Lakers vs. Magic Series Previews

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SI.com's NBA Finals Picks

Ian Thomsen
Lakers: 4-2

I worry that I may never learn from mistakes, having picked against Orlando the previous round. But the Lakers have more firepower around Kobe Bryant than the Cavaliers had around LeBron James; more versatility, including a stronger post presence in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum; and in Bynum a young defender big enough to bother Dwight Howard in his set-ups around the basket. On the other hand, the Magic have a legit shooter's chance of winning -- more so than most Finals underdogs in previous years -- and they could yet make fools of me and others again.


Jack McCallum
Lakers: 4-2

The Magic will not go quietly. But go Orlando will. With a combination of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom (not to mention a hacking cameo by D.J. Mbenga), there will be enough fouls to send Dwight Howard to the line instead of letting him dunk with impunity. And there are enough aggressive perimeter defenders with Kobe, Derek Fisher, Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown to limit -- not stop but limit -- the three-point game that the Magic used to beat Cleveland.


Chris Mannix
Lakers: 4-2

Lamar Odom on Rashard Lewis. Trevor Ariza on Hedo Turkoglu. Kobe on anyone. The Lakers may be potent on offense, but the reason they will raise their 15th championship banner is defense. Lewis and Turkoglu were able to exploit the traditional lineups of Boston and Cleveland in earlier rounds, but the Lakers have the personnel to play a non-traditional style. Shots will be contested, gaps will quickly close. The rangy Ariza has the length to defend either Lewis or Turkoglu, and in the fourth quarter Phil Jackson has the option of siccing Bryant on either of them. The Magic will still have one dominant game -- their perimeter skills and the Lakers' tendency to lose focus will see to that -- but L.A. will have more of them.


Chris Ballard
Lakers: 4-2

Years from now, people will look back and peg this series as the beginning of the Sasha Vujacic era in the NBA. No, who are we kidding? It's going to be all Kobe, all the time in these Finals. Some will consider it boring, but then some railed against Jordan during his elite years as well. Early in the series, Bryant will continue in the facilitator role that made him (and the Lakers) so effective in Games 5 and 6 against the Nuggets. When the Magic adjust and single-cover him, he'll turn back into a scorer. Dwight Howard will put up big numbers but find the middle more congested than against Cleveland.


Steve Aschburner
Lakers: 4-2

Three reasons why the Lakers will beat the Magic: 1) The experience of having been there last June means something, especially against an opponent that has exceeded its ambitions and hasn't played at these heights before; 2) Kobe Bryant, no matter what he says, is driven just a little extra by the prospect of pulling even with Shaquille O'Neal with four championships (though it won't shut Shaq up -- nothing ever does that -- and I say "even" because Bryant's teammates collectively make up for none of them being quite the equal of O'Neal sidekick Dwyane Wade in 2006); and 3) the Lakers are more talented, equally deep and fully awake now after dilly-dallying earlier in the playoffs. Orlando has climbed the ladder in compe ion from Philadelphia without Elton Brand to Boston without Kevin Garnett to Cleveland without much help for LeBron to a fully functioning, fully engaged Lakers squad. That's a rung too far.


Scott Howard-Cooper
Lakers: 4-2

This is not nearly the consolation-prize matchup most suggest. The Magic have Dwight Howard as the best center in the game, which just happens to be a major Lakers question mark with the enigmatic Andrew Bynum. An L.A. concern ordinarily is now bigger than ever. Play Pau Gasol there instead and Howard powers through Gasol. But the Lakers are in good shape defending the perimeter. Lamar Odom is long and can chase. Kobe and Trevor Ariza, the two best Lakers defenders, are both wings. Combined, that's enough to nullify much of what has gone right for Orlando. The Western Conference champions have a much better chance to hit the Magic from varied points -- Bryant, Gasol, Odom. Too much offense, too much defense for the Lakers.


