What do we expect from Manu come playoff time?

[Fireball]

What do I expect? That he will not be healthy but still plays with more heart and toughness than most Spurs players ... don't know if this would help the teams this season

[Proxy]

I expect him to get enough confidence and in shape by the playoffs... it'll be Tony leading the offense out the gate. When the defense adjusts, Manu will step up.

Make no mistake about it, this team does nothing in the playoffs without him. We all know how dangerous of a team the Spurs are when they're 100%.

[bus driver]

i expect him to have ice in his veins come play off time.

[timvp]

If Manu's confidence is not there, doesn't matter if he's healthy or not.

Manu couldn't have had any confidence last year after breaking his arm right before the playoffs ... and he was still fine.

If healthy, Manu will be damn good.

[ElNono]

It pisses me off that Manu won't take a summer off to get healthy.

He did, the summer prior to last one.

There's just nothing you can do to prevent an hyperextended elbow, a broken nose, or even that last fracture. I suppose he could pull an RJ and sleepwalk out there, and I'm sure he would've been much less injured. Then again, that wouldn't be Manu.

[jestersmash]

I posted this in another thread (about Splitter's lack of playing time in lieu of Matt Bonner last playoff season against Memphis) -

Matt Bonner's been given significant playoff time during the previous 3 playoffs. I know most people aren't the biggest fans of PER on these boards, but as very, very rough estimate of overall impact, I think PER can be a passable stat in a pinch.

Playoff PER

Matt Bonner
2008-2009: 3.3
2009-2010: 8.6
2010-2011: 11.8 (playing 20.5 MPG for a total of 6 games and 123 minutes during the Memphis series)

Tiago Splitter
2010-2011: 21.1 (playing 16.7 MPG for a total of 3 games and 50 minutes during the Memphis series)

Note: The league average PER is 15.0




By the way, here are playoff PER stats for the Big 3 for anyone interested -

Tony Parker
2001-2002: 16.4
2002-2003: 11.9
2003-2004: 18.9
2004-2005: 12.0
2005-2006: 17.5
2006-2007: 18.7 <--- Finals MVP
2007-2008: 19.9
2008-2009: 29.3
2009-2010: 16.7
2010-2011: 17.6
Average = 16.6

Manu Ginobili
2002-2003: 15.0
2003-2004: 22.2
2004-2005: 24.8 <-- Duncan Finals MVP (Duncan PER = 24.9)
2005-2006: 21.5
2006-2007: 21.9 <-- Parker Finals MVP (Parker PER = 18.7)
2007-2008: 17.1
2008-2009: DNP
2009-2010: 21.4
2010-2011: 22.3
Average = 20.6

Tim Duncan
1997-1998: 20.4
1998-1999: 25.1 <-- Finals MVP
2000-2001: 25.4
2001-2002: 31.8
2002-2003: 28.4 <-- Finals MVP
2003-2004: 24.1
2004-2005: 24.9 <-- Finals MVP
2005-2006: 30.4
2006-2007: 27.4 <-- Parker Finals MVP (Parker PER = 18.7)
2007-2008: 21.9
2008-2009: 27.3
2009-2010: 19.7
2010-2011: 15.5
Average = 25.4



================================

A 20.6 average PER is pretty elite. Usually, a PER of around 21 is good enough to rank you among the top 20 players in the league (in the 15-20 range). Manu's been pretty consistent with a playoff PER of around 20 (save for his very first season here which is understandable and '07-'08 where it dipped a bit).

And Tim Duncan's numbers are just gaudy, especially up through our '07 championship.

Edit: Note, the PER stats are for the entire playoffs. Finding "Finals PER stats" would've been better when comparing Finals MVP candidates, but I'm too lazy to do that and the comparisons were made in jest anyway so I didn't bother

[hater]

Manu couldn't have had any confidence last year after breaking his arm right before the playoffs ... and he was still fine.

thanks for agreeing with me

If healthy, Manu will be damn good.

that's a huge IF

[gameFACE]

Not sure what to expect. He can contribute at several levels of health. But he has to be in the game. This latest injury is the most cause for concern. From last years Suns game to the recent Clippers that's 17 games, including playoffs and preseason, and he's been hurt three times. With plenty of time in between each injury, too. I'm not sure if that's a total fluke or if his age is caught up to his style of play.

The young guys are playing great but no Manu in the playoffs means no championship. And with the way they have been playing recently, especially the key defense at times, I'm starting to believe thay have a real shot.

[Borosai]

This year will be different. Manu will be healthy. Matty will forcefully spread his ass cheeks and on everyone. Duncan will turn back the clock. Neal's game winners won't be wasted. The Spurs will get stops when they need them.

Championship!

[stéphane]

It's all about health as it's been mentionned.

Anyone who questions Manu's talent or ability to play smart ball (even now that he's aging a bit) never saw him play.

He's a unique talent who can change the outcome of the game even if his shot is off.

[GSH]

He did, the summer prior to last one.

There's just nothing you can do to prevent an hyperextended elbow, a broken nose, or even that last fracture. I suppose he could pull an RJ and sleepwalk out there, and I'm sure he would've been much less injured. Then again, that wouldn't be Manu.

Ahhh... I know all that. That's why I posted his playoff numbers. I still wish he'd leave the summer ball to younger guys. And just about every study on workplace injuries suggest that fatigue is a big factor - even the "unavoidable" injuries tend to happen a lot more often to people who are over-extended. Hard to prove on any individual incident, but over time it's pretty hard to ignore.

But you're right - he wouldn't be Manu if he did things differently. I'm not one of the all-or-nothing guys here. The point of all those numbers is that even an injured Manu is better than many, if not most players in the league. I'd rather have him rested, but I'll take him any way we can get him.

[kaji157]

I expect Ginobili to have a great postseason given the ammount of rest he has had.
I am thinking something around 22-4-6.