Bleacher Reports-Spurs 2013 Free Agent Guide/Capology

[Chinook]

Can they renounce his rights and then resign him later? Or does than not apply if they agree to a vet min. deal? If so then yes that could work but Captain & Manu's [massive] cap holds need to be resolved with quickness. I believe its 150% of their previous salary. So Captains actually would be $15 Million.

Yes. They only need his rights if they plan on using a Bird exception to re-sign him. If he got a minimum deal, they'd be using the minimum exception instead. Or they could use the room exception to give him a little more than that.

A couple of tweaks to your scenario can leave the Spurs with even more money to use to bring in players:

--Wait to re-sign Jack until the end of the off-season.
--Only give Splitter his qualifying offer. This is guaranteed to happen for at least the first couple of days of free agency. According to ShamSports (pretty much the best site there is for salary numbers), that hold would be $7.493 Million dollars. Using that instead of the $10 Million would give the Spurs a good deal of extra cap space.
--Re-sign Ginobili for about a million less per year. If you have to give him the third year with a partial guarantee, so be it.
--Finally, assume the cap is going to be about $65 Million. I don't know what you assumed before, but that's looking like a pretty accurate figure.

From looking at my really rough calculations, that should leave the Spurs with about $9.5 Million to spend on a free agent, while preserving the room exception and still being able to re-sign Jack. If the cap is at $62 Million, that still allows the Spurs to beat the MLE and to using the room exception.

Here's a link to Sham's site:http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...ries/spurs.jsp

[cd021]

Yes. They only need his rights if they plan on using a Bird exception to re-sign him. If he got a minimum deal, they'd be using the minimum exception instead. Or they could use the room exception to give him a little more than that.

A couple of tweaks to your scenario can leave the Spurs with even more money to use to bring in players:

--Wait to re-sign Jack until the end of the off-season.
--Only give Splitter his qualifying offer. This is guaranteed to happen for at least the first couple of days of free agency. According to ShamSports (pretty much the best site there is for salary numbers), that hold would be $7.493 Million dollars. Using that instead of the $10 Million would give the Spurs a good deal of extra cap space.
--Re-sign Ginobili for about a million less per year. If you have to give him the third year with a partial guarantee, so be it.
--Finally, assume the cap is going to be about $65 Million. I don't know what you assumed before, but that's looking like a pretty accurate figure.

From looking at my really rough calculations, that should leave the Spurs with about $9.5 Million to spend on a free agent, while preserving the room exception and still being able to re-sign Jack. If the cap is at $62 Million, that still allows the Spurs to beat the MLE and to using the room exception.

Here's a link to Sham's site:http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...ries/spurs.jsp

You had till the $65 [Hypothetical] Million Cap. The Cap was frozen following the CBA so its at 58 this season, I don't get why it would jump 7 million. At most I'd think $61 Million. Though I had been using this seasons cap as reference (I don't know why i did that, though it didn't effect my numbers because the spurs are going to be over anyway).


Splitter is going to get payed. Hibbert Got a max deal. Splitter is just as good per minute as Hibbert and has a "all star P.E.R". Teams with Cap Houston, Dallas, Portland, Cleveland, Orlando etc, could be players in Splitter. Dallas needs a big man as they are currently renting 2 bigs.

anything less than a 4 year $40 Million deal would be surprising. My Manu $8 million figure was at the high end something like a 3 Year $21 Million (with 3.5 million guaranteed in the 3 year) could save the spurs an additional $1 million.

$59 million is about the lowest our salary could get prior to resigning Splitter & Manu. IMO.

[Chinook]

You had till the $65 [Hypothetical] Million Cap. The Cap was frozen following the CBA so its at 58 this season, I don't get why it would jump 7 million. At most I'd think $61 Million. Though I had been using this seasons cap as reference (I don't know why i did that, though it didn't effect my numbers because the spurs are going to be over anyway).