Arash Markazi
Lakers: 4-2

Forget about the Magic's 2-0 record against the Lakers in the regular season; the last time they played each other, George W. Bush was still in office and Jameer Nelson was fully healthy. These are different teams now. I don't see the Magic's success against Boston and Cleveland carrying over against Los Angeles, which actually has low-post scorers in Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum (if he wakes up) who will challenge Dwight Howard on both ends of the floor. The Lakers also have wing defenders such as Trevor Ariza, who won't let Hedo Turkoglu and other Magic players get so many open shots from the perimeter. The difference in stopping LeBron and the Cavaliers as opposed to Kobe and the Lakers is that Bryant has showed in these playoffs that, unlike James, he doesn't need to score 40 points or post a triple-double for the Lakers to win. When Bryant passes to Gasol, Odom or Ariza, they can score and aren't necessarily looking to pass it back to their star player as Cleveland was.

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Roundtable: NBA Finals pressure, intriguing subplots, more le talk

SI.com NBA writers analyze the storylines and matchups in this year's Finals.

1. Considering the Lakers and Magic both face some big potential free-agent losses, which team needs to take advantage of this le opportunity more?

Ian Thomsen: The pressure is entirely on the Lakers, not so much because of next year as last year. Since their clinching Game 6 blowout at Boston, they've been focused on making amends, and memories of that experience will be a positive force. By now it should be clear that Kobe Bryant thrives on this kind of pressure.

Jack McCallum: In the era of free agency, you have to be a moron to think, Oh, well, opportunity will come knocking again if we don't win it this year. Both teams realize they must win this year. But since you demanded one answer, I'm going to say the Lakers. Most of the pressure is on them. Kobe is getting impatient (notwithstanding my answer to the next question), and L.A. could conceivably implode with the current roster, even if free agency does not wreck it.

Steve Aschburner: Sorry, I can't really get too worked up about the Lakers' pivotal free-agent decisions and how that translates into some urgency to win now. That franchise has basked in winning and, Lamar Odom vs. Trevor Ariza signing debates notwithstanding, it will continue to thrive given the expectations of its fan base and the advantages it has as one of the league's glamour destinations. Bryant's good for several more seasons and, thus, I don't see the Lakers falling into the sort of funk that envelopes the Knicks or sidetracked the Celtics. And if they did, you know what? It'd be their turn. I do think markets such as Orlando need to strike when they get this close. Losing Hedo Turkoglu could convulse that team and, while Dwight Howard is saying all the right things now, the league's most covetous eyes always will be upon him. Kevin Garnett said all the right things and stayed a dozen years in Minnesota, but he got his ring in Boston and the Timberwolves still are waiting.

Scott Howard-Cooper: Strictly on the topic of urgency because of potential free-agent issues, the Lakers. Their star is 30, the Magic's star is 23, and there is no getting around that. Bryant's clock is spinning faster than Howard's. That need to win now is more pressing, before the summer of roster uncertainty. That said, the Lakers would be able to absorb the loss of Odom or Ariza better than the Magic with Turkoglu. Odom and Ariza haven't been permanent starters, while Turkoglu is a critical piece of Orlando's success. And L.A. probably won't lose Odom and Ariza. One or the other, maybe, or even probably. But not both. That's an important consideration in noting free agency will not ruin them.

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2. Which superstar is a better fit with his supporting cast: Dwight Howard or Kobe Bryant?

Ian Thomsen: Right now, I'd say Howard. Orlando's roster of shooters was signed entirely to complement its young big man and create space for him in the paint. But it's more than possible that a different answer will become obvious should the Lakers' deep rotation of long, skilled players make quick work of the series.

Jack McCallum: I suppose the predictable answer here is Howard, an easygoing, popular youngster who doesn't offend anyone. But by "fit" in the Finals sense, we're not talking about someone you want to go to the movies with -- we're talking about someone you want to go to war with. Clearly, that is Bryant, who has won three championships and played in 21 championship series games, three more and 21 more, respectively, than Howard.

Steve Aschburner: Howard fits better with the other Magic players because it truly is a symbiotic relationship. They make him better by creating space, he makes them better by pulling defenders in for cleaner perimeter shots. Defensively, they benefit from him by funneling their opponents toward the league's best shot-blocker. Take Howard off that team and it would be like pulling a string on a fine sweater. The Lakers would sag mightily without Bryant, but they wouldn't unravel quite the same. They need and allow him to play great, but they haven't built an unusual style around him to the extent that Orlando has with Howard.

