodala
Dwyane Wade
Jarvis Hayes
Fred Jones
Mickael Pietrus

You have guys like Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade and Ben Gordon who can put up great offensive numbers like Arenas, but it's far from typical. You can give those guys as many touches as Arenas, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to get as many quality shots off or make as many quality shots as Arenas can. That's what separates a guy like Arenas from a "typical lottery caliber shooting guard." Arenas (pre-knee injuries) had the elite explosiveness, quickness, and athleticism, but he also had a great handle to create space and get to the rim, ability to finish at the basket, and unlimited range on his jumper to force defenders to not give him too much room. Most of those players with the exception of Wade and Roy on that list had one of those three things, a few maybe two of the three, but not all three.

Plus, even if you gave those guys that many touches and they could come close to Arenas' scoring production, would they also be putting up 6 assists per game?

Gilbert is a character. He's a clown. He talks a lot of for a player that hasn't done anything of meaning in the playoffs. But, before the knee problems, his talent is undeniable. No, the typical lottery 2-guard could not do what Gilbert would do. Heck, there are only about a handful of perimeter players in the league that can do what a healthy Gilbert Arenas can do offensively.

The Wizards won't win with Arenas, so why not roll the dice and spend the money elsewhere?

That may be true. But, how many NBA superstars are the type of player that you just know you'll build a championship team around. A handful? 5-10? Duncan, Shaq... I hesitate to put even guys like Kobe, LeBron, KG, Chris Paul, and Dwyane Wade on the list. There are no championship guarantees with any players, even any superstar players with the very rare exceptions like a Duncan or a Shaq. I could even say LeBron and maybe Chris Paul. But, that's about it, and that's trying to predict the future.

Arenas might be overpaid, but so are most players in the NBA. I laugh at the contract based on his knee injuries, not based on what he produces on the court. I don't agree that the Wizards are a better team, at least long term, without Arenas. They played well without him, but they would have still lost in the first round and they would still not be a championship caliber team. I think a healthy Arenas that plays smart (which could be asking much from him) makes the Wizards a better team.

[BlackSwordsMan]

this guy has a lot of time to play xbox now

[MrChug]

Now...the NBA breaks down.

[Sense]

Best thing that could've happened to the Wizards

[SpursFanFirst]

Oh yeah...that sure was money well spent!

[Reggie Miller]

You would have had to have steel balls to let Arenas walk without getting anything in return, but I agree, it wouldn't have been as crazy as it seemed strictly from a dollar-for-talent standpoint. Or try to get a sign-and-trade for the right pieces.

The problem is Arenas is popular with most of the fan base and his teammates, so it would have caused considerable discontent.

Yep. Again, no one is beating down my door to hire me as a GM.

The sign-and-trade would be the way to go here, because you could leverage a player you actually wanted for pure salary cap considerations. Someone would probably offer a max contract to Arenas, but odds are, your team would have to eat too much flotsam amd jetsam in return.

I don't pretend to be some sort of basketball savant, but you may remember how pissed off I was when the Spurs didn't take a flyer on Landry OR include him in the Scola deal. Just sayin'... (Landry isn't that great, but he beats the crap out of nothing...)

[Brutalis]

Anyone honestly surprised? The dude is as fragile as a glass bottle dancing with a ledge.

[Reggie Miller]

No. These are the shooting (and combo) guards taken in the lottery in recent drafts:

Brandon Roy
Randy Foye
Ronnie Brewer
Martell Webster
Rashad McCants
Ben Gordon
Luke Jackson
Josh Childress
Andre Iguodala
Dwyane Wade
Jarvis Hayes
Fred Jones
Mickael Pietrus

You have guys like Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade and Ben Gordon who can put up great offensive numbers like Arenas, but it's far from typical. You can give those guys as many touches as Arenas, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to get as many quality shots off or make as many quality shots as Arenas can. That's what separates a guy like Arenas from a "typical lottery caliber shooting guard." Arenas (pre-knee injuries) had the elite explosiveness, quickness, and athleticism, but he also had a great handle to create space and get to the rim, ability to finish at the basket, and unlimited range on his jumper to force defenders to not give him too much room. Most of those players with the exception of Wade and Roy on that list had one of those three things, a few maybe two of the three, but not all three.

