I don't think with this current roster, and the chemistry that we have a good shot at winning the championship. Probably something like 10-15% realistically. Anything can happen really though, all it takes is for one team to get hot at the right time, like the Mavericks last year. Either way, even with this current Lakers team I think they'll end up taking the West, although I say that with a lot less confidence than the past 4 years. There just aren't any really good teams in the West that I'd pick over a battle tested group with stars on it(even though idk if I'd call Pau or even Bynum "stars").
I think there's a good chance that Dwight ends up coming to LA, and that would probably make the Lakers the favorites again. We'd trade Bynum + filler(s) to get Dwight/Hedo(worst case scenario). Dwight is so much better than Bynum defensively, and even offensively which lots of Laker fans won't admit. Dwight doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective like Bynum does.