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I want another week or two of the players seeing who does well together before I'm ready to start suggesting playoff lineups. That backup unit earlier this season was lightning in a bottle. There's probably more of those out there to discover.
thats the thing. i can see pop playing all 12 players in the playoffs but those 9 players will see the most time(hopefully). bonner will get time at PF but expect to see some small ball as well.
I want another week or two of the players seeing who does well together before I'm ready to start suggesting playoff lineups. That backup unit earlier this season was lightning in a bottle. There's probably more of those out there to discover.
Pop said before he was playing Splitter as many minutes as possible. Let's see if that changes with the addition of Diaw.
There will be 12 players in the playoff rotation. Mark my words.
It comes down to two battles. One is Blair vs Diaw, for starting PF and the other is Green vs Leonard, Jackson and Neal, for perimeter minutes period.
I think the former ultimately goes to Diaw. Pop is probably just waiting for an excuse to make the switch. Blair has played well recently, the team is rolling, they've got injuries and the schedule is condensed. So it doesn't make sense to risk mentally losing Blair right now. But if they ever get healthy and they go through a mini slump, I expect the switch to be made.
The latter is more interesting. It's difficult to envision any of those three not being in the playoff rotation. But at the same time, it's going to be awfully difficult to not play Green at all. They could play ten, but that's awfully difficult too. So basically, those three are going to have to avoid more than a couple of poor showings in a row to retain their spots.
The rotation won't get shorter than 10, and there will be changes depending on the opponents. So lets look at the possible first round match-ups the Spurs may face:
First, the physical big teams aka LAL and Memphis:
Duncan/Splitter - need a big on the floor at all times so this works
Blair/Diaw - Blair can bang and be extremely physical, so start him and see how it looks. If he gets reamed then bring in Diaw to guard Pau/Zbo.
Kawhi/SJax - Either will be used to shut down Kobe/Gay.
Green/Manu - Both will be hopefully allowed to roam defensively in order to create chaos, as both seem to shine when in this situation (though both can guard the #2 perimeter option such as OJ or Sessions). Only reason Green starts is to keep the Neal/Manu backcourt intact for dual PG reasons.
Parker/Neal - Parker is the #1 option these days, the only true PG, and the lone allstar. The gameplan of any opposing team will be to shut him down. Neal works as a backup PG generally, and having him and Manu on the court together could negate any issues that may come up such as Conley shutting TP down like he did last year (they could just move the ball up via passing to each other when Conley gives fullcourt pressure).
That line-up can also offer the best defensive potential to match up against the quality D both teams bring to the table.
Then there's matchups where the opposing D won't be as gruesome, such as the Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets:
Duncan/Splitter - These teams, especially the Rockets, have a couple 7-footers to throw around, but they are generally all Centers. Therefore it isn't imperative for the Spurs to play both Splitter and Duncan together. Both can also thrive in their respective matchups against starters and backups.
Blair/Diaw - Blair's size wouldn't be as important, and he could potentially have an advantage against the opposing bigs in Scola/Griffin with his physical play, as he's had in the past. Diaw can basically guard any of the PFs he may face (if his D continues to look as good as it has).
SJax/Leonard - None of these teams have a superstar-caliber scorer Leonard would need to check, so SJax could be depended on to handle Martin/Butler/Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington (whoever Denver plays at the 3 these days) while offering his offensive talents. If push comes to shove and Sjax can't get it done just move Leonard back to the starting lineup.
Manu/Neal - The Manu/Neal backcourt won't be as effective here, so putting Manu back in the starting line-up to give energetic offense and defense while having Neal come in to light up the offense (or to potentially match the opposing shooters when they get going) would create a SG nightmare against any of these teams.
Parker/Mills- Parker can handle Lowry (if he comes back) and CP3 no problem. Lawson may be an issue but I feel he'll gradually find a way to match his speed. Mills will be needed to counter Dragic but can also be an asset in defending Miller, Bledsoe, and possibly Mo Williams (though if he becomes a factor I'd like to see SJax or Leonard move onto him).
