Peter Schiff "Runaway Inflation is the biggest threat" "Greek style Crisis is coming"

[Winehole23]

In the short term deflation would seem the greater danger IMO. Without re-stimulus (or even worse; war with Iran, say?) high unemployment will continue to be a drag on US growth.

All talk of inflation is proleptic, IMO. There's a lot of bad things that could happen to us before a debased currency bites us all on the ass, as it eventually must.

[Winehole23]

That's why the only answer, as painful and ugly as it may seem, is free markets. The invisible hand. When will people understand that capitalism = freedom. We keep fighting this concept, over and over. Why ?

Freedom to take a in the Gulf of Mexico without serious financial consequences, for example?

[SnakeBoy]

In the short term deflation would seem the greater danger IMO. Without re-stimulus (or even worse; war with Iran, say?) high unemployment will continue to be a drag on US growth.

All talk of inflation is proleptic, IMO. There's a lot of bad things that could happen to us before a debased currency bites us all on the ass, as it eventually must.

I agree that deflation is the short term danger but I'm looking longer term. I didn't know you were on board the stimulus train WH. I think high unemployment continues to be a drag on the economy with or without re-stimulus. Re-stimulus may kick the deflation can down the road a little bit but will only make things worse when it's time to pay the piper.

[RandomGuy]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=156597

The [Elliott wave theory magazine] issue published in early May said flatly: "The topping process is over for the countertrend rally that started in the first quarter of 2009. The next leg lower that commenced in April should now deliver a decline that will ultimately be bigger than the 2007-2009 sell-off. ... Gold poked to a new high, but in doing so, likely completed a pattern in mid-May that will lead to a multi-month selloff. ... The U.S. dollar index (NYBOT: DX-Y.NYB - News) is fulfilling EWFF's forecast for a strong advance."

All of which fits right into Prechter's repeated predictions of a massive coming deflation.

In a rare comment on individual stocks, EWFF says: "Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG - News) made its countertrend rally on Jan. 4, four months before the DJIA and Nasdaq, and appears to be locked in a decline the EWFF also forecast last August. Its early reversal is a bearish development for the broad market, as Google is an icon of the last great stock craze. The failure of its stock price to reignite is a clear sign that the animal spirits of the old bull market are all but gone."

Hyper-inflation or massive deflation?

Who to believe?

Best bet: probably neither extreme.

I would bet towards a chunk of deflation, just because it would make the cost of gold plummet, and I would find that extremely funny.

[Winehole23]

I agree that deflation is the short term danger but I'm looking longer term. I didn't know you were on board the stimulus train WH.

I was only pointing a possible downside of discontinuing unemployment bennies. That doesn't make me a supporter.

I think high unemployment continues to be a drag on the economy with or without re-stimulus. Re-stimulus may kick the deflation can down the road a little bit but will only make things worse when it's time to pay the piper.

Could be. I don't see stimulus as such a big deal compared to other things.

[Winehole23]

Any (recent or politically possible) stimulus would be dwarfed by by the costs of war, debt and bailout.

[CosmicCowboy]

Blast from the past

[RandomGuy]

Blast from the past

I could also bump ol' Parkers "signs hyperinflation is arriving" from teh same year.

Fiscal conservatives have been handwaving about inflation and hyperinflation forever.

The problem is that the things they think would cause a lot of inflation were never going to cause runaway inflation.

The current bout is just the crimped Chinese supply chain manifesting itself, coupled with the coincidental effects of the undesirability of Russian petrochemicals to countries with any sane moral code.

The supply crimp depends on how much appe e Chinese govt has for lockdowns. Given what is happening in their economy, their current preferences seem likely to me to change, but that is my WAG.

[CosmicCowboy]

I could also bump ol' Parkers "signs hyperinflation is arriving" from teh same year.

Fiscal conservatives have been handwaving about inflation and hyperinflation forever.

The problem is that the things they think would cause a lot of inflation were never going to cause runaway inflation.

The current bout is just the crimped Chinese supply chain manifesting itself, coupled with the coincidental effects of the undesirability of Russian petrochemicals to countries with any sane moral code.

The supply crimp depends on how much appe e Chinese govt has for lockdowns. Given what is happening in their economy, their current preferences seem likely to me to change, but that is my WAG.

If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?

[DMC]

If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?

Widen the gap between upper and middle class.

[Winehole23]

hypothesis: we never recovered from the lost decade of financial repression (low interest rates, low wages and low growth) after the Great Recession.

[SnakeBoy]

lol Sandbu

[CosmicCowboy]

If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?

*crickets*

[ChumpDumper]

*crickets*

Easy -- it's not simply that.

[CosmicCowboy]

Easy -- it's not simply that.

Th crickets were aimed at RG's statement that it was simply cramped Chinese supply chains but thanks for agreeing with me.