Plus, even if you gave those guys that many touches and they could come close to Arenas' scoring production, would they also be putting up 6 assists per game?

Gilbert is a character. He's a clown. He talks a lot of for a player that hasn't done anything of meaning in the playoffs. But, before the knee problems, his talent is undeniable. No, the typical lottery 2-guard could not do what Gilbert would do. Heck, there are only about a handful of perimeter players in the league that can do what a healthy Gilbert Arenas can do offensively.




That may be true. But, how many NBA superstars are the type of player that you just know you'll build a championship team around. A handful? 5-10? Duncan, Shaq... I hesitate to put even guys like Kobe, LeBron, KG, Chris Paul, and Dwyane Wade on the list. There are no championship guarantees with any players, even any superstar players with the very rare exceptions like a Duncan or a Shaq. I could even say LeBron and maybe Chris Paul. But, that's about it, and that's trying to predict the future.

Arenas might be overpaid, but so are most players in the NBA. I laugh at the contract based on his knee injuries, not based on what he produces on the court. I don't agree that the Wizards are a better team, at least long term, without Arenas. They played well without him, but they would have still lost in the first round and they would still not be a championship caliber team. I think a healthy Arenas that plays smart (which could be asking much from him) makes the Wizards a better team.

In case I haven't reminded you lately, I dig you reasoning, and I generally do.

However, I'm thinking about the following roughly in this order:

1) Injuries. I don't offer a fragile two guard a max deal or anything close. His production in 2008-2009 isn't even the issue.

2) Compe iveness. The Wizards aren't winning even the EC anytime soon. At the same time, it doesn't take an all-world team to make the playoffs in the East these days. A Washington team led by Arenas has as much chance of bringing home the Championship as your typical late 1980s Reggie Miller Pacers' squad.

3) Arenas in Practical Terms. Arenas has played less than 82 games in the last two seasons. In my mind, this is a clear case of replacement value considerations. That is, is 50% of Arenas and 50% of his replacement production worth more than gambling on the best available healthy shooting guard from the next lottery? To be honest, I don't pretend to be a real savant in this regard. Obviously, Arenas is well above average when healthy. Obviously, $111 million is a load of looie.

[m33p0]

I wouldn't be surprised if Wizard fans are actually thankful.

[Sissiborgo]

I like Arenas good job for him...

[Reggie Miller]

I think you might be mixing your fables and your sitcoms.

Hey, bud! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?!

But seriously, I think today we've all learned:

1. People who live in glass houses love Raymond;
2. A penny saved is a penny toward a DVD rental, so that you don't have to watch King of Queens; and
3. Slow and steady doesn't necessarily win the Amazing Race.

I've been meaning to tell you for a while that I love that signature animation. Ever seen Tom Kenny's old Wonder Woman routine?

[JamStone]

In case I haven't reminded you lately, I dig you reasoning, and I generally do.

However, I'm thinking about the following roughly in this order:

1) Injuries. I don't offer a fragile two guard a max deal or anything close. His production in 2008-2009 isn't even the issue.

2) Compe iveness. The Wizards aren't winning even the EC anytime soon. At the same time, it doesn't take an all-world team to make the playoffs in the East these days. A Washington team led by Arenas has as much chance of bringing home the Championship as your typical late 1980s Reggie Miller Pacers' squad.

3) Arenas in Practical Terms. Arenas has played less than 82 games in the last two seasons. In my mind, this is a clear case of replacement value considerations. That is, is 50% of Arenas and 50% of his replacement production worth more than gambling on the best available healthy shooting guard from the next lottery? To be honest, I don't pretend to be a real savant in this regard. Obviously, Arenas is well above average when healthy. Obviously, $111 million is a load of looie.

I don't disagree with your main points, but that wasn't what you were getting at earlier. You were basically downplaying Gilbert Arenas' talent by saying the typical 2-guard drafted in the lottery could put up comparable production as Arenas. I disagreed on that point. You're shifting your focus to injuries now, which is a point I would agree with.

