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So the race isn't tightening or are you ridiculing yourself for thinking it's tightening?
I choose to ridicule those who spend their time with polls and read them like tea leaves.
So the race isn't tightening or are you ridiculing yourself for thinking it's tightening?
K - whatever makes you feel better.
Thanks.
An individual poll by itself is not very useful. You must look at an aggregate of polls taken over a long period of time to really get a good idea of where this race is headed.
I suggest you all head over to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. They have hands down the best polling analysis on the internet or anywhere for that matter. According to their models Obama is headed for a landslide victory.
The path for victory for Obama is much easier than it is for McCain as it stands right now.
I'll wait until MannyisGod endorses fivethirtyeight...I'm not sure you're qualified.
Yoni and jochhejaam have inspired me to do a little cherry picking of my own, but I decided I'd pilfer mine from Old Man Murdoch's orchard:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122332442918808789.html
As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes:
29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities.
In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.
(how's that pitbull gimmick working out, Steve Schmidt?)
There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.
McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.
In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11.
In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/Poll...7-21df796e8fe5
I did so a long time ago. You're too slow.
Or, I was being sarcastic and don't ever really pay attention to your poll nonsense.
I doubt that. You listen to everything I say with great intent.
RCP averages make this look like a landslide waiting to happen, but politico has a few good articles about how racism (and the McCain campaign's increasingly explicit Jesse Helms campaigning) could be the only factor that can save McCain
I think Obama ends up winning this race by around the average he holds now. I expect him to widen that lead between now and the election, but the conservative voter turnout will tip this back closer to neutral. Still a comfortable victory for Obama, IMO.
McCain loses OH/MI, wins election: 1.28%.
That could be it right there. Right now Michigan is starting to lean heavily towards Obama and Ohio is in a dead heat. If McCain loses Ohio, it's over.
Latest Zogby has it as a virtual dead-heat;
Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%
The telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace
UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.
The survey, including a three-day sample of 1,220 likely voters collected over the previous three days - approximately 400 per day from Oct. 5-7, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 1.9 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday.
Three Day Tracking Poll
10-7
10-6
Obama
47.1%
47.7%
McCain
45.2%
45.3%
Others/Not sure
7.7%
7.0%
The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, was conducted before Tuesday's Obama-McCain debate. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,220 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Candidates Doing Well Among Their Own Party Members
The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%.
Obama wins support from a slightly higher percentage of conservative voters than McCain is winning from liberal voters, but the advantage is small.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election, keeping in touch with the daily twists and turns in the race for the White House. The running poll of about 1,200 likely voters consists of three days of polling - about 400 from each of the last three days. With each new day of polling that is folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is replaced with the fresh data, so the poll "tracks" movements and events in the campaigns. Keep up to date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1341
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575
Most objective voters don't put much stock in the CNN poll (widely accepted as a skewed poll), not when they're polling 41% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 32% Independents. Polling 41% Dems? What other result would you expect other than one that shows Obama ahead.
Whatever makes you guys sleep better at night I guess. Yeah, it's a dead heat....
Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?
Really? Your source for that assertion? Do most also ignore Gallup who doesn't weight by party ID at all and simply lets the chips fall where they may and uses far more respondents than Zogby? Also, what are the national party identification breakdowns? What percentage self identify themselves as democrats on a national scale?
I'll tell you what most objective poll analysts do. They look at all the polls, factor in track records, and then try to look at overall trends. And unlike you, I can provide sources for this claim.
Now, this poll is a good one if you're a McCain supporter. If you see a tightening in other polls then that serves as a verifier for this poll. If that doesn't happen, then this is more than likely an outlier.
Good result for McCain, regardless of your baseless comments.
Source?
Please stop linking to the Zogby polls. Especially the Zogby interactive ones. Notoriously unreliable.
I suggest everyone here start going to www.fivethirtyeight.com. Hands down the best polling analysis on the web.
Zogby Polls are fine. ZI polls are utter crap, though.
This day in 2000, Gore was down 8 to Bush in the Gallup poll.
fap fap fap fap fap
Down 11 in the Gallop.
Poll interviews were conducted with 524 adult Americans who watched the debate and were conducted by telephone on September 26. All interviews were done after the end of the debate. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate <more precisely, because more dems than reps were questioned as to who won the debate>. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/27/debate.poll/
No sleep lost here flo. If Obama wins I won't complaining (I work for a Government Agency, you help pay my salary), if McCain wins I won't be celebrating.
Whoever gets in, I hope they do a great job for our Country.
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