Agreed on all points......
Wishful thinking, LJ
Great write up. Can't argue with stats or facts.
That said...I'd like to see them try a starting unit of Parker, Duncan, Blair, Neal and Leonard. Primary second tier of Ginobili, Jefferson, Splitter, Bonner and Green. When TJ returns...reduce Green's minutes and/or adjust Green and Jefferson depending on matchups.
And I'm not saying this to be a permanent rotation or in disagreement with Timvp but using the same reasons in the op with different players.
With regards to (1), Neal starting elevates the teams' lack of scoring punch and, as pointed out in (5), Neal is a better defender when allowed to roam more so than one on one. Case regarding number (8) is also addressed since Neal is a better than average rebounder in the guard position. Plus...Neal is becoming better as a facilitator and gives the Spurs an added attack the basket element. Paired with Parker and Kawhi on the perimeter might not be AS potent as Ginobili but would still be better than being presented at the time.
Common factor I believe is Jefferson more so than anybody else in this. Jefferson has always performed better being paired with Ginobili. Jefferson off the bench with Ginobili allows Spurs second unit to have (for what it's worth) two starters in that unit. Ginobili, Green, Jefferson, Splitter and Bonner present a formidable rotation that should hold true with the comment... "Jefferson's skillset will mesh perfectly with the reserves. His shooting can spread the floor for Splitter. And since the bench plays the game at a faster pace, Jefferson will get more chances to get out and run." Again...R.J. paired with Ginobili has always produced an effective combination. With Parker and Duncan (for a lack of a better phrase) out of the way...Manu and Jefferson may produce optimum results.
Anyway...not meant to be argumentative...just a different perspective.
It is a dream lineup for a Spurs fan, but unlikely at this point. Due to Tony's need for rest, Manu's need for conditioning, I can see Manu coming off the bench for a bit. As others have noted, until TJ is back or Neal/Green become reliable ball distributers, the second unit needs Manu.
As for benching RJ for KL, that would be awesome to see. I don't think Pop wants to put that much pressure on KL or defend the $9Million bench guy.
I'm not comfortable with Manu coming back and having to fill in as backup pg. I know we're excited about Manu coming back but I still wonder how effective he's going to be coming back from surgery on his dominate hand so he's still a big question to me. Until TJ comes back Tony's just going to have to hang in there.
I think it will come down to matchups. Like vs Philly, Leonard came off the bench for the Lou Williams assignment I believe. I'd love to have Leonard start every game, but I can't see Pop doing it. As much as it pains me. If Splitter doesn't start, I can't see Leonard starting.
Hear, Hear. While I too love LJ's new lineup idea (Pop won't do it, sigh), I've said before that with TJ out Manu will be needed to backup Tony at playmaker. Otherwise, I agree JEfferson needs to sit, and Leonard needs to start due to his defense and awesome rebounding.
But... we talkin' 'bout Pop. He won't play Tiago more, and he plays RJ and Blair too much... WTF?
Remember though Pop benched RJ back in 2010 ... and that year he was making $14,200,000. The only reason RJ went back into the starting lineup was because Parker broke his hand.
There's history of Pop benching a much better version of the current RJ, however I'm not exactly going to hold my breath this year given Pop's questionable rotations so far this season.
While I'm fine with Manu coming off the bench until he gets back into shape (Pop has already said that will happen, in fact), I respectfully disagree with the notion that the use of Manu should be tied with TJ Ford's status.
1. In a recent telecast, Elliott said that Ford is still limping. If that's the case, it could be a while before Ford is ready to return. This season is going by too quickly to wait around while not using the best possible rotation.
2. Ford is so injury prone that even when he does return, it's pretty likely that something else on his body will pop or break or get strained. If you pigeonhole Manu into a specific role based on the health of Ford, that's a slippery slope.
3. Manu has quarterbacked the second unit most of his career -- no matter if he's a starter or coming off the bench.
Once Manu is back in shape, in close games my preference is to have Parker play 34 minutes and Manu 29 minutes. That way, once you account for blowouts, Parker will average around 32 minutes per game and Manu will average around 27 minutes. (Right now, Parker is averaging around 38-39 minutes in close games, which is obviously too much.)
