Reigning Black: Richard Jefferson: In Focus

[temujin]

Oh, and of course with Duncan at 34-and-turning-35-by-the-PO anyone thinking about a 5th championship is not in touch with the crude physicality of degrading cartilages of ageing knees.

[Blackjack]

Scenario 2: There was a pre-arranged deal in June between Spurs and RJ.

I'm not sure if it was prearranged, as in RJ was in on it, but I believe it was preordained the Spurs were going to offer him the deal: acquiring him was a commitment to a 2-year window and changing course midstream would guarantee a failure, imo (at least, that's what I believe they felt).

They weren't going to find a player talented enough that fit well enough to come in and make them a contender again in his first year with the team. It's just not realistic -- it always takes time for new arrivals and we saw how dumbing down a playbook and a team lacking continuity and corporate knowledge fairs.

With RJ they've got the talent and hopefully built a decent enough base of continuity and corporate knowledge. That's the best they could do, is what I believe they felt -- and it's hard to argue after seeing how the market played out (player-wise).

In scenario 1, the question is: could Spurs have done better in the FA market than signing RJ for $39M?

The answer is obvious, yes. For example, they could have offered the rest of their MLE and promising a starting spot to Matt Barnes. I'm quite confident he woudl have accepted it. RJ is better than Barnes but nowhere near justifying all his additional cost.
If RJ has opted out on his own, the RJ re-signing sucks. I don't get at all why Spurs did that. It's as crazy as the Bonner re-signing.

This is quite simple, imo. Barnes equals a better fit, but guarantees a spinning of the wheels. There's simply no chance he puts them into the championship conversation if he fulfills his potential.

That's why even if Jefferson isn't demonstrably better than Barnes in this system he's still better (and Jefferson is clearly a better, more talented player). There's at least the potential that RJ could come through and bring enough to the table to put the Spurs back into contention if all goes well on the health front for the team. And that potential to do that is why he's worth the money to them.

Again, it's been about a 2-year window since the summer of '09. It's all about trying to squeeze out one final championship.

[Blackjack]

Oh, and of course with Duncan at 34-and-turning-35-by-the-PO anyone thinking about a 5th championship is not in touch with the crude physicality of degrading cartilages of ageing knees.

So would you rather they just trade Tim to a contender and start the rebuild in earnest?

[ElNono]

yep, it will be mentally dishonest for me to bash the rj trade with hindsight while i was thrilled by it a year ago.

Regarding spurs signing rj this summer, there are 2 distinct scenarios:
Scenario 1: Rj opt out on his own and spurs offered him a new contract in july.
Scenario 2: There was a pre-arranged deal in june between spurs and rj.

These 2 scenarios raise totally different questions:

In scenario 1, the question is: Could spurs have done better in the fa market than signing rj for $39m?
The answer is obvious, yes. For example, they could have offered the rest of their mle and promising a starting spot to matt barnes. I'm quite confident he woudl have accepted it. Rj is better than barnes but nowhere near justifying all his additional cost.
If rj has opted out on his own, the rj re-signing sucks. I don't get at all why spurs did that. It's as crazy as the bonner re-signing.

In scenario 2, the question is: What is better rj with $15m/1 year or rj with $39m/4 years?
It's really hard to see all the exact financial implications with the new cba, spurs' maybe rebuilding their team, parker and duncan future...
Even if it's hard to see whole picture, it seems obvious for me that rj for $15m/1 year was the better solution.

+1000

[ElNono]

I'm not sure if it was prearranged, as in RJ was in on it, but I believe it was preordained the Spurs were going to offer him the deal: acquiring him was a commitment to a 2-year window and changing course midstream would guarantee a failure, imo (at least, that's what I believe they felt).

They weren't going to find a player talented enough that fit well enough to come in and make them a contender again in his first year with the team. It's just not realistic -- it always takes time for new arrivals and we saw how dumbing down a playbook and a team lacking continuity and corporate knowledge fairs.

