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Which, of course, they can't, and won't be able to, do.:
I'm in the group that wants to contain Kidd and exploit him. To me he is the head of the snake. Slow him down and don't cheat an D against and let him camp out at the 3 pt line. He needs a body on him at all times. He needs to be defended like the Spurs defended Nash in the POs. No room to breath much less get their running game untracked.
Which, of course, they can't, and won't be able to, do.
Wear a cup around peanut head...
About exploiting Kidd: Is it just me or did Parker look SLOW yesterday? He sure didnt look like the allstar he was last year...
I think Pop's approach to last night's game took the air out of BOTH teams. I didn't expect Tony to give it his all, so his performance last night isn't really indicative of his current level of play.
I hope last night was Mason's last chance to prove he belongs in a series against Dallas. Case closed and whittle the players down by one more.
I think Butler is proving to be more of a problem than Marion, but that might have been the RJ effect on Marion last night.
OTOH, when Bogans played against Butler, the guy was not getting his way. Keith is big enough to keep him from backing him down or bullying by him. I am hoping Pop saw that too because he switched Keith off Butler after a few instances of that defense. About the time when the Spurs announcer noticed this. Save it for the play offs?
I think the OP underrated Kidd's defense. He still manages to bother the shot, get a hand up, or more importantly steal the ball in passing. Good hands and BB IQ == decent defender. Is he slow enough for Tony and Hill to burn him? Absolutely, but you can't sleep on him. He can defend.
I agree. I'm not worried about Tony.
The Spurs have shockingly done a pretty good job on Nowitzki this season, holding him to 40% shooting on the year. They've also done pretty well on the glass, a major soft spot that has killed the Spurs against the Mavs for years. To me this series hinges on what Tony Parker can bring and whether he'll be able to exploit Kidd.
This series is going to come down to matchups, and there will be a lot of adjustments as the series progresses. But Pop excels at this. If we can contain Dirk (we can't stop him, but we can make him work and make him take bad shots) and keep controlling the pace so the Mavs don't allow any of their role players to get hot shooting, we can win this series. Transition d will be key, and this is where the Spurs have really picked it up the past 2-3 months.
Keys?
Cash; the girl's for hire . . .
#1 Key: No Small Ball
meh, Hill isnt much of a concern. I can understand Parker though.
Sure, go ahead and Crowd Kidd. Leaved Dirk and Caron wide open or One on One. You'll regret it. This series will be short lived and you'll then have to settle for Missions and Silver Star games. Ta Ta
Start: Hill, Manu, RJ, Dice, Duncan
Bring off the bench: Tony, Bonner, Blair.
Hill on Kidd, Manu on Marion, RJ on Butler, Dice on Dirk, Tim on Brendan
Have two of the big three at all times and Two of Hill, Tony and Manu at all times too. No small ball.
Go with the hot hand: Don't bench a player that is having a good stretch just to stick with your pre-determined rotation.
Don't put a wing on Dirk like we always do, you know that 90% of the time Dirk is going to take a jumper, make him take it over a taller guy.
Grab the defensive rebounds. Make the open threes.
score the most points
Your post lost some credibility when you stated that Jason Kidd is a bad defender. You havent watched many Mavs games this year have you?
How we defend Dirk will be very important.
fact 1: according to 82games, Dirk shoots 85% jumpers at .47%...that is good for a jump shooter, but the Spurs should be able to win with him doing that, rather than shooting the 57% he gets close, plus getting to the line.
Don't foul. Don't put guys on him that allow him to drive too much.
Fact 2: Dallas has some good shooters who should not be left alone to double dirk too much.
example a: Kidd shoots most of his points from jump shots too, but hits at 57% (adjusted for 3's. ) That leads the team. He is the most dangerous shooter on the team, and his jump shot is more accurate than his close shot. Crowd him and make him drive.
example b: marion gets almost half of his points driving to the basket, and is MUCH more accurate doing so (46% shots close, 57% made) compared to his jump shot (43% jump shots at 38% accuracy). Give marion tons of room so that he can't drive, and if you lay off him, crowd the lane so he can't roll to the basket. That is basically his whole game.
Butler: good jump shooter, about equal to dirk at 47%, shooting about 85% jump shots. who mostly does that. He can't make a close shot. Crowd him.
