Ran Some Numbers

[Warlord23]

even if the mavs win in their last game with the spurs, the head to head will be tied and spurs own the next tie breaker which is i believe is the vs. conference record.

In this case, if the Spurs and Mavs tie head to head (2-2), the second tie breaker is the division record (as the Spurs and Mavs are in the same division).

The Spurs are currently 8-3 in the division with 5 games left (H = home, A = away):
DAL - 1 (0 H, 1 A)
MEM - 2 (0 H, 2 A)
HOU - 2 (0 H, 2 A)

That's 5 road games including 2 vs a bruising Memphis team.

The Mavs are 6-5 (2 games back) in the division with their 5 games being:
SAS - 1 (1 H, 0 A)
MEM - 1 (1 H, 0 A)
NOH - 2 (1 H, 1 A)
HOU - 1 (0 H, 1 A)

If the Mavs go 4-1 (a loss at either NO or HOU which is the back end of a B2B), the Spurs will have to go at least 2-3 in their 5 games. Doable, if they take care of business at Houston and maybe 1 of the 2 Memphis games (I'm assuming they lose at DAL, else this discussion is moot since SA will have a 3-1 H2H).

If that stays tied, the next tie breaker is conference record. The Spurs have played 36 games in the WC compared to 32 by the Mavs, but the Spurs only have 5 losses to the Mavs' 8 losses. I think this tie breaker is almost in the bag, given that SA plays 10 eminently winnable games (SAC, @SAC, PHO, @ PHO, GSW, @DEN, UTA, POR, @HOU X2). If they win 9 of those 10, they finish with a 40-12 WC record. That will leave the Mavs with a target of trying to win 16 of 20 vs the West with 11 of 20 being on the road.

Bottom line: it will take a perfect storm for the Mavs to catch us, barring injuries of course.

[Jimcs50]

If we go 0-23, then Dallas only needs to go 7-16