With RJ they've got the talent and hopefully built a decent enough base of continuity and corporate knowledge. That's the best they could do, is what I believe they felt -- and it's hard to argue after seeing how the market played out (player-wise).




This is quite simple, imo. Barnes equals a better fit, but guarantees a spinning of the wheels. There's simply no chance he puts them into the championship conversation if he fulfills his potential.

That's why even if Jefferson isn't demonstrably better than Barnes in this system he's still better (and Jefferson is clearly a better, more talented player). There's at least the potential that RJ could come through and bring enough to the table to put the Spurs back into contention if all goes well on the health front for the team. And that potential to do that is why he's worth the money to them.

Again, it's been about a 2-year window since the summer of '09. It's all about trying to squeeze out one final championship.

Sorry Black, but if you think RJ and Bonner put us any closer to championship contention than last season, you need to pass me what you're smoking.

I'm not saying Barnes would either, but because there was no 'better' talent (debatable, I guess nobody knew Ariza was on the block) this offseason, it doesn't mean you need to automatically hand out bad contracts to players you know. It simply takes away financial flexibility for the next offseason, where there might have been a piece available.

I mean, Richard was coming back this season no matter what. So the question is wether the Spurs should be paying $15m/1 or $40m/4... as Bruno explained, even if they are dodging the tax bullet now, they'll most likely are not going to in the next couple of seasons.

[nkdlunch]

the only thing RJ has in focus is TP's tight ass

[DPG21920]

So if it's a two year window why not just pay RJ 15m for this season? Instead you give more money to a marginal, aging player.

[Blackjack]

Sorry Black, but if you think RJ and Bonner put us any closer to championship contention than last season, you need to pass me what you're smoking.

I'm not saying Barnes would either, but because there was no 'better' talent (debatable, I guess nobody knew Ariza was on the block) this offseason, it doesn't mean you need to automatically hand out bad contracts to players you know. It simply takes away financial flexibility for the next offseason, where there might have been a piece available.

I mean, Richard was coming back this season no matter what. So the question is wether the Spurs should be paying $15m/1 or $40m/4... as Bruno explained, even if they are dodging the tax bullet now, they'll most likely are not going to in the next couple of seasons.

They made a promise to Tim and the team they fielded is the best possible team they could under the cir stance.

I think what people are confusing is the expectation we've grown to have as an elite franchise and the realistic expectations we should have at this point.

The Spurs are between a rock and a hard place. And even if I don't think the team's on a trajectory to win a championship with RJ (and Bonner, but he's really irrelevant to me), I do think that there's the slightest possibility that it could happen with this group.

Basically, I believe the Spurs have given themselves the best shot possible under the cir stance. And, as a fan, I'd much rather have that slightest little shred of hope than know my team just flat-out doesn't have the talent to get it done -- they've got enough talent to contend, even if it's not the right kind.

It's Dumb and Dumber:

So you're saying there's a chance!?!

[DPG21920]

Would they not have the same chances w RJ on a one year 15m deal?

[DPG21920]

I also disagree that a better fit (Barnes w 3pt shooting and defense) would not give the spurs a better chance at winning. A better fit for this system could very easy be a net gain over RJ's upside and one is more easily attainable (having a known skill set that fits vs hoping for upside).

Even if one is a better player than the other.

[Blackjack]

Would they not have the same chances w RJ on a one year 15m deal?

They obviously believe RJ can help them and is "Spurs" material. But the restructuring allowed them to maneuver the contract/books the way they felt they needed to to execute the business model moving forward.

You've gotta pay the piper, no doubt, but they've been all-in with RJ since the day they acquired him, imo. This allows them to decide on when and where that payment's made.

I also disagree that a better fit (Barnes w 3pt shooting and defense) would not give the spurs a better chance at winning. A better fit for this system could very easy be a net gain over RJ's upside and one is more easily attainable (having a known skill set that fits vs hoping for upside).

Even if one is a better player than the other.

