Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1

[ElNono]

I disagree with timvp on this one. I think the Mavs has more mismatches than we do, and after watching their games for most of the season, they've lost any kind of defensive iden y they used to have with Avery. This is a team that gives up almost 100 points per game, and plays to outscore you.
That said, let the games begin.

[Blackjack]

Nice preview.

To me, Dallas definitely looks to be in the driver's seat. They're simply playing closer to "Mavs ball" than the Spurs are to playing "Spurs ball", at this point in time

The loss of Ginobili is basically the equivalent to taking away Terry from the Mavs and having a hobbled Howard. Wouldn't be too optimistic about the Mavs chances against the Spurs if that were the case, so I can't honestly say I'm too optimistic with the Spurs' current cir stance.

That said, I give the Spurs a decent shot to pull this series out. (Helps that there's no game 2 scheduling losses like in '06 and '08 with the Mavs and Lakers series, respectfully) While the Mavs are closer to playing their brand of ball than the Spurs are, the Mavs brand isn't at as high as of standard as it's been in the past.

As far as Dirk goes, I'd like to see him taken out of the game as much as possible in the first 3 quarters. Doubles, ball-denial, etc., don't let him get comfortable early. Make him a facillitator for the first 3 quarters and make him make shots, not free-throws, to win the game down the stretch.(I'll take my chances with Dirk having to make jump shots, to aggressive defense, and the ensuing free-throws, any day of the week) At the end of the day, as far as Dirk goes, the Spurs' best defense against him might be their offense. If Duncan and Gooden can get Dirk on their back in the post, they might be able to put him on the bench, or get him to play tenative, due to foul trouble.

The Mavs were obviously built to compete against the Spurs with their mid-range game and ability to attack off the dribble (seems they almost had Milwaukee in mind when building the team) so the matchcup is definitely not an ideal one for the Spurs, but it is doable.

Tony and Tim will have to play at the top of their game, the role-player's will have to step-up and knock down their outside shots to keep the floor spaced, they'll need to control/manage the free-throw line on both ends of the floor, and they've got to rebound, Rebound, REBOUND!

It's going to be difficult at times watching this team's offense in the half-court with the limited slashing, which will be made even more difficult if Tim isn't able to command a double/get the defense leaning, and there's going to be stretches where it looks like the Spurs' defense just isn't up to snuff, but I'm hopeful that this team's heart and grit will find a way to get the job done.

Accept the team for who they are, at this point in time.

Cheer your ass off and give them the support they deserve, for all they've been and done, over the course of time.

And believe they can get it done, one more time.

[duncan228]

Great preview timvp. I'm gathering the national stuff, and, as we already know, you give us a better view of our team than any of them. Thanks for the time and effort, it's appreciated.

[G-Nob]

REPOST...

Why I'm scared...

Most seasons going into the "second season", we've had at least an idea that the spurs could easily dictate a series with their defense. Because the defense has not been consistant this season, it gives me great disgust to say that I don't like the tempo in which this series will be played. This is gonna be an up and down series with multiple games in the 100s for both teams and I dont think we can beat Dallas over seven games with that format.

Tony will be Tony but Bruce must be Bruce. Whether he's playing dirk or terry. His defense will dictate the tempo in the ballgame. If the spurs can somehow slow the game down, they're chances of winning will be much greater.

Mason has to be ginobili. Not with super manu intangibles, but with his offense. He must provide that offensive punch that we got used to seeing earlier in the season or the Spurs will be in danger of going on long dry offensive spells much to their demise in 2008.

Tim has to impose his will as much as his knees will let him. Diop is no longer in the middle, so Tim must destroy Dampier, repeatedly.

We need Gooden to be our Nazr. Rebound and provide a smidge of offense. Drew Gooden is capable of going off. If he does, the Spurs will be in great shape. Also, keeping Brandon Bass in check on the boards will be his number one priority.

Who's running the backup point? Vaughn can not keep up with Barea. I fear this matchup because I know the mavs are at a huge advantage in this area.

The success of this series will also go to the team that can do a better job shutting down the perimeter shooters. Dallas has deadly shooters that can kill you on the run. The Spurs have to step up their Transition D to make sure dallas doesn't score 10 points in 35 seconds as they can. On the flip side, Matt Bonner must find his touch once again. His shooting will be crucial when dallas decides to make a priority out of keeping tony out of the lane. Note to Matt: don't think, just shoot.

