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There are so many angles to this Andrew Bogut-Monta Ellis trade that it's hard to know where to start: Golden State finally breaking up the Ellis-Stephen Curry backcourt and going legit with a true center; Milwaukee going the opposite direction and putting Scott Skiles in charge of a free-wheeling, floor-spacing offensive juggernaut; Cap'n Jack returning to Golden State; and significant collateral damage, potentially, in Utah and New York.
Let's walk through it from top to bottom.
1. Follow the money
Let's start, as we do with all NBA trades, with the money. Milwaukee traded Bogut and Stephen Jackson to Golden State for Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh. It's money neutral this season, but in the two following years the advantage goes to Milwaukee in a big way. Bogut is owed $27 million over the next two seasons, and Jackson is owed $10 million next year. Milwaukee replaces that with one year and $11 million for Ellis (or two and $22 million if he chooses not to opt out), and two at a total of $8 million for Udoh.
In doing so, Golden State punted a chance at cap room this summer, while the Bucks gained a lot of cap flexibility -- they could conceivably get $15 million or so under if they wanted to make a run at a player this summer, although this would involve using the amnesty on Beno Udrih and letting Ersan Ilyasova and Carlos Delfino walk. More realistically, they can re-sign the latter two and still stay under the luxury tax when an extension for Brandon Jennings kicks in. Big picture, Milwaukee saved $7 million next year, and it will make a big difference to both sides.
2. Why would it work here?
I see everyone connecting the dots. Curry and Ellis didn't work in Golden State. Jennings is smaller than Curry and less efficient. Ergo Jennings and Ellis won't work either.
I'm not sure it's that simple. For one, Jennings is a pretty solid defensive player and Curry is not. But more importantly, Milwaukee is a very different environment than Golden State. Instead of the rah-rah gang ignoring his defensive apathy and trying to hype him for the All-Star Game, Ellis will be subject to the wrath of Scott Skiles when he jogs back on defense.
Additionally, every other defensive combo in the Bucks' backcourt works much better. The Bucks' backup point guard is 6-7 Shaun Livingston, who is a perfect cross-matching backcourt partner for the smaller Ellis. Udrih is big enough to check some 2s as well. And with wing defenders like Delfino and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and a real defensive system around them, the Bucks will likely be better able to his Ellis' defensive shortcomings.
Offensively it will be more interesting, as the Bucks are becoming Contested 20 Footers R Us with Jennings, Ellis, Drew Gooden and Ilyasova. But Milwaukee was also in need of another shot creator to help take the heat off of Jennings, and I suspect Ellis' presence may help elevate Jennings' true shooting percentage to closer to the league average. (His points-per-game average, alas, will likely dip.)
In short, however, it's hard to imagine how this is worse than the status quo. Bogut and Jackson weren't playing; Milwaukee traded them for two guys who are, and both of them are faring pretty well.
Longer term, it's true you'd probably rather have Bogut than Ellis. Even with all the injuries and the likelihood that 2009-10 was a career year he won't match, Bogut is an elite defensive center who will probably shoot better on a team that doesn't need to play through him so much.
But would you rather have Bogut than Ellis, Udoh (a pretty fair defender in his own right, albeit one with hands of stone), and $7 million in cap space? I don't think so. Between that and the short-term considerations, I like this deal for Milwaukee a lot.
3. Sorry, Utah
The big loser here may be the Jazz, as part of Golden State's motivation appears to be an elaborate ruse to avoid ceding a lottery pick to Utah. The timing is bizarre because the Warriors had played themselves into playoff contention, but the Warriors' brass had to view the landscape and see that (a) they were still highly unlikely to make the playoffs and (b) they owed their first-round pick to the Jazz if it didn't fall in the top seven.
At 17-21, Golden State has some work to do to finish in the league's bottom seven teams. (And that wouldn't ensure a top-seven pick, since a team 8th or below could usurp a top-3 spot in the lottery and push them down one.) Detroit is 15-27, just two back in wins but six in losses, and the Warriors also need to "pass" two other Eastern teams to get into the bottom seven.
But between the trade and the upcoming schedule, they may be in position to do so. Jackson is no longer capable of playing big minutes on a decent team (even if his hamstring injury magically heals itself on the flight to Oakland) and Bogut won't be back until April, if at all. If the Warriors are smart they'll encourage him to take his time. With the Warriors running a gauntlet of elite teams in April, they have a great shot at effectively "trading" for a lottery pick with this deal.
The irony, of course, is that the Warriors are tanking even though they have a better record than Milwaukee! Nothing serves as a more glaring example of the difference between East and West -- the Bucks can load up for a playoff run at 18-24, while a 17-21 Warrior team is playing for next year.
4. Sorry, New York
The other big loser here is New York, which is going to have a much tougher time keeping pace with Milwaukee for a playoff spot in the East now that the Bucks have added both Ellis and, don't forget, a much-needed frontcourt defender in Udoh. The Bucks were already playing well, having won four of five -- the only defeat in that stretch came on a Derrick Rose buzzer-beater in Chicago.
They were doing this even while starting Tobias Harris and running Ilyasova and Gooden into the ground; now they have a coherent rotation with Udoh off the bench to spell the frontcourt starters, Ellis and Delfino starting on the wings, Mike Dunleavy backing them up, and Udrih filling in the gaps. When Mbah a Moute and Livingston are healthy, this will be one of the league's deepest teams and one capable of matching up big or small.
5. The big picture
I've long felt that Ellis is one of the league's most overrated players, but every player has a right price. I think Milwaukee hit it here. They moved a lot of money and have some time to see the Ellis-Jennings combo in action before deciding to commit to one or both via contract extensions.
In the meantime, the transition is as interesting for Skiles as for Ellis; in two years he's gone from coaching a lockdown defensive team that couldn't score in an empty gym to what is basically a Mike D'Antoni roster -- a floor-spacing, empty-middle outfit with zippy guards, jump-shooting bigs and a fast tempo. Before you chortle, remember that Skiles had considerable success playing this way with Ben Gordon in Chicago, and may be able to use that as a template for Ellis.
As for Golden State, one notable development is that this move wasn't driven by a need to win the press conference, which represents something of a sea change for a notorious pom-pom organization. The Warriors will likely slip back in the playoff chase (in fact that may have been one of their motivations) and won't see any return from this deal until next fall.
But they have a more workable roster with Curry-Bogut than they did with Curry-Ellis; as I outlined in Tuesday's PER Diem, the data on their on-court performance was overwhelming. Bogut will also help protect David Lee, and he'll need to create less offense than he had to in Milwaukee. I don't see a return to his 2009-10 level, but the change of scenery could help him a lot.
Where Golden State erred is in managing the cap. Taking on $10 million for Stephen Jackson is a hefty price to pay when the Warriors could have been players in free agency, and despite adding Bogut their depth in the frontcourt remains a major question mark going forward.
That's why I like this trade better for the Bucks. But this wasn't a bad deal for the Warriors either ... especially if they can manage the tanking part.