Even if you're right that the Spurs could be a better team with Barnes instead of RJ (and there's a legitimate possibility you are), that team wouldn't be winning a championship. They just wouldn't have enough talent.

RJ could have them being a worse team than what they would've have been had they replaced him with Barnes, but he could also be a piece to the puzzle on a true contender.

There's at least the possibility of championship upside with RJ. Barnes ... not so much.

[DPG21920]

I see no upside enough from RJ that makes them a true contender and 40m for a pipe dream is crazy to me. Let's hope it pays off.

[Blackjack]

It just beats the alternative, in my view: throwing in the towel.

When Tim's done, for all intents and purposes, so is championship aspiration. And if Holt's willing to go all in on a less-than-stellar hand, God bless him.

We all want and hope that it somehow miraculously pays off -- after the '06 Heat won the championship I told myself I'll never say never again.

[DPG21920]

That Heat team wasn't facing a stacked Lakers or current Heat. I think this move w RJ is throwing in the towel. This is about a one year tax reprieve. If the spurs were serious about going all in, they should have done something more drastic (take on a bad contract like Iggy or something)

Getting swept and bringing back a bad fit long term w some rookies is a slap in the face to Tim if your goal is to win a le. They made this move being 99% sure there was no le hope. That 1% is not nearly enough to say they did this to win IMO.

[ElNono]

They made a promise to Tim and the team they fielded is the best possible team they could under the cir stance.

If that team happened to include Richard Jefferson, which is what I think you're implying, then what's the point of the 4/40 deal? He was coming back regardless. It was for 1/15 and the possibility of jettisoning him next season if he laid another turd, or basically betting Tim's last two seasons on what RJ and Matt can provide.

I think what people are confusing is the expectation we've grown to have as an elite franchise and the realistic expectations we should have at this point.

Hey, I've toned down my expectations considerably. You won't hear 'championship contender' from me.

The Spurs are between a rock and a hard place. And even if I don't think the team's on a trajectory to win a championship with RJ (and Bonner, but he's really irrelevant to me), I do think that there's the slightest possibility that it could happen with this group.

Never say never, but if you ask me to be realistic a paragraph above, then I'll be realistic. As far as Bonner, he' is not really irrelevant when he's eating up $3+ millions of your cap space and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That's basically 2x LLE and enough money to hire guys like Raja Bell or Matt Barnes this past offseason.

Basically, I believe the Spurs have given themselves the best shot possible under the cir stance. And, as a fan, I'd much rather have that slightest little shred of hope than know my team just flat-out doesn't have the talent to get it done -- they've got enough talent to contend, even if it's not the right kind.

But RJ was coming back for 1/15... so, if the Spurs thought having RJ was the 'best shot possible' for this upcoming season then they didn't need to sign him up at 4/40... That's the part of your diatribe that I don't understand.

[ElNono]

BTW Black, I see you addressed my last post in answers to DPG... I still don't agree, but feel free to skip over my last post...

[ElNono]

That Heat team wasn't facing a stacked Lakers or current Heat. I think this move w RJ is throwing in the towel. This is about a one year tax reprieve. If the spurs were serious about going all in, they should have done something more drastic (take on a bad contract like Iggy or something)

Getting swept and bringing back a bad fit long term w some rookies is a slap in the face to Tim if your goal is to win a le. They made this move being 99% sure there was no le hope. That 1% is not nearly enough to say they did this to win IMO.

This.

To me, bringing RJ back long term is basically throwing the towel for Tim's two remaining seasons. On the other hand, having him just for this season would have given the Spurs an opportunity to work something out with his expiring at season's end and maybe actually have a chance next season.

[Blackjack]

That Heat team wasn't facing a stacked Lakers or current Heat. I think this move w RJ is throwing in the towel. This is about a one year tax reprieve. If the spurs were serious about going all in, they should have done something more drastic (take on a bad contract like Iggy or something)

Getting swept and bringing back a bad fit long term w some rookies is a slap in the face to Tim if your goal is to win a le. They made this move being 99% sure there was no le hope. That 1% is not nearly enough to say they did this to win IMO.

