NBA: NBA ATS Picks

[Ghazi]

Wolves +3.5 win.. 16-10 ytd

leans tomorrow:

Raptors -3.5 - The team's played better with Alan Anderson. It seems Bargnani/Lowry not playing are addition by subtraction, especially on the defensive end. Raptors are one of the best "bad" teams at home, sporting a net of +3.3 per 100 possessions so far this year, which qualifies as average. Davis is out for the Magic.. not too big a deal, but the 2nd leading scorer on a team already starving for points? Nicholson/McRoberts can probably fill his role to some extent, but it makes a difference.

Wizards +6 - Detroit basically has no home court advantage and it should be treated almost as if it's a neutral site game... and Pistons may not be good enough to spot the Wizards 6 points in that spot. Cartier Martin/Nene make the Wizards a better team... Beal being hurt again is a case of addition by subtraction with improved defense. It seems injuries to young players that put up nice numbers can end up improving teams at times, since young players are typically horrible defensively. Both teams are lousy, but I'm not sure the Wizards are lousy enough to spot 6 points and absolutely have a chance at a SU victory. Value of Wizards also hurt due to a 2-7 record in OT games/games decided by 4 or less.

Spurs -14 v Hornets - I hate swallowing a lot of points, but quite frankly, this line "should" be 16-18.. and the Spurs depth means that even while resting they can keep their foot on the gas. I've watched Hornets v Wolves and Lakers.. Howard/Pekovic destroyed their interior defense... if Duncan feels like it, he can have a huge game..glaring bad stat for New Orleans... they allow 40% from beyond the arc and are 26th in opponents 3 pt rate... teams can get looks at 3s against this team and make them.. great positive for the Spurs. Will look and see whose playing, but I might be comfortable laying 14 points here. While it seems like Davis is a huge impact for the Hornets, their defense is downright atrocious when he's on the court.. bright future but negligible impact at this point in his career. Forecasts say the Spurs will win this game by 20+ points with the big 3 producing big time and 10+ 3 pointers made with a high %.

[Ghazi]

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