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  1. #26
    uups stups! Cant_Be_Faded's Avatar
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    Another thing that is very very scary, is that all of our progress in Iraq can still be easily reversed, and if we do somehow transfer all the manpower from Iraq to Afghanistan, the vacuum can feasibly lead to a sequence of events that can undo all the progress.

    So basically the presidential candidate in 2016 could be like "I will focus on Iraq, change is coming in our foreign policy" etc etc
    It truly will be a see-saw war without end, with Iran as the fulcrum.

  2. #27
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    A base in India would be nice, and not just for the Afghan War.

    The Khyber Pass must be controlled. We have been attacking Pakistani soil since late 2007 at least, and it is no coincidence that Obama included the word "pakistan" in his answers to the terror front.

    The shocking intelligence assessment shared by Moscow reveals that almost half of the US supplies passing through Pakistan is pilfered by motley groups of Taliban militants, petty traders and plain thieves. The US Army is getting burgled in broad daylight and can't do much about it.
    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...obama+buchanan



    OTOH:

    Way ahead What is to be done? First, we need to realise that the Afghan war is a classic Clausewitzean affair politics by other means. The U.S. has ensured a permanent presence in the strategic highlands of the Pamir mountains. Even the current highly simulated disruption of transit routes for NATO supplies via the Pakistani territory is providing a pretext for the establishment of fresh U.S. military presence in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and in the Caucasus for the first time ever. While the U.S.’ close partnership with the Pakistani military continues intact, the search for new supply routes becomes the perfect backdrop for ruthlessly expanding American influence in the Russian and Chinese (and Iranian) backyards in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
    http://www.thehindu.com/2008/12/25/s...2555130800.htm

    I say we s the ever living out of that entire region, and to with that bull paper tiger pakistani government. If these asshole ragheads did not have nukes, we would have done this years ago.
    AQ Khan, released from house arrest.


    What is interesting is that Russia had reportedly warmed up to helping the US war on terror, with Afghanistan mentioned in particular. This was reported days after Obama's inauguration. I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be something if Russia somehow took a role in this stupid war to rack up the most muslims kills. Would be very bad for the US long term, but good in the short and moderate term. I know, pipe dream.
    Russia is making overtures to both us and to Karzai, who has fallen out of grace with Obama.

    What the US has completely not taken advantage of with their stupid, vapid Afghan strategies thus far is that both Russia and China have a long term interest in a stable Afghanistan.
    It shows.

  3. #28
    W4A1 143 43CK? Nbadan's Avatar
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    Another thing that is very very scary, is that all of our progress in Iraq can still be easily reversed, and if we do somehow transfer all the manpower from Iraq to Afghanistan, the vacuum can feasibly lead to a sequence of events that can undo all the progress.
    All you have to do is look at the success record of 'arming militias for peace' in South and Central America....this isn't going to end good no matter what we do....we'll be back in Iraq in 10 years...but we may be able to resupply our military...

  4. #29
    All Hail the Legatron The Reckoning's Avatar
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    Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

    The future Asian Union?

  5. #30
    All Hail the Legatron The Reckoning's Avatar
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    Pakistan is destined for fragmentation IMO, and the gaza-esque fragment will be that that contains Khyber Pass. Like CBF always says......bring back the bomb.

    CBF is itching for a Terminator 2-esque ending to his (and everybody elses) life

  6. #31
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

    The future Asian Union?
    Could be eventually, but I doubt it. Too many large countries. For now, it's a regional security bloc. Not that it's progressed much beyond talk and a few joint exercises.

  7. #32
    All Hail the Legatron The Reckoning's Avatar
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    after watching a continent, which has been plagued by two world wars and was the birthplace of nationalism, come together to form the Union, i wouldn't be surprised if China, Russia and the rest of Asia assemble as the "Army from the East."

  8. #33
    uups stups! Cant_Be_Faded's Avatar
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    CBF is itching for a Terminator 2-esque ending to his (and everybody elses) life
    Skynet
    fights
    back.

  9. #34
    Keith Jackson mookie2001's Avatar
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    what does the reckoning know hes in 8th grade?

