Bonner & Stats: Fun with the Binomial Distribution

[Russ]

Two problems with this:
a) the issue is not really how well the variables are controlled, it's the small sample size.

You're right, Matt never gets to the line in big game situations. When he gets the ball, the opposing defender flies away from him quicker than Leeds United in an offside trap. The defender actually looks at Matt and smiles, making shooting motions.

Sample size = 0.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

That confidence interval with an expected range of 24 to 42% for his 3 point shooting is hilarious...as if that gives us anything useful. That range would cover the vast majority of NBA players.

Anyone trying to prove Bonner is somehow clutch is already showing bias on their part.

Bonner is a choker. We all know this.

[Drz]

Sorry, hadn't come back to this thread since posting it, but here's my brief summary of replies.

• Regarding Bonner's playoff 3P% being worse in all 5 years, if we assume it's a 50% chance that someone performs worse (it has to be close to that), it's going to happen to 1 out of 32 players. Is that 1 out of 32 a choker? Or is he the person who just happened to be the 1 out of 32? I argue it's the latter. For excellent books on this topic, I recommend Fooled By Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Outliers (Malcolm Gladwell).
  .
• ShoogarBear with the goods! Thanks for running the hypothesis test, I tried to and it was taking more effort than I thought it would. I'll follow up to your posts later.
  .
• ElNono, "Make over an infinite number of shots" is simply a proxy for expected 3P%. I chose that wording to try to make the question sound more mainstream, but it looks like I made it more confusing instead. Yes, players must perform within a specific timeframe, but that is irrelevant to the point I was trying to make.
  .
• Dr. John R. Brinkley, "That confidence interval with an expected range of 24 to 42% for his 3 point shooting is hilarious...as if that gives us anything useful. That range would cover the vast majority of NBA players." -- Yes, that's kind of the point. That looking at playoff 3P% will rarely give you anything useful.

[Mugen]

Sorry, hadn't come back to this thread since posting it, but here's my brief summary of replies.

• Regarding Bonner's playoff 3P% being worse in all 5 years, if we assume it's a 50% chance that someone performs worse (it has to be close to that), it's going to happen to 1 out of 32 players. Is that 1 out of 32 a choker? Or is he the person who just happened to be the 1 out of 32? I argue it's the latter. For excellent books on this topic, I recommend Fooled By Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Outliers (Malcolm Gladwell).
  .
• ShoogarBear with the goods! Thanks for running the hypothesis test, I tried to and it was taking more effort than I thought it would. I'll follow up to your posts later.
  .
• ElNono, "Make over an infinite number of shots" is simply a proxy for expected 3P%. I chose that wording to try to make the question sound more mainstream, but it looks like I made it more confusing instead. Yes, players must perform within a specific timeframe, but that is irrelevant to the point I was trying to make.
  .
• Dr. John R. Brinkley, "That confidence interval with an expected range of 24 to 42% for his 3 point shooting is hilarious...as if that gives us anything useful. That range would cover the vast majority of NBA players." -- Yes, that's kind of the point. That looking at playoff 3P% will rarely give you anything useful.

Kill yourself.

[slick'81]

any 1 who uses stats to argue bonners worth should die tbh

[Paranoid Pop]

Drz is a certified relative of Bonner, probably his mom who is a teacher.

[diego]

Or is he the person who just happened to be the 1 out of 32? I argue it's the latter.

looking at playoff 3P% will rarely give you anything useful.

looking at it that way, with a 50% chance of being better or worse, that means 16 other players shoot better in the PO. Wouldnt it be better to have one of those 16, than one of the other 16? remember the objective is to win in the PO


and for PO 3p%, it gives something very useful, the 3p% in the PO. it is factual information. i would argue that the opposite is true- very rarely does it not reflect a player's ability, ESPECIALLY if that player is a 3 pt specialist.

[baseline bum]

Ginger got passing up shots again. The Spurs should just start running back on defense every time redhead puts the ball on the floor.

[pjjrfan]

Bonner is the guy who we kept instead of Scola
Pisses me off I think that 90 % of our posters take it for granted that bonner is going to choke in the playoffs why don't the coaches see this?

[O.J. Simpson]

Great thread.