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I don't really like that there, if they get in a playoff series and go cold there for a few games it's a wrap. I don't like the fact a team relies on threes falling at that clip to win (Old Suns and Mavs etc.).
I wasn't so sure that the Spurs are really taking a lot more 3's than other teams - especially the ones that are near the top of the standings. So I looked at the number of 3PA vs FGA for the 8 best teams in the league. (Best records currently.) Turns out the Spurs are pretty high on the list. About as often as the Lakers, but not nearly as often as the Magic. (Note: The last column shows what percentage of each team's shots are 3's. For the Spurs about 1/4 of their shots, almost 25%, are 3 pointers.)
Team.....Record...3PA...FGA.3PA/FGA
Magic.....(6-3)....242 - 707.. .342
Lakers....(8-2)....222 - 898.. .247
Spurs.....(8-1)....184 - 754.. .244
Mavs......(6-2)....141 - 614.. .230
Hawks....(7-4)....180 - 846.. .213
Hornets..(8-0)....129 - 615.. .209
Jazz.......(7-3)....144 - 825.. .175
Celtics....(8-2)....134 - 798.. .168
So then I started wondering if the Spurs are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this year than they did in previous years. It's about the same as the last 4 years, but considerably more often than the 4 years before that.
Year 3PA FGA 3PA/FGA
2009 1,547 - 6,659 (.232)
2008 1,620 - 6,534 (.248)
2007 1,610 - 6,424 (.251)
2006 1,561 - 6,328 (.247)
2005 1,362 - 6,342 (.215)
2004 1,395 - 6,450 (.220)
2003 1,140 - 6,434 (.177)
2002 1,270 - 6,297 (.202)
The 06-07 season is the only time we have shot a high percentage of 3's and still won it all. But our 3P shooting percentage was much higher starting in 2006, so maybe we're shooting them because we're hitting them? So far this season, we are making an obscene percentage of 3's. I'm sure we'll slow down some if we quit hitting the shots.
Last edited by GSH; 11-15-2010 at 03:48 PM.
I don't really like that there, if they get in a playoff series and go cold there for a few games it's a wrap
Spurs would lose easily if it became a slowdown series with Lakers. Gotta go with possibly could work.I don't really like that there, if they get in a playoff series and go cold there for a few games it's a wrap
I wouldn't say we're relying on it. Teams aren't respecting our range and leaving the arch open, it's as simple as that.
We're still attacking the basket when we need to, usually.
3 point shooting was the key for every Spurs championship. At first the Spurs collapse the opponent defense, then the ball goes to the perimeter, rotate until the wide open player who takes the shot.
In the 99 and 03 championship year the defenses mainly collapsed because Duncan without a immediate double team was automatic points.
For the 05 and 07 championships, guard driving become important as well, that scheme was first seen with Derek Anderson for the 2000-2001 season.
This season, the offense doesn't go trough Duncan, Parker and Duncan don't even play P&R either, not sure why. With the rule changes, PG's and swing players are in great advantage one on one. The Spurs have talented players in Parker, Manu, RJ, Hill and probably Anderson to take advantage.
If the player that drive doesn't score or get fouled, the ball returns to the perimeter, where Manu, RJ, Hill, Bonner, Neal and Anderson can shot 3's and Parker and Dice can make large 2's.
However, I think that the Spurs will resort to the interior players for scoring at some point. Duncan and Splitter are very talented, the Spurs should play P&R too.
The Spurs over-relied on the 3-point shot in their only loss this season - to the Hornets. The Spurs made more FTs, pulled-in more rebounds, dished-out more assists, had fewer TOs but went 6-26 from the arc. That drove their FG% down to 38.8% and, along with poor rotational defense, ended up being the Spurs' downfall. They just weren't very aggressive in going to the basket and settled for what the Hornets gave them. The Spurs missed.
As long as they stay aggressive. I think they got the right mix of shooters who shoot with a lot of confidence. They will keep this up plus they are getting to the line and right now they are what 9th in freethrow percentage. That right there is a huge stat.
Really the Spurs have only three guys who can beat their man off the dribble and score. That is Timmy, Manu and Tony that is why Manu is so important to us because when Tony is out Manu is our PG.
I don't think it will be a problem this year but I would like the Spurs to draft someone next year who can create their own shot and hit from the outside.
