Nah, now that the ridge over Russia is gone you have a much more normal pattern over the Atlantic. Combine that with record SSTs and La Nina in the Pacific and you've got a train of storms in the making. We'll probably have the next one within a week too if the GFS is right.
Earl's windfield is expanding, and this is before he undergoes an ERC. He could very well bomb out to a full Cat 5 by tonight, and many models are supporting this, some forecasting as high as 165 mph+ sustained winds. One model even said 175, I think.
The Weather Channel in their infinite wisdom just stated that it could be a potentially historic event if Earl impacts the Eastern coast West of forecast models.
I have a friend flying to DC from Holland the day after tomorrow. What timing.
And my morning show nightmare...Earl from 7am to 9am...for the foreseable future.
Now, don't get me wrong..I'm a weather geek throug and through and am nervous/scared/anxious to see where it ends up and am also concerned about all the residents in the path...
Anyway. I sure sound like a sour some days don't I? Sorry.
941 mb
Wow...I knew it would intensify with near 30 C waters and very little shear(4 knots) but man, this thing became pretty monstrous very quickly. The 6PM advisory has the pressure at 939.
It's going to be interesting to see just how strong Earl gets over the next couple of days, but judgment day is definitely Friday when the low pressure trough is scheduled to move off the EC. Hopefully the timing lines up...but if I'm in SC on Thursday and it's tracking pretty close I'm getting out of dodge.
Please don't hit anywhere.
This thread is almost vintage.
I'm watching with interest. Fiona as well.
Man, our storm names suck.
There is a typhoon out in the west Pacific with the name Lionrock. Now thats a storm name.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml
928.4 mb. Closing in on Category 5 status.
the lowest actual pressure i've seen is 931.
Also - definitely looks like its developing a concentric eyewall situation. I believe we're going to see an EWRC before it hits cat 5 so this may be the strongest it ever gets.
Earl looks like he's continuing to strengthen or at least maintain intensity even though he's going through the EWRC. A bit unexpected, but his convection looks good, and his outflow is great except to the W where there's some dry air.
Pressure continuing to drop even with dry air to his W.
Pressure has now fallen officially to 931 mb, from 943 earlier today and 935 late on the 30th.
Starting to get a little nervous here in dc. Latest forecast models have shifted the track further west. Any more and we could see at least tropical storm force winds in this area, and some models have us right in the hurricane-force path.
The eye collapsed this morning. Both earl and the frontal system have slowed significantly. He's still a strong cat 4 with no visible eye on the satellite, but he still has lots of strong convection.
If you live on the east coast, you should start making preliminary plans in case the worst happens.
Bout in time the entire East coast needs to be taken down a peg
Eyewall replacement started. It was really obvious on radar last night. I don't think it will get stronger than it is now and hopefully that is the case. I saw the cone made a pretty good shift to the west overnight. This storm could rake the entire east coast from NC up.
Classic trainwreck2100.
Are the water temps up there going to be able to sustain a storm like this? Or will it weaken quite a bit?
Im set to go on a cruise on 3 October in the Caribbean. I hope all these storms finish up this month.
doubtful, cause this month ends today
The temps are high for quite a bit of water in its path. Its not until it passes north of North Carolina or so that the water temp begins to really become to low to sustain a storm like this.
Its the air thats going to start changing to a less favorable situation. Shear is expected to rise in the next day and there is a lot of dry air that was pulled down from the north by Danielle's circulation north of Earl. If that gets pulled into the system it will slow down the system.
Oh and September will be pretty busy huricanewise but October will probably have a decent amount of storms as well.
=( I'm hoping for a window of at least one week.
You'll not need a window on yo ship when hurrican tomika blasts out the whole port side deck, think of all the fish you'll see as your ass goes straight to the bottom o davy jones
He's weakened a bit, down to 939mb. However, he's expected to strengthen today over warm waters, and the frontal passage that was expected to recurve him to the East is crawling across the US.
Some models are now predicting a landfall in North Carolina, but most have Earl skirting the coast.
Either way, I'm hoping for some big waves to watch.
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