With the series tied at 1-1, the San Antonio Spurs head to Dallas to try to win at least one game against the Mavericks. Faced with this same exact situation in 2006, the Spurs failed to win either game at the American Airlines Center and returned to the Alamo City trailing 3-1 in the series.
If the Spurs are going to win one of the next two contests, Game 3 would be the game. They are coming off of a blowout win, they've had two days to rest and the Mavs may be distracted a bit by all the drama that has occurred since Game 2. If the Mavs can win Game 3, I'd say their chances of winning Game 4 would be high considering the shorter turnaround and the higher confidence level.
I'm not going to guarantee that the winner of Game 3 will win the series, however that really does look like it will be the case. How can the Spurs put Game 3 in their win column? Here are five important subplots to keep an eye on:
1. San Antonio matching the energy
In Game 2, Dallas played flat. They had a few good bursts but they couldn't sustain emotional momentum. That will absolutely not be a problem with the Mavs playing at home. They feed off their fans and the crowd is always extra amped up when the Spurs roll into town.
Quietly, the Mavs were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season. After losing their first four home games, they won 32 of their final 37 contests at home. Since Christmas, they've only lost only three times at home. Those losses came by a combined 16 points against the Hornets, Celtics and Nuggets.
In recent home wins against the Jazz and the Suns, the Mavs illustrated their explosive tendencies as they scored 140 points and 130 points in those outings, respectively. If the Spurs don't come prepared to face a much better version of Mavs, they will be in for a long night.
San Antonio needs to survive the initial emotional spurt by the Mavs and then start chipping away.
2. The Mavs and the free throw line
In the last Game 3 versus Dallas, the Mavs went to the free throw line 50 times. The Spurs cannot let the contest turn into a free throw shooting drill because the Mavs are deadly at the charity stripe. After Erick Dampier's comment, this game is very likely to be called tightly.
No matter the cir stances, the Spurs have to force the Mavs to win or lose from the field. This is especially true regarding Dirk Nowitzki. Giving him space to shoot is a much better idea than giving him freebies. He lived on the line for a lot of the 2006 series, especially in the three games play at Dallas.
The goal should be to not allow more than 20 free throws and to keep Nowitzki's free throw attempts in single-digits.
3. The rising of a third scorer
Each team has their defense geared to stop two scorers. The Mavs are focusing on Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, while the Spurs have their defense locked in on Nowitzki and Jason Terry. The team that has a third scorer rise to the occasion will have a substantial advantage in this game.
The obvious answer for the Mavs would be Josh Howard. The Spurs aren't showing him a large amount of respect but they should be careful because he plays much better at home than on the road. At home, Howard averaged 19.5 points on 47.6% shooting. On the road, his averages dipped to 16.6 points on 42.6% shooting.
For the Spurs, this is obviously where they miss Manu Ginobili and where they will need a player like Michael Finley, Roger Mason, Jr. or Drew Gooden to pick up the slack. Parker and Duncan can carry a lot of the load but they need a few other scorers to step up and join the ride.
4. The Spurs' ability to control the defensive glass
Rebounding was arguably the most important improvement made between Game 1 and Game 2 by the Spurs. A very good defensive rebounding team in the regular season, the Spurs allowed the Mavs to feast on the offensive boards in the opening contest of the series. But in Game 2, the Spurs were dominant on the defensive glass -- grabbing an astonishingly high 87.5% of the available defensive rebounds.
San Antonio doesn't need to be quite as dominant but they need to stay north of the 75% mark. On a whole, if the Spurs can out-rebound the Mavs, they should be in good shape. It's tough for the Spurs to rebound against Dallas because their defense is constantly in rotation and the Mavs have the more athletic players, but the Spurs proved in Game 2 that it's possible for them to hang.
5. The level of Tony Parker's play
Parker played fantastic basketball in Game 2. He erupted in the first quarter and then relentlessly attacked until the Spurs were victorious.
What do the Spurs need for an encore? The same type play. I seriously don't think it's possible for the Spurs to win a game in this series if Parker doesn't score at least 30 points. He has to keep playing like a superstar for the Spurs to advance to the second round. Unless the Spurs get a spectacular shooting performance by their role players, they just can't generate enough offense outside of Parker for him to play at a pedestrian level and the Spurs still win.
Parker doesn't have to play out of his mind like he did in Game 2 but the Spurs need him to score more than 30 points and dish off more than seven assists. No pressure.
Believe.
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