You can start both players and still hit their optimal close-game minute levels:
FIRST QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 2:00
Ginobili enters at 2:00
SECOND QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 6:00
Parker enters at 6:00
THIRD QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 4:00
Ginobili enters at 4:00
FOURTH QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 10:00
Parker enters at 10:00
Ginobili enters at 5:00
Starting Manu with that minutes distribution is almost the same than bringing him of the bench. He will basically play some minutes at the start of the first and third quarters instead of playing these minutes in the middle of the first and third quarters if he was a bench player. Match-up wise, it's a wash since the other team usually doesn't sub its best players before late in the first and third quarters.
I find that Ford is an interesting part of the equation.
If Ford comes back in 8 or 10 games, that is to say in 3 or 4 weeks, do you keep a rotation with Manu starting or coming from the bench that keep at least one of Parker and Manu on the court during the whole game?
Ford isn't the best fit possible with Manu and I think a lineup like Ford/Green/RJ/Bonner/Splitter could do well offensively.
Excellent writeup LJ. Loved reading every word. All the reasons listed are both viable and plausible.
Allow me to add another reason why Ginobili and Leonard should start, or rather, a more compelling reason as to why RJ should be benched - his piss-poor, cowardly performances in this past year's playoff series versus the Grizzlies. In fact, RJ played so poorly and so uninspired in that series-clinching Game 6, that Pop could no longer stomach it. We all remember that it became so bad that Pop resorted to inserting 6'2" George Hill as a replacement SF for the failing RJ, in an effort to get more production out of that position. Of course, that didn't help either. Yet, it really spoke to Pop's desparation. It also spoke to why the Spurs felt compelled on nabbing a player of Leonard's ilk in this past summer's NBA draft.
Of course, RJ's suckiness wasn't the sole reason the Spurs lost that series, but his ostrich-like play surely didn't help. If there were ever a single flashpoint revelation to all, as to why RJ should be benched, that game, and that series, should be it. If Pop isn't still angered by this, he should be.
Thus far this season, we've seen very little evidence that RJ has improved, changed or evolved since last spring. While he's had a few bright moments, he still cannot be trusted to be an important contributor come playoff time. He simply has no history of such.
Fast forwarding to the present, keeping Leonard in the lineup with Manu simply makes the most sense. While Leonard isn't the outside shooter RJ is, the fact that he's disruptive on defense, is a phenomenal rebounder and can score around the basket, should all be more than enough reasons for Pop to elect to keep him in starting lineup. Of course, ramping up Splitter's playing also makes the most sense too, but...I digress.
Excuse the chime in. I can see Timvp's point. In all honesty it makes perfect sense to get the best players on the court in the beginning of every game.
However I think it is also warranted in your pov to bring Manu off the bench.
I believe the minutes equation is correct on your part that it is essentially the same a if Manu were coming off the bench. Also it appears to be too frequent of an intervention of player rotation to accomplish a rhythm.
From what I've seen thus far (sans Ginobili) in the starting lineup is a building of rhythm with Parker and Duncan while the cast of extras being secondary forces in planned execution. To Timvp's point...a better supporting cast with Parker/Duncan does need to be established. However, I feel Ginobili with Jefferson as 2nd tier will afford the same effect as Timvp suggested while allowing Parker/Duncan (Neal, Kawhi and Blair rounding out the starters) to still achieve the goal of improving the starters AND allow the second unit to continue with great execution.
That is a very potent bench indeed, not to mention Neal needs to be worked in there somehow. I like the idea of lighting a fire under RJ's ass by putting him on the bench, and making him compete.
Upon, Manu's return and integration I wouldn't be surprised if Pop does a situation-based starting line-up starting either RJ or Lenard depending on defensive need. He's been doing it already.
Maybe once Manu is fit we can bring Tony from the bench...
Please bench RJ Pop.
It may even light a fire under his ass to get him motivated.
Timvp, once Ford returns, and let's assume he doesn't re-injure himself, whose minutes do you think will get reduced to allow Ford to back up Parker? Green? Neal? I'd like to see RJ's minutes go down even further but that's probably asking too much.