None of the teams above play any top tier D, so the Spurs could play how they have been most of the season and come out on top. These would represent the easiest matchups (though I'd put Houston as the toughest in this category due to the length of their Centers and how close games against them have been this season).
Then there's the Jazz and Suns. These teams represent the middle ground, as both have length and some sharp shooters. Though the Jazz's 3-point shooting is not on the level of the Suns, they make up for it with scoring in and around the paint. The best line-up here would seem to be this:
Duncan/Splitter - Blair would be at a mismatch against either, as he can't compete with Jefferson/Gortat's length and ability to score away from the basket (less so for Al), so he's best utilized only in dire times. Timmy and Tiago can contain Al/Marcin well enough as is.
Diaw/Bonner - This could be where the Spurs have no answer. Millsap has really developed into one of the premier PFs of the Western Conference; many teams have tried and failed to contain him. The best scenario for the Spurs would be to offset his production by matching it, which Diaw and Bonner should be capable of (provided Bonner doesn't disappear again, in which case Blair should take his place). Whatever D they provide is just a bonus. It's less so for Frye, as he's been inconsistent this year. If he gets hot from three, it's best to hope Bonner matches.
SJax/Leonard - Like with Houston, LAC, and Denver, there are no star scoring threats, so I'd like to see SJax start here. He can be reasonably expected to keep Dudley and Grant from going off. It'd be most important for him to hold down Miles in a potential Jazz matchup as he's the Jazz's strongest (and at many times only) 3-point shooting threat. Should he fail it wouldn't be too hard for Leonard to come in and cool them off (provided it's early enough in the game).
Manu/Green - Their energy and length will be key to keeping Nash/Harris from developing any consistent rhythm, and their explosiveness can really turn the tables quickly. If Green plays poorly move him for Neal and go for the same gameplan as the Houston/LAC/Denver matchup.
Parker/Mills - No need to worry about D from Nash or Devin Harris, but both can dish out assists quite well (only recently in Harris' case). Haven't really paid much attention to the individual matchup of these two against Tony in the past, so if there's any issues just bring Patty in to keep up the speed and try to mix it up.
These two would cause the Spurs a bit more problems, the Jazz due to their length and the Suns due to how hard they play the Spurs. In the end this would be the second easiest for the Spurs.
The toughest series I feel the Spurs would face is OKC (which at this point is all but likely if the Spurs reach the WCF). They're athletic, physical, have allstar talent, and most likely homecourt to boot. In that situation I'd like to see:
Duncan/Splitter - Duncan or Splitter would need to be in the game at all times to rebound and guard the rim. They can also be counted on to get easy buckets but in this matchup I don't expect too much offensively. Just keep Ibaka from affecting play on both sides as much as possible.
Blair/Diaw - Blair for some reason comes to play against OKC. Unless it changes in game 1, I'd like Pop to let him have his chances to score. He can handle Perkins' physical play, and isn't intimidated in the least. Not sure how Boris would react to Perkins' game, but it couldn't be worse than Bonner's playoff form. I might support using Bonner first for whenever Collison is in to see if he'd elevate his play, but if not let Boris have a shot at making noise.
Leonard/SJax - Leonard needs to contain Durant as well as he can. He's shown the ability in the past two games, so lets see how it goes. SJax is a wild card, but I think his edge and pride would be enough to handle Harden if he isn't starting by the time the playoffs start. If he is, I'd move SJax to the 2 to guard him.
Green/Manu - Green brought it last game in OKC, so lets see if he can do it on the big stage. If not, OKC hasn't seen Manu this year and may not have a game plan for him. As stated, if Harden is starting by this time, I'd move Manu to the backup 3, Green to backup 2, and let SJax start.
Parker/Neal - This is a matchup I think Parker would not only get up for, but dominate. We all know Westbrook is gonna shoot, so the question is how effective will his shots be? If he chucks, Parker will win the series for the Spurs. If he chooses his shots carefully and makes an impact, hopefully Neal can get hot and try to return fire while playing against Fisher who prolly won't do much of anything. I honestly think it'll be the latter, as there's no way Brooks/Durant will allow him to cost the Thunder another series.