Protect the house. Dallas is putrid on the road. The spurs cannot allow dallas to steal one because the AAC, in all its rediculousness, will not be an easy place to pull out a win.

No series prediction here. The spurs will need all hands on deck for this one. Any kind of championship moxy the Spurs have left will be shown in this series. The only question is, will it be enough?

Believe?

[ToughActinTinactin]

I believe the Mavs are going to be unpleasantly surprised by the Spurs. Pop's got this.

[LEONARD]

ROFL @ Leonard trying to post in a bunch of Mavs/Spurs threads like he has any idea what's going on. The dude already said he jumped off the Mavs bandwagon this season

Pulling quotes from when the Mavs were 2-3 this season...

and incomplete quotes at that:

Watched basically every game from around '02 thru last season...burned out on the team, but not going to waste my time creating threads here crying about it. If I do start watching more soon, I still won't sit around here whining...if they're not good they're not good. It's not the end of the world...

and from a thread by you crying about how much the Mavs suck, no less...Mr #1 Mavs Fan...

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=109191

I've watched most of the games since the All-Star break...

and I care a lot because they're playing the Spurs...beating the Spurs is really all I care about, just because of the chaos it would cause on this forum...

[completely deck]

What don't you get? And what does that quote have to do with this thread?

Tell me it was a fake post. I don't understand how with all of the knowledge you have of the Spurs, you could count them out.

[Spurs Brazil]

Great read timvp

For me TD is the big key. If he's health enough to score one on one against Dampier and the other Mavs bigs we'll win

[Whisky Dog]

You can basically throw the 2006 series out the window as these two teams are completely different now. No Devin Harris, Stackhouse, Diop. No Manu, Barry, a lot less Bowen. This series is going to come down to the health of SA vs the ability to perform of the Mavs. If healthy, you know Duncan will rise up as he always has. If healthy. OTOH, the Mavs have a history of sometimes rising up in the playoffs and sometimes laying flat. Which Mavs will show up? How healthy will Duncan be? Will guys like Mason, Bonner, and Gooden step up? A lot of unknowns that will decide the series.

I'm cool with the matchup because the alternatives were Portland or Houston w/o HCA. Both of those would have been nightmare matchups. The Spurs just don't match up well with anyone on paper anymore.

[timvp]

Tell me it was a fake post. I don't understand how with all of the knowledge you have of the Spurs, you could count them out.

It's not a fake post and I'm not counting the Spurs out. I'm giving them up to a 40% chance to win a series without Ginobili and with a hobbled Duncan against a team that was constructed to specifically beat the Spurs. Due to the cir stances, the Spurs have less room for error than the Mavs. I don't think that should be too shocking of a revelation.

[Obstructed_View]

The Mavs are also playing well right now on both sides of the ball, and all their shooters are hot. Add to that the fact that they have huge advantages in depth AND health, it's not a stretch to suggest that the Spurs have their work cut out for them if they want to advance.

[gospursgojas]

3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?

Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

[Obstructed_View]

Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

[Trimble87]

I know its said a lot... but TIMVP you and Duncan228 are what make these forums worth reading. Fantastic break-down of the series. Love being able to discuss the series and games without falling into the "Im a spurs fan we're gonna pwn yous!!!111" steroetype that so many basketball fans sec to.

I 100% agree with the analysis and think it will all come down to Duncan playing well and a few bounces going our way.

Looking forward to part 2.

[Kori Ellis]

Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

That didn't go well for the Suns when they tried leveling him with Shaq.

[temujin]

Worst possible matchup, other than the Lakers, against the only other team with experience of serious games.

I'll buy Timvp' arguments 1-3, not 4 and 5: you need rotation and rebounds against any teams. I think the Spurs can execute and get that.

Having watched as many Mavs games as Spurs, I'd add three points.

1) Key for the mavs will be Terry. Him, more than Novitski is the barometer of how they play.
2) I don't see any mavs able to guard Gooden. Whether they play two bigs or decide to go small. Expecially if Gooden plays along Duncan. I have seen glimples over, the last games, of the Cavs player that impressed me most in 07 finals. I would't be surprised to see a lot of him in action.
3) There is an obvious matchup that goes against Dallas.
Popovich-Carlisle.
Carlisle is flat and has shown very little leadership. I would rate him next to karl as the worst coach of the lot.