(On a side note about rotations, since Green has been struggling somewhat as of late, I think giving JA some more minutes would be have been a great idea to see where he's at, but with Manu set to return, JA's future with the Spurs might be permanently over because I can't see him getting any more playing time now with a more crowded back court, even more so when TJ eventually returns.)
I'm more curious what the minute break down will be?
RJ's netting 25mpg in Feb, with Neal and Green leading the way in the back-court, if that trend continues, I wonder how that will play out when Manu comes back... you've got 96 minutes to split between 5 guys (assuming Anderson is cut from the rotation). That's not a lot of PT.
To close out games, I hope to see Manu with a combo of Green or Neal (whoever is hot) or Kawhi (if we need a stop).
I'd be happy with RJ starting, so long as his minutes are lower than Green and Neal's. I could live with RJ being the 4th Wing in our rotation... I'd be happier if he was the 5th.
Nice post. All reasons are excellent.
I agree most with 1 and 2. Manu will easily inject some life in the first unit and I think he'll make Leonard offensively better.
And yes, the second unit is playing great, but with Manu's return, I'm sure his and Tony's time will overlap with this unit. I think you just need to ride the hot hand from game to game. Of course, the odd men out are Joseph, Anderson, and maybe Green, especially if he continues to shoot as poorly as he has in recent games. I know Green provides other things beside scoring, I just hope he doesn't end up in Pop's doghouse. Also, with Manu's return, I hope these bench guys don't defer too much to him.
I'm curious, how exactly will Manu make Leonard better offensively when by all accounts Leonard's jump shot (mid-range and 3 point) is virtually non-existent?
So far, Leonard's a guy who can score with offensive put-backs or cutting to the rim off the ball and scoring near the basket.
Manu can P&R with Splitter/Blair/Tim, pick and pop with Bonner, drive and kick with Neal/RJ. You have to be able to shoot or be a good roll man as a big to be amenable to help from someone like Manu.
And just to be clear, I'm not blaming Leonard. I think he brings a lot to the table (defensively), but I doubt he'll improve offensively with Manu's insertion. I think his shortcomings as an offensive liability can be mitigated with the insertion of Manu (i.e. with Manu's insertion, the entire lineup can absorb the brunt of Leonard's offensive woes), but I don't think Leonard himself will end up scoring more.
Manu makes everyone's offense better, just by standing on the floor. He garners that much attention. Combine that with a hot TP and resurgent TD, I can see an increase in Leonard's offense with just the things you mention.
agree with all the reasons .. plus this line up will be really good for the playoffs .. hopefully some how pop decides to play this line up..
Excellent piece, timvp. If Manu and Kawhi end up on the floor together along with Timmy, Blair and TP, Kawhi will need to become more efficient on his marksmanship from the arc. Although Leonard has a nice .449 floor percentage, his .333 from 3-pt land needs work.
With TP and Manu creating, that only leaves one other perimeter shooter.
With that said, it's the 4th quarter lineups that intrigue me the most. In tight games, I really look forward to an end-of-game lineup of Tiago, Timmy, Cow-eye, Manu and Tony.
Having three of the best passers on the floor with him will really help him score. In addition, where Manu can roam on defense, you can let Leonard roam on offense. His long arms and nose for the ball make him the perfect garbage man for the starting unit.6. Hiding Leonard's Offensive Shortcomings
For as well as Leonard plays on the defensive end, he's unquestionably the team's biggest offensive liability. Since his outside shot is iffy, he doesn't spread the floor much. And Leonard thus far hasn't developed the ability to create for himself going to the rim in halfcourt sets, which forces him to basically live off of backdoor cuts and offensive rebounds.
Those limitations obviously don't make Leonard the optimal player to start next to the Big 3, but the starting lineup would have the offensive talent to offset his weaknesses. Even with Leonard, I expect the starting lineup to be an elite scoring unit. And who knows, playing next to Ginobili could greatly improve Leonard's ability to score. We've seen that happen countless times in the past.
timvp and bruno nice debat
Agreed. I'll just quote myself from earlier today, when talking about Tony/Manu/Duncan/Splitter:
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