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  1. #26
    Pimp Marcus Bryant's Avatar
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    Something like that. Where's the growth going to come from? Europe? Asia? The US has been driving this train for a long time, and in the end had to borrow like mad to sustain it all.

  2. #27
    Veteran EVAY's Avatar
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    How about the S&P? Not exactly close to the comforting historical average.

    As for trailing v forward earnings, in this environment I'd go with what has happened versus what management or the sales side has to say.

    Or, we're expecting people to buy stuff when they're out of work, lost their house or had their mortgage payment reset, exhausted their savings, tapped out their credit, etc...Sure, labor has been cut to the bone and is on the cheap in many areas. And that's supposed to result in earnings growth?
    Actually, it does result in earnings growth, because the revenues that DO come in are not eaten up in costs as rapidly. Labor and inventory costs are both way down.

    The problem with going with 'what has happened' for a p/e ratio is that the trailing ratios are only based on the last 12 months, when they were so massively impacted by the dislocation of the recession. The earnings were almost non-existent, ( because the costs had not yet been shed but the revenues dried up over night) so the p/e's were higher than they will be going forward.

    Future p/e's are not always a function of the marketing folks. They often reflect management's expectations that x amount of goods will be consumed, and if x is realistic (and I don't think many in management these days are wanting to disappoint the street, so I am expecting those projections to be extremely cautious and conservative),then management can project a pretty reasonable earnings growth because they have cut their costs. If they haven't, then they are out of business.

    My references to trailing p/e is not for the historical average over the last 50 - 60 years. It is for the last 12 months.

  3. #28
    Pimp Marcus Bryant's Avatar
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    Yet those revenues are tied to a significant degree to consumer spending, or business spending based on future consumer spending (both significantly debt financed over the years). You trim your fixed and variable cost, but it's not like there's not downward pressure on pricing to get $ in the door. I wouldn't count on margin improvement and trimming the fat to provide that growth.

  4. #29
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  5. #30
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  6. #31
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