Lastly is the Mavericks. When you look at their roster, they appear to be the toughest match-up, as they play great D, have good shooters, have length in spades, and have been known to play the Spurs tough. However, the Spurs have had their number for whatever reason it seems (two blowout losses in SA while even in Dallas they came close to winning with just the bench). This is a matchup where both sides would potentially use their bench to a larger extent (with the Mavs being older and the Spurs having weapons that could potentially counter the Mavs' strengths). As of this point and from what we've seen, the lineup I'd throw out is:
Duncan/Splitter - Use Duncan against Haywood and Mahinmi, while Splitter takes whoever else they decide to throw out. If just those two, put Splitter on Haywood while Duncan takes Mahinmi. This is a matchup that favors the Spurs imo.
Blair/Bonner - As per the normal, Dirk is tough to guard, but the Spurs may have found a way to do it. Start Blair off on Dirk and see if his physicality can disrupt him. While doing that he can roll in the paint and see if he can get going offensively. Bring Bonner in when Dirk is out to counter the barrage of threes you know Dallas will hit.
Leonard/SJax - Leonard and Marion can go toe-to-toe in the beginning, provided Blair limits Dirk. If not, switch Leonard to the 4 and onto Dirk, and bring SJax in to guard Marion. If Leonard fails, move him back onto Marion and put SJax on Dirk.
Green/Manu - Jason Kidd is old, but he's crafty and a pretty good defender. Give Green a chance on him should Parker have trouble. Otherwise, all Green needs to do is keep the corpse of Vince Carter from having an impact. When Jet inevitably checks in bring Manu in to guard him/offset whatever he does.
Parker/Neal/Diaw - For whatever reason, Parker seems to have trouble against Dallas. Might be nothing, but be a problem. If not, let Parker go to work leading the offense. If he struggles, bring in Neal with Manu to run the PG for a bit and to jack up shots when the offense slows or to keep Dallas' D true. In the case of Blair, Leonard, Sjax, and Splitter fail to guard Dirk, bring in Diaw to run the PG and go super-big against Dallas. He can handle it probably as well as Neal, but won't put up the shots. However, he's shown himself to be more than capable of guarding Dirk and setting good screens on offense to offset his lack of shooting. If he can't take Dirk, at least there's Bonner...
Other than OKC, I feel a series against Dallas would be the toughest. However, the Spurs can be counted on to get up for any game against Dallas, so I don't think there'd be a problem like last year of the Spurs taking them lightly.
Many have been saying the West is wide open this year, and just looking at the standings proves it. No team is that much better than the others after OKC, San Antonio, and LAL. Therefore, it's reasonable that any team can upset another this year. Hopefully the Spurs can avoid that and reach the Finals.
/wall of text
I am kind of starting to agree. Every player this season, at the least, deserves a chance to crack playoff rotation.
Great write up Robz, gave me some much needed insight! I can see it now.The rotation won't get shorter than 10, and there will be changes depending on the opponents. So lets look at the possible first round match-ups the Spurs may face:
First, the physical big teams aka LAL and Memphis:
Duncan/Splitter - need a big on the floor at all times so this works
Blair/Diaw - Blair can bang and be extremely physical, so start him and see how it looks. If he gets reamed then bring in Diaw to guard Pau/Zbo.
Kawhi/SJax - Either will be used to shut down Kobe/Gay.
Green/Manu - Both will be hopefully allowed to roam defensively in order to create chaos, as both seem to shine when in this situation (though both can guard the #2 perimeter option such as OJ or Sessions). Only reason Green starts is to keep the Neal/Manu backcourt intact for dual PG reasons.
Parker/Neal - Parker is the #1 option these days, the only true PG, and the lone allstar. The gameplan of any opposing team will be to shut him down. Neal works as a backup PG generally, and having him and Manu on the court together could negate any issues that may come up such as Conley shutting TP down like he did last year (they could just move the ball up via passing to each other when Conley gives fullcourt pressure).
That line-up can also offer the best defensive potential to match up against the quality D both teams bring to the table.