See, that's where I've come to differ. I was a HUGE proponent of AI last year and he'd definitely be the player I picked on a one-for-one for this team (all things being equal, never having played with the Spurs) but neither of them is a good fit.

AI would be a bad fit in the same way Artest was for the Lakers (offensively) but the team wouldn't have been as successful because he wouldn't be surrounded with the same overwhelming talent. So as much as I like AI, him coming to this team and adapting in one year to be the piece that put them over the top just doesn't seem likely. Plus, there's that whole issue of having something the other team wants and that being something you're willing to give up, so it's more fan fantasy than realistic.

Would I rather have AI? Absolutely. But can I fault the Spurs for thinking that using RJ as an expiring to bring on a player like AI with the contract he's on to compete for a championship this upcoming year is crazy? Nah, I really can't.

If that team happened to include Richard Jefferson, which is what I think you're implying, then what's the point of the 4/40 deal? He was coming back regardless. It was for 1/15 and the possibility of jettisoning him next season if he laid another turd, or basically betting Tim's last two seasons on what RJ and Matt can provide.

Because it's what they had to offer to get him to opt out. I believe they've got a business model they've come up with, where and when the payments will be made, and that they're simply too far down the road with RJ to abandon ship. He's what they believe to be their best option available to them, considering the talent and familiarity they now have with him on the team. They just couldn't start from scratch with another player that wasn't a superstar.

Never say never, but if you ask me to be realistic a paragraph above, then I'll be realistic. As far as Bonner, he' is not really irrelevant when he's eating up $3+ millions of your cap space and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That's basically 2x LLE and enough money to hire guys like Raja Bell or Matt Barnes this past offseason.

He's their player and his salary has no bearing on the upcoming year's team other than in Holt's wallet.

I wasn't ecstatic or jumping for joy when I heard Bonner signed either, but I suppose I'm just not all that hung up on what the team will look like after Tim's gone. The Spurs front office kept the books straight for years and benefited greatly in the pocketbook while putting out an unbelievably successful team in the process. It's why they made the move for RJ and committed to spending the type of money they're now on the books for. So my only concern is that they field the best team possible, both as it pertains to talent and continuity. I believe the Spurs have done the best they could since acquiring RJ and that they know what they're doing financially -- I have a hard time believing Holt and Co. are going to let the team fall off the map once Tim's gone. They'll be respectable and their books won't be a mess. That, I do still have faith in.

But RJ was coming back for 1/15... so, if the Spurs thought having RJ was the 'best shot possible' for this upcoming season then they didn't need to sign him up at 4/40... That's the part of your diatribe that I don't understand.

Diatribe? Wow, I stop posting for a month or two and my man be gettin all hostile.

The Spurs had to get him to opt out. That's why. And because they did, they were able to sign Splitter and re-sign both RJ and Bonner for less than the 15.2M. And because he opted out the Spurs will only be paying an additional $13,492,000 - $14,492,000 on the final 3 years of RJ's contract because of the savings. A fact that will surely allow Holt to put together a better team when Tim's gone.

And it's not simply RJ would've only been on the books for 1-year and 15.2. Had RJ come back, it would've cost them 15.2M in salary, roughly 7M in tax and roughly 3.3M in redistribution. That's about a 25M swing.

I just honestly believe the Spurs know what they're doing financially and with their gameplan and I can't find too much fault with the thought process.

I can't be pissed at the team they have, as I can't realistically see them becoming a contender with what's to be had, and I have a hard time believing they're not fully aware of the expenditures and how it will affect the product on the floor once Tim's gone -- this organization's fully aware of how much of a front-running town SA can be and how discretionary funds are harder to come by once the product takes a hit.

I may have questioned plenty of personnel and in-game decisions but I've never been one to believe these guys don't know what they're doing when it comes to the business end. Dem guys know what dey doin'.

