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the question about splitter is how long his contract will be for
I think the idea in giving Ginobili a 3rd year is obviously have enough room to resign Splitter and Jack or a FA, and still be below the tax.
Adding a 3rd year will allow a below MLE contract, lets say Ginobili gets a 16 millions two year contract, that would take out 8 millons on average each year, giving him a with a parcially guaranteed 3rd year allows the Spurs to make a frontload deal starting at 7 millions and decreasing.
Ideally you give him a 7, 6.5 and 50% guaranteed 5 millions (that´s the 2.5 millions that would complete the 16 million 2 year contract).
the question about splitter is how long his contract will be for
The only argument for him not being worth $7M is his lack of durability (and maybe minutes, but that's a coach's decision). As bad as he's looked (by his standards) this season, he's still got the 26th best PER in the league (around 20th for much of the season) and the 18th best WS/48 (around 10th for much of the season). You look at who's around him in those categories and almost without fail, they make significantly more than that and of the ones who don't, only two (Koufos, Hickson) are not on a rookie contract (Cousins, Pekovic, Splitter), don't have major character question marks (Blatche) or don't play relatively sparingly (B. Wright).
I still wouldn't be surprised if this more of an off season than it is decline related (this season could end up being a reversal from last, where he played out of his mind in the regular season and struggled in the playoffs). There's been too many recent examples of veteran stars being written off, only to bounce back. Besides, he was outstanding in the Olympics and before his last injury, he was trending towards that level again.
The Olympics is a big factor, but I think you made the point in your first sentence. Durability. The guy is playing less than 24 minutes and has missed 13 games. In terms of what he gives you when he's on the court he is probably still easily worth $8m, but if we're being realistic his minutes are only going to go down from here and thats a big salary for a guy who can't give you big minutes.
I'm assuming PER doesn't take minutes in to account? Looking at Manu and Timmy's per 36 numbers they are still elite, but they wouldn't be if they were actually playing 36 minutes per night and not getting rest after tough stretches (e.g 4 in 5 nights).
Like I say, if Manu gets $8m this summer I won't be mad, he helped bring the Spurs 3 les and deserves to get paid, but for what he can actually bring to this team I don't think he justifies such a high salary.
Let's wait until the Playoffs before saying he's unworthy, tbh.
Manu never really was that durable earlier in his career, either, tbh. He's only played 30+ MPG twice in his career (31.0 in 07-08 and 30.3 in 10-11). The rest of his career has been mid- to upper-20s, with the exception of his 20.7 MPG in his rookie year).
He was playing like a ing All Star before the hamstring tweaked two times.
I've watched most Spurs game this year, and while he has had some good games I don't think he has put an all-star level stretch together this year.
Then you haven't watched.
Resign him for two years 10 million. We have to start thinking about bringing in future talent and we can't if we keep holding on to older players.
Judging from his recent play, Manu is dumber than ever.
I honestly wouldn't mind seeing Manu retire this year..he's gonna end up tarnishing a god damn great career by sticking around too long..
I don't know. I wouldn't mind seeing Manu in a Fisher type role. Grant Hill, Juwan Howard kinda deal. But pay 8 figures for that??? I don't know...
Feel free to enlighten me. When this year has Manu put together a streak of even 10-15 games of all star level play?
I'm a huge Manu fan but to say he's played at all-star level this year, even for stretches, is untrue IMO.
for every great manu game he has 2 games
Other people have tried to use that same argument, and it doesn't really hold water. Ginobili's production alone suggests he's worth about $6-7 Million. Even though he's put up good per-minute numbers and advanced stats, players in his category (old All-Star-caliber guards) just aren't worth more than that on the market. Players who got similar deals to what Ginobili can expect had more win-shares. Adding to that is that these players had strung together multiple seasons of consistent, high-level play. Not only does Ginobili miss a lot of games, but he also takes a long time to get back in rhythm. This leads to long sub-par stretches. You add in the missed games, and it gets even worse.
Honestly, I wouldn't really want to pay him more than $6 Million a year. Contracts are supposed to be about what a player can be expected to do over the life of the deal, and Ginobili is trending downward in terms of what the Spurs can realistically expect from him each game. It won't be long now until he starts getting (or should start, in the very least) a minority share of the shooting-guard minutes. If he's going to need elite players next to him on the bench to be productive, his value to the Spurs is going to drop considerably.