Your thinking is a bit too "inside the box". Both Parker and Ginobili also demand extra attention in the paint.
Twenty three pointers isn't a lot. We just made a ridiculous amount of them. As for the Lakers, they'll dare you to shoot them, and if you hit them, like Phoenix did last night, they lose. At this point, they are older and less athletic than we are, and they have to pick an area to defend. Bet on "paint" when they play us. Our three point shooting will have to pry open their packed lane strategy.
And that's the key. It's okay if you're taking a lot of threes AND getting to the line. It's not okay if you're taking a lot of threes INSTEAD of getting to the line.
It's amazing how much easier those threes drop when Tony Parker is healthy and able to attack the basket again.
It's not really a coincidence that the Spurs lost the one game where they just thought they could shoot from the outside all night long without working for a better shot.
I agree. Phil has always dared us to shoot from the outside. With our excellent outside shooting that has to help us more than hurt us. In the playoffs, Phil always tries to expose your weakness. If Tim can still score in the paint come playoffs, then then I think we'll be fairly balanced. And as others have said, this team so far hasn't just been about shooting 3s. RJ, Tony, and Manu have been getting in the lane constantly.
Relying? No
Spurs have a good enough balance right now, when you consider the cir stances..
Manu and Duncan clearly have orders not to exert too much during this part of the regular season..Ginobili is taking 3 more 3-point attempts per game, and Duncan is shooting 2+ less shots at the rim per game, IIRC..neither of them are really attacking the paint so far..
The Spurs are 14th in points in the paint, despite this, and they're 8th in FTA per game, the best they have been since 2003..the balance is fine right now..there are a lot of offensive weapons on this team, it's impressive..
Dead on. The balance is more than fine right now.
The question may be that if the 3's stop falling, will they be able to get it done some other way? And if you're talking about right now, today, we're probably a little lacking. But some of Blair's point-blank shots and put-backs are starting to fall. And I have confidence that Splitter will be a significant scoring threat in the paint, by the All Star Break.
The real thing that isn't being said is, "Can Tim still get it done down low?" We all know that Tim is getting to the latter part of his career. But don't kid yourself - he's still Tim Duncan. While the 3's are falling, he doesn't have to kill himself. But when the Spurs need it, he'll do whatever is needed. The end may be in sight, but it's not this year.
right, you need to keep the defense on their toes. This year though it seems like the right people are getting to the line. Plus Parker is knocking down his freethrows as well. I've never seen a Spurs team that had so many legit 3 point shooters
We'll be fine as long as Jefferson is still taking it to the hole, and scoring on aggressive drives to the hoop and drawing fouls. Because Tim isn't as effective drawing fouls and getting interior points as easily.
They would not fall in a series where the D tightens up, we saw that before in 01 when we had the top three point team in the league that year with Ferry, Porter, Elliott etc., they did not fall in the WCF's and the Spurs were toast relying on that three. They have other aspects of the game now luckily with Manu, Parker and RJ who can slash, but shooting that many threes never works in the end and they eventually stop falling at that clip.
Last year we relied on it alot too, as a matter of fact the last two years I hated all the threes they were launching, when they did not fall SA went flat in the water.I hope so! Still pissed Anderson is out for so longI will miss him and he was shooting the ball really well and a part of that attack. I hope someone will pick the slack up with him out.
Tim had a great first half last season and i think he can repeat it afterwards or when itīs needed. Luckily we donīt need it now.
Same goes for Manu last year (second half), he can repeat it, but we donīt need either of them with a healthy Parker to get easy points and with better 3pt shooters.
ive been worried about it through 4 champsionships and 1 Memorial Day Miracle.
It's a chicken and egg situation. If we don't have good 3 point shooters, opposing defenses will just collapse on Duncan. The paint will be crowded out and Parker and Manu will have more problems slashing to the basket.
If we have good 3 point shooters, Duncan will be able to work better inside and face less double teams. Slashers will also have more space with a spread out floor.
I'm not worried about reliance on 3 point shooters. Good 3 point shooters are ESSENTIAL to winning and I'm happy that we have quite a few players that have taken turns lighting it up from beyond the arc.
We have to play to our strengths. Thus far 3 point shooting is one of them. Its essential to have good shooters. If we cant rely on quality shooting then what ?...Timmy cant dominate every game anymore.
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