Scott Howard-Cooper: Kobe, because the Lakers don't need a hot streak to win a championship the way the Magic will need one with Rashard Lewis, Turkoglu and Courtney Lee hitting from the perimeter. L.A. is much more dependable at being able to beat teams inside and out. Orlando is more of a risk as a jump-shooting team. Magic general manager Otis Smith has done well executing a plan of surrounding Howard with perimeter threats, but jump-shooting teams can go cold.

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3. What's the most intriguing subplot of the series?

Ian Thomsen: Can Kobe win without Shaq? After all, he's going up against Shaq's heir both in Orlando as well as among NBA centers overall. A win here makes Kobe a champion in different eras, which would be an amazing achievement.

Jack McCallum: The coaches. Remember that one of Phil Jackson's primary tormentors a decade ago was Jeff Van Gundy, brother of Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, and the guy who sarcastically nicknamed the Lakers' coach "Big Chief Triangle." I have no doubt that SVG has enormous respect for Jackson's coaching abilities, but he is as feisty as his brother, and, at some key moment in the series, the old Jackson-VG rivalry is bound to surface.

Steve Aschburner: An important subplot is how Howard and Bryant muzzle themselves to avoid putting themselves into (or getting suckered into) real trouble with their mounting technical fouls. If one of them were to reach the playoff max of seven (each has five entering the series) and have to sit out the next Finals game, it would be fascinating to see if the refs working that night somehow judged the other superstar to have lipped off sufficiently, too. That way, they could miss the same game, theoretically handicapping each team equally. Other than that, the subplot that interests me most is seeing the Lakers earn the le, should they win it. Since I rate them the better team and picked them to win, I root for the drama of seeing them fall behind in the series so we can see them sweat and rise to a challenge. And if that is the Lakers team Orlando manages to beat for the championship, this would be a classic Finals.

Scott Howard-Cooper: I didn't originally think so, and didn't put a spotlight on him when writing about Finals storylines a few days ago, but I find it hard to get away from the Van Gundy angle. For starters, Stan Van Gundy will be visible just for being so emotional as Magic coach, letting the mood take him rather than worrying about manufacturing the proper answer or appearance. And subplots involving him? They are numerous. How Howard is utilized (an issue thanks to Howard); how Orlando defends Kobe (after the knife-juggling of giving LeBron James single coverage the previous round); how long it will take Shaq to pile on Van Gundy with an "I told you so" if the Magic lose; how TV analyst Jeff Van Gundy will critique coach Stan Van Gundy; how the Magic will handle the emotions in their first collective trip to the Finals; how SVG will do against the ultimate modern-day closer on the sideline, Phil Jackson. That's a lot of intrigue, some that will be fun, some that will help define a career.

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4. What matchup is the key to the series?

Ian Thomsen: Will Howard so dominate the paint as to demand double teams that create killer threes for his teammates? Or will Andrew Bynum overcome his shaky playoffs to match up physically for extended minutes and neutralize (to some extent) the league's dominant center? The results of this matchup could make the difference between a straightforward Lakers win and an extended toss-up series.

Jack McCallum: The one at power forward between the Lakers' Gasol and the Magic's Rashard Lewis. Well, I guess Lewis is a power forward even though he spends much of his time on the perimeter. And that's the point: If he can draw Gasol out and hit consistently from long range, the Magic can win the series. But if the series becomes an interior struggle, and Gasol is on his game -- which is what I think will happen -- it's advantage, Lakers.

Steve Aschburner: Mickael Pietrus' ability to pester and force Bryant into his second or third choices with the ball -- while staying on the court long enough, out of foul trouble, to matter, is the pivotal matchup. We've seen so many alleged "Kobe stoppers" come and go through the years -- guys who had some effectiveness, but mostly guys who talked it more than walked it -- that it's a natural point to watch. And Pietrus, foremost among the Magic, had promising success in the East finals against LeBron, as terrific a tune-up as one can get for Bryant.

Scott Howard-Cooper: Bynum vs. Howard. If Bynum does anything on Howard, so much as slows him down, the Lakers have gained a huge edge. But if Bynum becomes Howard's piñata, the Lakers have to send more help and the Magic shooters get more open looks. And on offense, Bynum has to be at least credible in hopes of sticking some fouls to Howard. Gasol would have a much better chance of that, of course, but the thinner Gasol on Howard at the other end is a bad look for L.A. The difference between Bynum showing up and loitering is greater than ever to the Lakers' hopes.