Finally, the real and only reason why this series will be long and Mavs can seriously win.

Mr. Emanuel Ginobili out.

[Kori Ellis]

Even with Manu playing, this would have been a difficult series for the Spurs because of Dirk. Since no one matches up well with him on the roster, Pop goes small far too often, and then the Spurs get destroyed on the glass. That wouldn't have really changed with Manu -- the series would still be long and hard-fought.

Instead of the Spurs always adjusting and going small, forcing a perimeter player to guard Dirk, I'd love to see them hold more ground and stick to their gameplan. Let Carlisle be the one doing the adjusting, instead of the Spurs adjusting to the Mavs.

If someone among the bigs can, at the very least, not get destroyed by Dirk, I would avoiding going small for long stretches.

[Obstructed_View]

That didn't go well for the Suns when they tried leveling him with Shaq.

It worked really well in 2006 when Ron Artest did it. If you remember, Parker was only in the game because the Spurs didn't have a backup for him...

[temujin]

Make no mistake: Duncan will be there, even on one leg.
Spurs can still loose, though.

[Brazil]

I've already said that but I don't like the playing mavs idea neither. But you know what there's nothing we can do, so let's see the good side of the thing. IMO we have at least 10 good reasons to believe.
1) We have the HCA
2) We don't need to travel a lot
3) The schedule is reasonnable and there will be time to rest between the game
4) We will play w/o any pression a defeat would be logic also, the stress is on the mavs
5) Tim seems to be in shape for the POs
6) We already played 40 games w/o Manu
7) Pop is stuborn and all but he bring his team to the SW le for a good 58-24 w/o Manu. He is still one of the greatest coach of the league.
8) Tony Parker
9) We have all the weapons we need in the clutch moments see mase, tp, finley
10) Gooden

[Kori Ellis]

It worked really well in 2006 when Ron Artest did it. If you remember, Parker was only in the game because the Spurs didn't have a backup for him...

Parker was injured in the 2006 playoffs. He got hurt in the Sac series and then again in the beginning of the Mavs series. His thighs/calves were wrecked. One of the games against the Mavs, he was even scratched the night before the game but decided to make a go of it the next morning. But Parker is 10 times the player he was 3 years ago. I don't doubt Tony Parker in this series.

[BUMP]

Parker was injured in the 2006 playoffs. He got hurt in the Sac series and then again in the beginning of the Mavs series. His thighs/calves were wrecked. One of the games against the Mavs, he was even scratched the night before the game but decided to make a go of it the next morning. But Parker is 10 times the player he was 3 years ago. I don't doubt Tony Parker in this series.

are you serious?

i never heard anything about that. which game was it?

[td4mvp21]

I really think Pop should forgo small ball and give extended minutes to a Duncan-Gooden frontcourt. I think Gooden is at least quick enough not to get burned (I may be wrong) by Dirk and give up a layup. I don't think he is going to be a Dirk stopper or anything, I don't even think he's that good of a defender, but I think its the best big option we have at this point. Also, that would make Dirk accountable on defense if Pop would go to Gooden in the post. Dirk wouldn't just be sitting in the corner on Bowen.

[temujin]

Novitski had some awful, awful games this year and he does look slower, on average.
This is not 2006 Novitski anymore.
He has looked really bad on defense, lateral mobility and slow rotations, in general.
I'd go with two bigs most of the times, and play Thomas and Gooden way more than Bonner.

The other weak point of Dallas I noticed is they really don't like to run. Even when they play small ball, which they do less often that 06 and 07.
Anytime I have seen them accept a run-n-gun stretch, they get out of their game very quickly. You start to see the oldies's age.
Probably that's why they were so afraid of Denver.

Unfortunately the Spurs are not the ideal team to exploit that.

[Kori Ellis]

are you serious?

i never heard anything about that. which game was it?

I don't remember which game exactly. He had got hurt at the end of the Sac series and again in Game 1 or 2 or the Mavs series. He had huge thigh pads due to contusions, plus had a calf injury. I think it was Game 2 that he was almost scratched, but I honestly don't remember. I just remember us discussing it among the press before the tip. Apparently he could barely walk the night before, but the training staff got him ready to go.