Keep 'em coming. Analyses like this are what sets ST apart from the rest.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html
More stats like these for the spurs can be found here. Manu and Splitters offensive and defensive ratings are pretty badass...I cant wait for them to play together.
great stuff!
Love writeups like these. Keep 'em coming!
I have felt like Pop has gone away too much from Duncan and structured the offense too much around TP and Manu the last few years. Sure, Duncan has declined some, but I really believe the perception is exaggerated and that Duncan's lower numbers are related to touches. If he's not getting touches, it is just going to feed the perception that he has declined a lot. Spurs need to keep giving him touches.
I love these stats Timvp, i could read these all day long. Though my boss will be pissed lol
Seeing how the 2nd unit is scoring more, do you think it could be that they are shooting more? Do you have stats on avg. attempts taken when Duncan is on the court, and attempts taken when he is on the bench? Also, the 2nd unit usually consist of Bonner, Green, Neal who like to shoot a lot of 3's which will result in more points. Or how about ft's as well. Does it show that maybe the 2nd unit is getting to the line more?
Good questions.
Starting lineup = Duncan, Parker, Jefferson, Leonard and Blair.
Second unit = Splitter, Neal, Green, Bonner, Anderson
Without Manu I would say there are a number of NBA teams that have better starting lineups than Spurs. Especially with Jefferson, Leonard, and Blair so inconsitent. However, when Manu eventually moves back into his starting spot I think the Spurs starting group can hold their own.
That second unit is pretty impressive when you consider how well Splitter, Neal, Green and Bonner have each had games where they produced big time. Splitter alone is one of the best bench guys in the NBA and could be a starter as well all have noted.
All in all when Manu and Ford finally come around this Spurs team is going to be two deep at every position.
Understood that this thread is focused on Duncan's impact on the offense.
From 82games.com, the +/- for each player is:
Manu: +20
Bonner +4.4
Green 4.1
Parker 4.0
Splitter 3.6
Jefferson +0.4
Duncan +0.1
Leonard -2.4
Blair -5.3
Neal -5.5
Seeing these numbers, it tells me that Splitter, Bonner, Parker and Green playing together is netting the greatest +/-, which I think accounts for the offensive observations TimVP is making, while also considering defensive impact. Parker is playing a lot of minutes with that second unit too. Interestingly, Neal is the biggest weak link +/- wise in the second unit, but if you look at 5 man units, the best five man unit is Neal in with the starters, and of the best win percentage of the 5 man units with the backups, Neal is in 2 of the 3 (the other is with parker instead).
Neal is really not an efficient shooter, and is a huge dropoff on the assists from Parker, but he benefits from playing with green, bonner and splitter evidently.
When Manu gets back, parker/manu/green/splitter/bonner will be killing it if you think +/- is a predictor of success. The starting unit, with the lion's share of minutes, has a net +/- of -2 on the year, btw.
According to 82games, Duncan is playing all of his time at center, because he is the biggest BIG we have. However, he is spending more than half of his time shooting outside. that SHOULD allow splitter to alternate with him in the post, EXCEPT that Splitter is TERRIBLE outside of the post. So, until Splitter develops a mid-range shot (if ever), he needs an outside shooting post player next to him. That is not a problem, considering he is more efficient than Duncan close, but it is a problem because it makes the offense predictable.
I think a big part of the dropoff in the offense generated with Duncan on the floor is that he is no longer generating easy looks for his teammates. That alone explains a lot.
What do we do? So, if we just insert Manu and Splitter into the starting lineup in place of Leonard and Blair, and make Blair, Green, rj, Leonard, and probably Ford the main alternating role players, does that work? See above, only if Duncan is 90% shooting from the outside instead of on the block, because Splitter is useless from outside the post.
The only other consideration I see that that we don't want Green's minutes to drop too much. RJ is producing more than Leonard, but continuing to develop Leonard, and thus him getting more time than RJ, still makes sense.
The Parker/Duncan and Manu/Duncan 2 man game has been deadly the last few years, and the Spurs were wise to go back to that well often. Not so much this year. Parker and Duncan have been the place where offense goes to die this season. Either they'll figure it out or they'll do something else. Right now it seems to be the latter and both of their games are benefitting from it.
im not concern of the big 3s production, its the bench and kawhis production im concerned with....live by the 3pt line, die by he 3pt line....just another classic example of 08 season
There's nothing wrong with taking 3 pointers but you want them generated more from the post than drive and kicks which are easier to defend. With Splitter's ability to draw double teams in the post it could really open it up for the three point shooters. That's the way the Spurs championships were won before. Duncan was able to score or draw double teams and kick out for a 3.
It's fool's gold in the sense that him keeping up that percentage is unlikely, but it's not in the sense that he's an improved mid range shooter. He was already a good enough mid range shooter to pair with Splitter on offense anyway, though.
The only reasons for not playing them together often are: 1) No big on the team plays major minutes and because of that, them starting together would lead to plenty of Blair-Bonner together and 2) Pop doesn't view Splitter as someone who can defend stretch four's. I really don't think it's about the offense.
I appreciate the the post Timvp. I do enjoy this analysis specially when they are short, but straight forward and concrete. I'd love to see Tony's progress for the season, as well as a deep analysis on the best catalyst for the defense.
Hey I love the statistics and the break down of each players game by history. Great job and thanks for taking the time to do the analysis.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