Then there's matchups where the opposing D won't be as gruesome, such as the Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets:
Duncan/Splitter - These teams, especially the Rockets, have a couple 7-footers to throw around, but they are generally all Centers. Therefore it isn't imperative for the Spurs to play both Splitter and Duncan together. Both can also thrive in their respective matchups against starters and backups.
Blair/Diaw - Blair's size wouldn't be as important, and he could potentially have an advantage against the opposing bigs in Scola/Griffin with his physical play, as he's had in the past. Diaw can basically guard any of the PFs he may face (if his D continues to look as good as it has).
SJax/Leonard - None of these teams have a superstar-caliber scorer Leonard would need to check, so SJax could be depended on to handle Martin/Butler/Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington (whoever Denver plays at the 3 these days) while offering his offensive talents. If push comes to shove and Sjax can't get it done just move Leonard back to the starting lineup.
Manu/Neal - The Manu/Neal backcourt won't be as effective here, so putting Manu back in the starting line-up to give energetic offense and defense while having Neal come in to light up the offense (or to potentially match the opposing shooters when they get going) would create a SG nightmare against any of these teams.
Parker/Mills- Parker can handle Lowry (if he comes back) and CP3 no problem. Lawson may be an issue but I feel he'll gradually find a way to match his speed. Mills will be needed to counter Dragic but can also be an asset in defending Miller, Bledsoe, and possibly Mo Williams (though if he becomes a factor I'd like to see SJax or Leonard move onto him).
None of the teams above play any top tier D, so the Spurs could play how they have been most of the season and come out on top. These would represent the easiest matchups (though I'd put Houston as the toughest in this category due to the length of their Centers and how close games against them have been this season).
Then there's the Jazz and Suns. These teams represent the middle ground, as both have length and some sharp shooters. Though the Jazz's 3-point shooting is not on the level of the Suns, they make up for it with scoring in and around the paint. The best line-up here would seem to be this:
Duncan/Splitter - Blair would be at a mismatch against either, as he can't compete with Jefferson/Gortat's length and ability to score away from the basket (less so for Al), so he's best utilized only in dire times. Timmy and Tiago can contain Al/Marcin well enough as is.
Diaw/Bonner - This could be where the Spurs have no answer. Millsap has really developed into one of the premier PFs of the Western Conference; many teams have tried and failed to contain him. The best scenario for the Spurs would be to offset his production by matching it, which Diaw and Bonner should be capable of (provided Bonner doesn't disappear again, in which case Blair should take his place). Whatever D they provide is just a bonus. It's less so for Frye, as he's been inconsistent this year. If he gets hot from three, it's best to hope Bonner matches.
SJax/Leonard - Like with Houston, LAC, and Denver, there are no star scoring threats, so I'd like to see SJax start here. He can be reasonably expected to keep Dudley and Grant from going off. It'd be most important for him to hold down Miles in a potential Jazz matchup as he's the Jazz's strongest (and at many times only) 3-point shooting threat. Should he fail it wouldn't be too hard for Leonard to come in and cool them off (provided it's early enough in the game).
Manu/Green - Their energy and length will be key to keeping Nash/Harris from developing any consistent rhythm, and their explosiveness can really turn the tables quickly. If Green plays poorly move him for Neal and go for the same gameplan as the Houston/LAC/Denver matchup.
Parker/Mills - No need to worry about D from Nash or Devin Harris, but both can dish out assists quite well (only recently in Harris' case). Haven't really paid much attention to the individual matchup of these two against Tony in the past, so if there's any issues just bring Patty in to keep up the speed and try to mix it up.
These two would cause the Spurs a bit more problems, the Jazz due to their length and the Suns due to how hard they play the Spurs. In the end this would be the second easiest for the Spurs.
The toughest series I feel the Spurs would face is OKC (which at this point is all but likely if the Spurs reach the WCF). They're athletic, physical, have allstar talent, and most likely homecourt to boot. In that situation I'd like to see:
Duncan/Splitter - Duncan or Splitter would need to be in the game at all times to rebound and guard the rim. They can also be counted on to get easy buckets but in this matchup I don't expect too much offensively. Just keep Ibaka from affecting play on both sides as much as possible.