And, again, in terms of championship, even most superstars aren't guaranteeing their respective teams championships in the NBA. It's not like the Wizards can spend that $111 on Tim Duncan or Shaq in his prime. They have no way of getting guys like Kobe or LeBron or Wade or Chris Paul or Dwight Howard either. So, they take a superstar talent that they already have Bird Rights to and hope they can build around him with the right pieces. For the Wizards, it's not about championships. They haven't been past the first round of the playoffs in decades (I believe). They're just trying to climb into the discussion of top tier teams.

What you're basically implying is that they start over, start from scratch, let Arenas walk or trade him for expiring contracts and build on a real superstar that can lead actually give them a shot at a championship. You almost imply that it's easy. It's not. It's likely that they'd be no closer and in fact much farther from any championship aspirations had they not re-signed Arenas and may never get closer. There are teams that languish in mediocrity in all pro sports. There are teams that never even get a whiff of conference finals even with very good teams. No, the Wizards aren't going to bring home a championship any time soon. You can say that about 25+ other NBA teams.

[Reggie Miller]

I don't disagree with your main points, but that wasn't what you were getting at earlier. You were basically downplaying Gilbert Arenas' talent by saying the typical 2-guard drafted in the lottery could put up comparable production as Arenas. I disagreed on that point. You're shifting your focus to injuries now, which is a point I would agree with.

And, again, in terms of championship, even most superstars aren't guaranteeing their respective teams championships in the NBA. It's not like the Wizards can spend that $111 on Tim Duncan or Shaq in his prime. They have no way of getting guys like Kobe or LeBron or Wade or Chris Paul or Dwight Howard either. So, they take a superstar talent that they already have Bird Rights to and hope they can build around him with the right pieces. For the Wizards, it's not about championships. They haven't been past the first round of the playoffs in decades (I believe). They're just trying to climb into the discussion of top tier teams.

What you're basically implying is that they start over, start from scratch, let Arenas walk or trade him for expiring contracts and build on a real superstar that can lead actually give them a shot at a championship. You almost imply that it's easy. It's not. It's likely that they'd be no closer and in fact much farther from any championship aspirations had they not re-signed Arenas and may never get closer. There are teams that languish in mediocrity in all pro sports. There are teams that never even get a whiff of conference finals even with very good teams. No, the Wizards aren't going to bring home a championship any time soon. You can say that about 25+ other NBA teams.

Yeah, I got "caught." I was downplaying his talent too much. Even if you turned around a drafted a player of identical ablility, he would not be able to match Gilbert's production for at least a season, probably more like three seasons.

Look at it this way: As a Pacers' fan, I have seen the long-term effects of playing in one of the less attractive markets, making the playoffs every year, and never really accomplishing anything. The results could be summed up as low draft picks and no real chance of signing the top free agents. (As you point out, the nature of NBA economics makes it unlikely for max contract player to jump teams anyway.) Lather, rinse, repeat. It seems to be an unbreakable cycle. I think at some point you just have to tear it all down and start over, even if you are just breaking in a new rut.

As an imaginary GM, I guess it boils down to whether or not you view your franchise more as entertainment or see winning as an end in of itself. (There are many other possible considerations of course. For example, some teams may need to win to avoid being relocated, get a new stadium, etc.) Sterling has proven that you can make plenty of loot in the NBA without being compe ive, but winning generally helps revenues. There's that consideration as well.

You are correct that rebuilding isn't easy. If it was, Atlanta and Milwaukee would be unstoppable. A team has to identify and obtain a suitable "foundation" player, manage their cap, and have any number or breaks fall their way. For example, Milwaukee seems to have seriously overestimated Bogut's talent.

[DPG21920]

Sucks that they let Mason walk, that guy was good.

[ManuTP9]

well well well, its december and arenas isnt back lmao

[T Park]

Yeah its hilarious one of the best shooters in the game is injured and can't play...

[DANILO DRASKOVIC]

Till December of 09?
I wish I got a 100 million dollar contract to side court side of NBA games and write blogs