  10. #35
    All Hail the Legatron The Reckoning's Avatar
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    what does the reckoning know hes in 8th grade?
    for a 15 1/2 year old, i know a lot

  11. #36
    Cogito Ergo Sum LnGrrrR's Avatar
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    Do we really use it THAT often as a stationing ground for that many missions? I'd like to see some concrete facts besides just the sentence "it is a crucial base for afghan missions".
    I'm not sure where you could get statistics for that sort of thing. I don't think they publicly share the number of sorties flown annually. I'm only speaking from personal experience, and looking at the logistics of the thing geographically.

  12. #37
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Kyrgyzstan turns up the heat, will vote early on Manas base closure.

  13. #38
    uups stups! Cant_Be_Faded's Avatar
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    'em. Russia is still weak right now because of the oil price, and this is still a relatively low-priority foreign issue when you consider all the other that has gone down since we invaded Afghanistan.

    I *gasp* have faith that we will find a way around this.

  14. #39
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    'em. Russia is still weak right now because of the oil price, and this is still a relatively low-priority foreign issue when you consider all the other that has gone down since we invaded Afghanistan.
    Russia may not be as rich as they were, but I'm not sure I'd call them weak. They're still a nuclear power, and they've got Europe by the short and curlies when it comes to energy.

    Did we lift a finger against them in Georgia last year?

    I *gasp* have faith that we will find a way around this.
    I do too, but I find the twists and turns intriguing. It's the "Great game" angle that interests me.

    I'm not convinced at this point that Afghanistan is even the main objective of our strategy. It's more of a foothold in the neighborhood of the Russia and Iran; a pretext for extending our influence regionally.

  15. #40
    Cogito Ergo Sum LnGrrrR's Avatar
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    Looks like they voted to close Manas... kinda sad. I liked that base and the Kyrgyz people.

    Should be interesting to see where the US goes from here. Oman? Pakistan? India?

  16. #41
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Aaand we're back in, after Kyrgyzstan upped the rent and added a few clauses to the lease.

  17. #42
    Cogito Ergo Sum LnGrrrR's Avatar
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    Aaand we're back in, after Kyrgyzstan upped the rent and added a few clauses to the lease.
    Haha. Money makes the world go round.

    I'm happy about this though, as it's a good jumping-off point, plus the Kyrgyz people seem to be pretty good/nice on average.

  18. #43
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Tuesday emphasized the importance of an air base near the Kyrgyz capital to the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan, underscoring the Obama administration’s hope that the United States might be able to retain access to the facility through the end of the Afghan war.

    The current agreement with the Kyrgyz government, which was signed in 2009, calls for the United States to vacate the Manas transit center by July 2014.




    Kyrgyzstan’s new president, Almazbek Atambayev, has said he intends to enforce that agreement, and Busurmankul Tabaldiev, secretary of the Kyrgyz Defense Council, reiterated that message in a meeting Tuesday evening with Panetta, saying that “there should be no military mission” at the airport after July 2014.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...u9R_story.html

  19. #44
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Russia's foreign minister on Wednesday endorsed a proposal to allow NATO use of a southern Russian air base as a hub for transport of supplies to Afghanistan and suggested it was premature to withdraw troops from the war-torn country.
    Sergei Lavrov said the proposal to lease NATO an air base in the Volga River city of Ulyanovsk for non-lethal NATO supply transits to Afghanistan via Central Asia must get formal government approval but is in Russia's "national interest."


    It would be the first deal allowing U.S.-led coalition forces a logistical base on Russian territory rather than simply a corridor for Afghan supply transports.


    The proposal to use the base for a "combined" air, road and rail traffic to Afghanistan came originally from NATO in May 2011. It requires the Russian cabinet's go-ahead but no date for a meeting on the issue has been set.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...82D16P20120314

  20. #45
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

    The future Asian Union?
    Turkey signs up.

    http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/12367

  21. #46
    All Hail the Legatron The Reckoning's Avatar
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    Turkey getting desperate for some union love. interesting that they can be a part of the SCO and NATO. i could easily see some middle eastern countries following suit, however, there are human rights issues that need to be addressed before anyone can join one of the clubs.to my understanding, that's why in part Turkey wasn't able to be in the EU in the first place.

    But yes there will be a MAJOR conflict of interest here regarding missile defense.

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