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1 in 5 chance is low, no matter what you call it. Are we trying to define "negligible" ?
Who's claiming its negligible?
1 in 5 chance is low, no matter what you call it. Are we trying to define "negligible" ?
Its not like this Silvers first go around. Its not like he's the only one in the game either. I really doubt intrade outperformed Silver in the past two elections but I honestly am not sure.
"While that Intrade gap may seem insurmountable for Romney, stranger things have happened. And if it does happen, the site will updating the odds along the way — just as the payouts are constantly updated in horse racing, right up until the race begins.
Unlike horse racing though, Intrade’s participants aren’t necessarily stuck with a bad bet should things sour between now and post time.
Just like the stock market, wagers on an Obama or Romney victory can be bought or sold at any point between now and Nov. 6. Like any stock, those shares may be sold for a loss or a gain as their market value changes. But, it may be possible for a bettor to cut his or her losses early (or lock in a gain) if public opinion starts to shift over the next four weeks.
But here’s the key takeaway — whoever Intrade has as the favorite on Monday, Nov. 5, is stunningly likely to be your next president."
http://investorplace.com/investorpol...a-romney-2012/
AND
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=6446
There wasn't any GOP outrage towards Silver like there is now when he predicted they'd take over the house in 2010. He's also someone who's gone out of way to give fair responses to people who question his statistical methods when they present real arguments....the problem is the Republicans angry at him are too stupid to even understand the stats/math he uses, so they won't be making any valid arguments against them anytime soon.
" Republicans angry at him are too stupid to even understand the stats/math he uses"
The core Repugs base is white men with no education. The world is very confusing and threatening for them, so free-floating anger is their main defense. I'm Mad As , Ergo Sum
has LibTron defeated ignignokt yet?
Hey Ignignokt!
No, his stupid ass defeated itself
Nate just tapped yo ass, .
tenx!
one thing and you gtown have in common? You often defeat yourselves.
Good to know.
Wrong again.
Nate has his foot square in a lot of pundits asses tbh.
"Horse, with a round fundament, why does it emit a square excrement?"
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