Terry: excellent jump shooter at almost 49%, shoots 85% of his shots as jump shots. When he does drive, makes them at a high percentage.
Beaubois: very dangerous shooter and driver, but minor player who typically scores only 7pts a game. Question: will they go to him if we play off of him?
Haywood: terrible jump shooter. Dangerous rebounder and post player.
Damp: well rounded offensively but they don't give him the ball much.
Conclusion: Dallas has the jump shooting to kill us if we swarm dirk and leave open other shooters. I think we are better off really trying to live with Dirk at least half of the time, and switch up the defense in the 4th.
Manu is going crazy this series. I just know it. I expect 25/6/5 from him.
CG is correct. Rebounding and 3 PT shooting is going to be crucial. Win the boards and shoot well from 3, and you will have a good chance to win.
I think Hill and RJ will play a big role if the Spurs are to win. As I have said before, those are two guys that give the Spurs a dimension they have not had against the Mavs in recent years. That could pay huge dividends if they play well.
3PT shooting is important because both teams have big men that can pass and both teams have excellent 3 point shooters. I wonder if the Spurs are going to try and guard Dirk straight up one on one for the most part or swarm him? I wonder if the Mavs will double Duncan? Doubling Duncan or Dirk does not sound like a smart idea because of their ability to pass and the ability of both teams to hit 3's.
I for one think Kidd will guard RJ. I can see Caron on Manu, Marion on Parker and Kidd on RJ. At least that makes some sense to me.
Haywood and Damp are a lot to throw at Tim. The Mavs are a great rebounding team and if the Spurs don't rebound, they will have no chance to win.
Eh I think this is overanalysis at its best.
The Spurs need consistency from their big three and meaningful contributions from their bench to win. Containment defense on Dirk would be nice too. He can score 25 a game but don't let him go off for 45 a game.
I bet if those things happen the Spurs win no matter how many they score on Jason Kidd or how many Marion scores.
BTW, 3 point shooting is always important for the Spurs. They virtually always lose when they shoot poorly from 3. This team has for quite some time lived and died by that facet of the game.
Anyone in Dallas takes Butler over Howard. Howard was the better scorer / isoplayer but Butler is a better package. Way more bb iq and passing skills.
And thats the thing with defending Dirk, the ball movement of Dallas was almost perfect the last games (before yesterday). Double Dirk and he will pass out and Butler/Kidd/Terry gonna find the man for the open three or Dampwood/Marion under the basket. Dont double Dirk and you give him the jumper in his comfort zone. Thats not 2007 anymore where 2-3 players jumped on Dirk and Howard and Harris had no idea what to do with the ball...
Kidd is not a bad defender. He is one of the smartest help defenders, great stealer and versatile and strong that you can put him against 6-7 SF and he doesnt get burned and you can put Marion on smaller guys etc. He just cant defend the grasshopper pgs anymore but he also doesnt play them 1:1 anymore.
One key for the Spurs is if Parker and Hill can go full speed 4 quarters. I expect that RC gonna make them run with Terry/Roddy/Barea.
I agree with most of this except the part in bold. The Spurs are 3rd in rebounding differential, the Mavs are 24th. Since the trade, I'm fairly certain they're not much better a rebounding team than they were before.
I'm more worried about Hill not being able to move laterally well enough to adequately defend Terry and Barea. If he can't do that, the Spurs really don't have anyone else who can, save for maybe Parker who, with far less offensive responsibility than last year, should be able to do a decent job in this regard. Mason has no chance at guarding anyone in this series, unless Stevenson makes a cameo. Butler and Kidd will bully him in the post and Terry, Barea and (if he plays) Beaubois will run circles around him.
I'm concerned with Pop foolishly doubling Nowitzki, which he shouldn't do. If this guy can score 30+ and beat the Spurs playing one on one, fine. But don't give up the usual barrage of open looks the Spurs do against the Mavs. This is how they've lost in the past. If they do double (and they will, because Pop is predictable and has a defeatist at ude), they can't help off of Terry and Kidd at all costs.
If I recall, it's the transition D that has to be sharp against Dallas. Dirk and Terry go on their quick-shot act in the broken floor, that's how they get those 10-0 runs. So who guard Dirk?
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