EDIT: In looking at examples of deals given out to players in the same class as Ginboili, I found that Ray Allen compared pretty favorably. Manu's PER blew Allen's out of the water, but Allen had more win-shares and generally higher gross stats. Per 36 stats were pretty even. I think Ginobili should get a similar contract to the one the Celtics offered to Allen ($12M/2 with a no-trade clause). I guess I should note that Allen was insulted by the offer and that it was one of the main reasons he left for Miami. Let's hope Ginobili would be more understanding.
Last edited by Chinook; 03-21-2013 at 10:58 PM.
The truth is your whole argument falls appart because while you said a contract should reflect "what a player can be expected to do over the life of the deal" you are judging Ginobili on what he did these recent months given that if you consider his last 3 years he has been deserving of much more than 6 million a year, per league standards.
If you consider, and that´s another discussion, that this Ginobili (clearly in a slump and coming out of a serie of inujuries after playing all sumer long) is what you will get, then fine, 6 millions, but anything above it, will be more than six, and i think this will not be the Manu you´ll get over two or three more years. I think he has already adapted his game a lot and can continue to do it to perform at high level.
Manu is at the end of his career he made his money and Splitter is at his beginning and will want and will get paid a lot more then Manu. Yes, teams will line up to get Splitter, if the Spurs around and don't sign him to a decent contract we might have to start rebuilding next year.
No let SJAX go he has the heart but he is the opposite of Neal no offense at all can not put the ball in the whole.
Duncan is 4th?
Him and that national team all year round would point to his MPG, he has aged himself fully from that IMO and he did it for his country so cool (I never liked it because me not an Argie fan nor care but loved when he won the Gold!). I wish he would have stayed more just with the Spurs and took full summers off, but he is a loyal dude, he is who he is. Manu for LIFE!!!!!!!
Give him the Wes Welker deal. 2 years 12 million
If the 14pts and 5ast per game in roughly 25-28 minutes per game is not really performing on the court then I'm not sure what you are looking for from a 35yr old Manu(30 games prior to his hamstring injury).
To be clear, when making my assessment, I looked at Ginobili's production for the last 4.5 years. So that time span includes some Super Manu as well as some Glassobili. When it comes down to his market value, I compared him with players who were in similar situations as he is now. Those players earned about a million dollars per year on their next deal for every win-share they averaged over the previous three seasons. So players like Nash in 2010 and Kidd in 2009 got bigger deals because, honestly, they were more impactful than Ginobili, and they certainly didn't miss nearly as many games.
If I were to adjust my model (and I used that out of a lack of a better term, not because it's some awesome set of equations or anything) to include just these last three seasons, Ginobili would be worth less than $6 Million. He's been on a down trend for a few years now, and while he can be productive when put in his element and when his minutes are limited, that has to factor into his earning power. Add in that his "adapted game" seems unable to carry a bench unit, and that hurts his value even more.
Sorry if you were hoping that I was just caught up in the moment. I'm not. There are arguments that can be made that I am wrong, but they're not really based on looking at his numbers before this season. Simply put, you can't pay a player for what he has done; you pay him for what you think he will do. Manu's injury history and the increasing trend of him having slow starts makes him more and more a part-time player. To act like that's easily worth more than the MLE is biased, in my opinion. Ginobili may find a way to still be productive, but that doesn't mean that the Spurs should expect him to play at a generally higher level than he has for the last three seasons.
His playoff performance can certainly move the arrow, though. As Bruno said, if he does really well in the post-season, he can bring expected contract numbers up a couple of million. Likewise, if he breaks down in the playoffs, his value can tumble.
Last edited by Chinook; 03-22-2013 at 07:35 AM.
I may have exaggerated a bit when I said Manu hadn't really performed, but I see no reason to believe that he will have better production, fewer injuries or be able to play more minutes in the coming 2 years.
His injuries this year have been the most worrying. They haven't been accidents like turning an ankle or from collisions, they have been things like back spasms and pulling a hamstring when there is nobody around. Those are the kind of injuries you get as a player gets older and they will keep coming.
If Manu had delivered 14 and 5 and played a full 82 game season I would agree he is easily worth the $8m people are suggesting, but the fact is he can't play 82 games and going forward that is only going to get worse rather than better. Factor in the games he will miss, the games he will underperform when coming back from injury and the likely need to reduce his minutes even further, I think $5m/year is about what he is worth.
Again like I say if he get's $8m I won't be mad, he probably deserves even more than that for what he has done for the Spurs over the years, but I don't think he is worth that much in terms of what he can give us over an 82 game season.
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