[Blackjack]

BTW Black, I see you addressed my last post in answers to DPG... I still don't agree, but feel free to skip over my last post...

Too late.

[ElNono]

Because it's what they had to offer to get him to opt out. I believe they've got a business model they've come up with, where and when the payments will be made, and that they're simply too far down the road with RJ to abandon ship. He's what they believe to be their best option available to them, considering the talent and familiarity they now have with him on the team. They just couldn't start from scratch with another player that wasn't a superstar.

The way I see it we're down the wrong road with a bad fit. Ultimately, if you do want to honor the window that a Duncan/Manu in decline can offer you for the next two seasons, going deeper into the wrong road and expecting to end in a championship makes zero sense.

If we're truly prioritizing Duncan's last two seasons, then the business model would need to take a second seat to that. I believe that's what happened last season. And ultimately if we're keeping Tony, the business model would indicate that the option was to take the tax hit this season or the next two.

To be frank, I'm more skeptic. I lean more towards their thinking being that they truly believe other teams are too stacked and we simply have no chance to win a ship. They took a gamble with RJ and it didn't pay off, and it kind of tied their hands. So you go to plan B: Put out a 'playoff team' product out there, milk the fans for whatever is left of the Duncan era and avoid the luxury tax hit at least for one year.

He's their player and his salary has no bearing on the upcoming year's team other than in Holt's wallet.

I wasn't ecstatic or jumping for joy when I heard Bonner signed either, but I suppose I'm just not all that hung up on what the team will look like after Tim's gone. The Spurs front office kept the books straight for years and benefited greatly in the pocketbook while putting out an unbelievably successful team in the process. It's why they made the move for RJ and committed to spending the type of money they're now on the books for. So my only concern is that they field the best team possible, both as it pertains to talent and continuity. I believe the Spurs have done the best they could since acquiring RJ and that they know what they're doing financially -- I have a hard time believing Holt and Co. are going to let the team fall off the map once Tim's gone. They'll be respectable and their books won't be a mess. That, I do still have faith in.

Well, he wasn't signed for just one season. He was signed for four, so he definitely will have some bearing, especially if we re-sign Tony. Again, are we prioritizing Holt's wallet (aka the business plan) or Tim's window? Because Matty is a great kid but he ain't taking this team any closer to a LOB.

Diatribe? Wow, I stop posting for a month or two and my man be gettin all hostile.

Sorry, I actually used the wrong word. I was aiming for 'long-winded/prolonged'. More like discourse.

The Spurs had to get him to opt out. That's why. And because they did, they were able to sign Splitter and re-sign both RJ and Bonner for less than the 15.2M. And because he opted out the Spurs will only be paying an additional $13,492,000 - $14,492,000 on the final 3 years of RJ's contract because of the savings. A fact that will surely allow Holt to put together a better team when Tim's gone.

I personally didn't think for a moment that hiring Splitter was subject to RJ's restructuring his contract. The window for getting him was now, otherwise he would have simply extended in Europe after an incredible season and for him to come on a rebuilding team after TD retired would have been fairly unattractive.

Furthermore, the projected savings on RJ's are subject to wether we re-sign Tony or not. As Bruno already explained earlier in the thread, we will be paying lux tax the next two seasons and those two contracts will add considerably to that.

And it's not simply RJ would've only been on the books for 1-year and 15.2. Had RJ come back, it would've cost them 15.2M in salary, roughly 7M in tax and roughly 3.3M in redistribution. That's about a 25M swing.

It is what it is. We'll be taking the millions hit down the road regardless. The way I see it, the question is: business plan or championship window?

I just honestly believe the Spurs know what they're doing financially and with their gameplan and I can't find too much fault with the thought process.

I'm mostly concerned about the gameplan, and I hope you're right. There's nothing that would please me more as a fan than to be wrong right now.

I can't be pissed at the team they have, as I can't realistically see them becoming a contender with what's to be had, and I have a hard time believing they're not fully aware of the expenditures and how it will affect the product on the floor once Tim's gone -- this organization's fully aware of how much of a front-running town SA can be and how discretionary funds are harder to come by once the product takes a hit.

