Considering you've said McCain is going to win and NY will be close, I don't find this surprising at all.
I mean Rasmussen, the Independent Conservative Pollster, who incidentally was the most accurate pollster in 2004, and also incidentally, heavily weights his polls by party ID...heavily in favor of the Democrats. He also polled Obama high in the Pennsylvania Primaries...by about 5 points.
Rasmussen vs. CNN?
What about the Mason/Dixon poll on Pa.? They only show Obama up by 4.
John McCain's actually won something in Pennsylvania...Obama hasn't. He also hasn't won anything in New York, New Jersey, California, Minnesota or Wisconsin...while McCain has.
Prove it.
I know you guys think one Democrat is just as good as another...but it's simply not the case...the fact that Obama didn't win any of these big states is going to result in less turnout than if the Democrat had won them...as Kerry did in 04.
Google it...type the words most accurate pollster in the 2004 Presidential Election.
It was Survey USA and Rasmussen...
Survey USA was the one that was consistently the closest to the actual margin of victory...but the were wrong on the winner of at least one state.
Rasmussen was the one that perfectly called every single battle ground state, the only one.
They'll both be wrong in this election...
Survery USA because they can be hired by anyone...
Rasmussen because while that weighting typically is a safe bet...it's not in this election due to all the interest in the Democratic Primaries and the mid term elections from a couple of years ago.
Sin,
A registered Democrat.
Of course, Kerry didn't have Murtha calling his own (and Obama's) cons uents racists. Nor did Kerry call them a bunch of religious gun-clingers.
I read, somewhere (and Whott or Manny can probably source this) that the reason polls are all over the place this year is because somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-85% of people called are not responding...leaving 15-20% constructing the polls. Some speculate the 80-85% are mainly conservatives and people Obama has pissed off...who, by the way, will be voting.
Why is McLoser campaigning in mostly red states if he expects to win? Do they need defending?
Why isn't HUSSEIN campaigning in blue states? Maybe they don't need defending?
I'd trust what each campaign is actually doing these last fews days (assumption: they know best, have the most at stake), rather than what pollsters or either campaign staff say for public consumption.
"Much of the last-minute spending by Mr. McCain was in states that just two months ago Republicans believed to be safely in their column. They include Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia."
"Mr. McCain’s and Ms. Palin’s weekend stops have been mainly in states that President Bush won four years ago: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio."
"The latest New York Times electoral map puts five states in the toss-up category, based on polls, interviews with local analysts and campaign officials: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Mr. Bush won all those states in 2004. According to the Times count, another five states that went with Mr. Bush in 2004 — Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia — were leaning toward Mr. Obama going into the weekend."
"Mr. McCain’s aides had, at the start of the month, listed as takeover targets four states that Mr. Kerry won in 2004: Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All four were leaning Democratic going into the last weekend, according to the Times tally. Based on where he is campaigning and spending his money, Mr. McCain has all but given up on Minnesota and Wisconsin."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/us...states.html?hp
Then stay stupid.
That Rasmussen poll has fishy internals:
10/30 (10/27)
Obama: 51 (53)
McCain: 47 (46)
Whites:
Obama: 46 (46)
McCain: 52 (53)
Blacks:
Obama: 80 (93)
McCain: 20 (5)
Pennsylvania has been more BLUE/Dem than the popular national vote every election since 1948.
Think about that for a second. John McCain aint winnin Pennsylvania. By doubling down on Pennsylvania and directing most of his resources there, he can cut into Obama's lead by making inroads with independents and undecideds, but he needs Obama supporters to change their minds, and that will not happen.
Most Accurate Pollster of Election 2004
Final Certified Results Reveal TIPP as the Most Accurate Pollster of Election 2004
An analysis of the presidential election's final certified results shows that TIPP's daily tracking polls proved to be the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner and his margin of victory.
Among the four national daily tracking polls, TIPP came closest to projecting Bush's actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
TIPP also outperformed a field of 11 other national, non-tracking pre-election polls, coming within just four-tenths of a percentage point to predicting Bush’s actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
TIPP predicted the winner of the election in several pre-election venues, including CNBC’s Kudlow and Cramer and in the pages of Investor’s Business Daily.
"We developed strong tracking metrics and voter models that allowed us to accurately predict the election's outcome,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP. "These metrics enabled us to minimize error and capture trends as they developed. We had our finger on the pulse of America throughout all of its palpitations."
I'm sorry what were you saying stick?
Made'ja google.
But I do know one republican is just as bad ass as another one.
The Republican dullards in this thread are just pathetic. It's a sad (but amusing) sight to see how far they've fallen mentally as this election has gone on...spiraling out of control much like McCain's campaign. Look at the mental midget status they've been reduced to...making a thread about a single poll like it matters
Another cherry picked poll that you guys won't like
Well I didn't wanna be called stupid for not using an internet search engine...Made'ja google.
Of course not; just for saying no like an iimpetuous child.
Obama isn't planning any more stops in Pennsylvania but he is spending money on ad buys in North Dakota, Montana and ARIZONA. That should tell you something.
Well when whottt claims something and then refuses to provide any evidence of his claims, I tend to not want to go searching for the truth of the matter. He does it so often that I get tired...
It's going to be fun bumping their delusional, rambling posts on Wednesday.The Republican dullards in this thread are just pathetic. It's a sad (but amusing) sight to see how far they've fallen mentally as this election has gone on...spiraling out of control much like McCain's campaign. Look at the mental midget status they've been reduced to...making a thread about a single poll like it matters
Obama vs. McCain National RCP Averages
Candidate Average
Obama 50.2
McCain 43.8
Spread: Obama +6.4
Disregard Rasmussen PA. If you do the math, cutting AA support by 15% when they are 20% of PA voters, that shaves 3 points off Obama's lead. The poll hasn't moved but Rasmussen needed to promote the GOP narrative.
After Tuesday, one way or the other, some pollsters and pundits will have some explaining to do.
It may be those who conducted surveys showing the presidential race tightening to a virtual dead heat in recent days.
Or it may be those in the larger group whose polls have shown Barack Obama comfortably ahead of John McCain, and whose focus has been on not whether the Democrat will win but by how much.
Charlie Cook, long one of Washington's most venerated political wonks, belongs firmly in the latter category. In his latest column for the National Journal, he opines that McCain "probably can't win without divine intervention." In a tease to his subscription-only newsletter, he writes, "Since early September this race has shifted rather dramatically in Obama's favor. ... At this stage, the most relevant question would seem to be: 'How big will the train wreck be for the Republican Party up and down the ballot in November.' "
But let's give Cook this -- if need be, he's prepared to eat crow, big time.
During a Friday evening appearance on MSNBC, he had this to say about how he would come to grips with a McCain come-from-behind victory: "I'm going to be asking, 'Paper or plastic.' Or, 'Do you want fries with that.' "
Others might similarly need to contemplate a career change.
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