Blair/Diaw - Blair for some reason comes to play against OKC. Unless it changes in game 1, I'd like Pop to let him have his chances to score. He can handle Perkins' physical play, and isn't intimidated in the least. Not sure how Boris would react to Perkins' game, but it couldn't be worse than Bonner's playoff form. I might support using Bonner first for whenever Collison is in to see if he'd elevate his play, but if not let Boris have a shot at making noise.
Leonard/SJax - Leonard needs to contain Durant as well as he can. He's shown the ability in the past two games, so lets see how it goes. SJax is a wild card, but I think his edge and pride would be enough to handle Harden if he isn't starting by the time the playoffs start. If he is, I'd move SJax to the 2 to guard him.
Green/Manu - Green brought it last game in OKC, so lets see if he can do it on the big stage. If not, OKC hasn't seen Manu this year and may not have a game plan for him. As stated, if Harden is starting by this time, I'd move Manu to the backup 3, Green to backup 2, and let SJax start.
Parker/Neal - This is a matchup I think Parker would not only get up for, but dominate. We all know Westbrook is gonna shoot, so the question is how effective will his shots be? If he chucks, Parker will win the series for the Spurs. If he chooses his shots carefully and makes an impact, hopefully Neal can get hot and try to return fire while playing against Fisher who prolly won't do much of anything. I honestly think it'll be the latter, as there's no way Brooks/Durant will allow him to cost the Thunder another series.
Lastly is the Mavericks. When you look at their roster, they appear to be the toughest match-up, as they play great D, have good shooters, have length in spades, and have been known to play the Spurs tough. However, the Spurs have had their number for whatever reason it seems (two blowout losses in SA while even in Dallas they came close to winning with just the bench). This is a matchup where both sides would potentially use their bench to a larger extent (with the Mavs being older and the Spurs having weapons that could potentially counter the Mavs' strengths). As of this point and from what we've seen, the lineup I'd throw out is:
Duncan/Splitter - Use Duncan against Haywood and Mahinmi, while Splitter takes whoever else they decide to throw out. If just those two, put Splitter on Haywood while Duncan takes Mahinmi. This is a matchup that favors the Spurs imo.
Blair/Bonner - As per the normal, Dirk is tough to guard, but the Spurs may have found a way to do it. Start Blair off on Dirk and see if his physicality can disrupt him. While doing that he can roll in the paint and see if he can get going offensively. Bring Bonner in when Dirk is out to counter the barrage of threes you know Dallas will hit.
Leonard/SJax - Leonard and Marion can go toe-to-toe in the beginning, provided Blair limits Dirk. If not, switch Leonard to the 4 and onto Dirk, and bring SJax in to guard Marion. If Leonard fails, move him back onto Marion and put SJax on Dirk.
Green/Manu - Jason Kidd is old, but he's crafty and a pretty good defender. Give Green a chance on him should Parker have trouble. Otherwise, all Green needs to do is keep the corpse of Vince Carter from having an impact. When Jet inevitably checks in bring Manu in to guard him/offset whatever he does.
Parker/Neal/Diaw - For whatever reason, Parker seems to have trouble against Dallas. Might be nothing, but be a problem. If not, let Parker go to work leading the offense. If he struggles, bring in Neal with Manu to run the PG for a bit and to jack up shots when the offense slows or to keep Dallas' D true. In the case of Blair, Leonard, Sjax, and Splitter fail to guard Dirk, bring in Diaw to run the PG and go super-big against Dallas. He can handle it probably as well as Neal, but won't put up the shots. However, he's shown himself to be more than capable of guarding Dirk and setting good screens on offense to offset his lack of shooting. If he can't take Dirk, at least there's Bonner...
Other than OKC, I feel a series against Dallas would be the toughest. However, the Spurs can be counted on to get up for any game against Dallas, so I don't think there'd be a problem like last year of the Spurs taking them lightly.
Many have been saying the West is wide open this year, and just looking at the standings proves it. No team is that much better than the others after OKC, San Antonio, and LAL. Therefore, it's reasonable that any team can upset another this year. Hopefully the Spurs can avoid that and reach the Finals.
/wall of text
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