I may have questioned plenty of personnel and in-game decisions but I've never been one to believe these guys don't know what they're doing when it comes to the business end. Dem guys know what dey doin'.

I don't necessarily disagree that they know what they're doing financially. I just don't agree that it aligns with a gameplan that attempts to extend Duncan's window for a ring.

[Seventyniner]

This.

To me, bringing RJ back long term is basically throwing the towel for Tim's two remaining seasons. On the other hand, having him just for this season would have given the Spurs an opportunity to work something out with his expiring at season's end and maybe actually have a chance next season.

Really? The Spurs are giving up? What possible motivation would they have to do that?

This organization obviously knows how to put a winner on the floor. Have they suddenly forgotten how? Or is it just maaaaybe possible that they know what's best for the team better than you do?

[DPG21920]

AI was just an example, that was not the important part. The important part was if they are serious about winning they needed to do something different. Also, if they are willing to pay RJ 40/4 I don't see why they would hesitate to bring on someone younger with considerably more upside (not saying Iggy exactly)

[ElNono]

Really? The Spurs are giving up? What possible motivation would they have to do that?

This organization obviously knows how to put a winner on the floor. Have they suddenly forgotten how? Or is it just maaaaybe possible that they know what's best for the team better than you do?

It's not just what the Spurs do. Remember Pop saying when the team pulled the trigger on the RJ trade that they felt that they didn't have enough talent to compete?

I don't know how Miami is going to look, but right now the bar is set by the Lakers, and it's a pretty high bar.

People seem to forget that we just had our asses handed to us in a sweep in the second round. With the big 3. And RJ.

So maybe they took a gamble with RJ and it didn't pay off. That doesn't mean that they didn't try to put a winner out on the floor. It just means that the gamble didn't pay off.

[Blackjack]

Sorry, I actually used the wrong word. I was aiming for 'long-winded/prolonged'. More like discourse.

Yup, that's an indication that the 'Jack may be back. From Omnipotent to long-wind-ed-ness, I might be on my way to being worth a damn.


Rather than play into my long-wind-ed-ness and predilection for monotony (I'm boning up for Scrabble Wednesday), have a look-see at this. It's a great reminder and refresher on the dawn of the RJ era. [Sorry, that even made me laugh. "on the dawn of the RJ era"? More like Don ... am I right? Right? Anyone. ... No? )


Bottom line, I wasn't for the initial RJ trade. I was never a proponent of his and I don't expect it to turn out as well as we all hoped. But I think most would agree that the logic was sound for the acquisition initially, so it's now down to what would've been better for the Spurs this upcoming year: the team they have now with a locked up RJ; the team they would've had with both he and Parker on expirings; or the team they would've had if RJ had went elsewhere, leaving the Spurs to fill the small forward role with a LLE-type.

Weighing all of the possibilities and probabilities, whether they could do better than RJ this upcoming year, I can't say they did the wrong thing. Doesn't mean I like it or am happy about it, but I can't argue too much with the path they've taken this summer.

Them winning a championship may be the equivalent to hitting the Lotto, but they at least bought a ticket. That's all I can really ask for at this point. I've yet to hear another option they had that was better. Maybe financially long-term but not as it pertains to Tim and his window. And again, I trust that the Spurs have a sound gameplan and business model when it comes to life after Tim. Holt's fully aware that he's gotta have a quality product on the floor to draw in SA and realizing the savings now I'm sure was part of the plan. Save now, pay (possibly) later -- only Manu is currently on the books and the team's future salary may not be flirting with the tax as much if 1 or 2 of the Big 3 are gone.

Fail.

That was sooo long-wind-ed-ness.

[Waps1980]

Maybe they are getting ready for 2011-12 when Duncan to retires, TP heads to the Knicks.
Then pick up a pass first point guard put Manu on the floor and RJ will be back to 20ppg as he will be the second scoring option.