Mainly because of the big contracts the NBA and some teams signed this season. The cap is a proportion of all league revenue, and since revenue increased so much, the cap will jump (or the player will sue over it not jumping. Stern said at the beginning of the season that the cap could jump up to $70 Million next season. Here's what media cap guru Larry Coon had to say on that:

Larry Coon

I’m trying to get to the bottom of Stern’s claim right now. Since some of the principal sources of revenue (national TV) were already set, the league already knew about things like the Lakers’ & Celtics’ new TV deals, and other revenue streams (such as ticket sales) have limited growth potential, I’m not sure where all this new revenue comes from. The league was predicting $4.3 billion as late as July.
That said, the players get 50% of revenues, plus or minus 60.5% percent of the amount by which revenues exceed or fall short of forecasts. The forecast for 2012-13 is $4.308 billion, so a $5 billion BRI would guarantee the players $2.5 billion plus 60.5% $692 million ($419 million) for a total of $2.919 billion. That’s an insane amount.
That would work out to a cap of about $73 million, and luxury tax around $88.2 million. Again, this seems insanely high.

Splitter is going to get payed. Hibbert Got a max deal. Splitter is just as good per minute as Hibbert and has a "all star P.E.R". Teams with Cap Houston, Dallas, Portland, Cleveland, Orlando etc, could be players in Splitter. Dallas needs a big man as they are currently renting 2 bigs.

Splitter may get a max deal (I don't know if the Spurs would match, though), but that doesn't affect his cap hold. He'll only count for $7.5 Million until he officially signs a contract. This means the Spurs are free to work around using his cap hold only until then. I can imagine you feel that Splitter will get signed straight away, but that's not true. There is a period of time at the beginning of each off-season when players can work out deals with other teams but cannot officially sign. This gives the Spurs plenty of time to get a deal set up with a free agent before Splitter can officially sign an offer sheet from a team to mess up the Spurs' cap.

Even if Splitter signed a max deal (in this scenario about $16 Million starting in year one--way too high to realistically expect Splitter to sign), the Spurs would have the space under the tax to match, although just barely.

My Manu $8 million figure was at the high end something like a 3 Year $21 Million (with 3.5 million guaranteed in the 3 year) could save the spurs an additional $1 million.

That would make his deal essentially $17.5/2, which is higher than you previously wanted. I know that that may be the price of getting Ginobili to wait, but think you could get away with giving Manu $6.1 Million in his first season, $6.4 Million in the second and guaranteeing $3.5 Million in the third. That saves even more room, and it gives Ginobili his $8 Million average.

$59 million is about the lowest our salary could get prior to resigning Splitter & Manu. IMO

What do you mean? You said in your OP that the Spurs would only have $42 Million committed before signing Ginobili and Splitter.

[Richie]

I have the exact Cap Holds courtsesy of Hoopsworld.com

Manu Ginobili-$19.1
Stephen Jackson-$15.0
Splitter-$9.6

The Spurs could get this resolved within a week or so during the off season. Then they should have something like $60.5 Million committed to 13 players ( based on my aforementioned estimates above)

Splitters cap hold is $7.5m

[vander]

10m for splitter would be a ripoff, spurs FO better be smarter than that.

I'd give splitter 4 years 35 mill
and manu 2 years 9 mill

[TrainOfThought5]

if we gave manu that deal and he plays as much as he did this year, as well as he did this year, he would instantly be worse value than RJ.

[Kidd K]

Ginobili should absolutely take a pay cut. He's missed so much time, he should be playing for dirt cheap at this point if he has any conscience.

As for that other stuff, I don't think the Spurs are out looking to sign Speights, Aminu, etc. Definitely not Blatche either because he didn't want to come here pretty recently. Dumb thought the Nets would be better than the Spurs. I certainly don't want him now.

Spurs are more likely to use a good portion of their extra money re-signing Tiago Splitter, who's finally fit well into the team and is now able to play properly alongside Duncan. Last year they looked terrible together, but this year it's been a very nice thing to see.

I wouldn't mind bringing in Jermaine O'Neal though if he doesn't mind playing a little less minutes than he's used to, and doesn't mind not getting paid as much as he could possibly get. He'd be a nice 3rd/4th big.

That's a weird article. I pretty much disagree with all of the guy's numbers. If the Spurs went into the off-season with this plan, I'd be very disappointed.

Also, why does he have Jack on the books for $1.4 Million? Even if the Spurs plan to re-sign him for that much, he should be in the same section with Ginobili and Splitter.

It's bleacher report. Despite being bought up, it's still written by fans, not experts with insider info or any real experience with these things.

[cd021]

Mainly because of the big contracts the NBA and some teams signed this season. The cap is a proportion of all league revenue, and since revenue increased so much, the cap will jump (or the player will sue over it not jumping. Stern said at the beginning of the season that the cap could jump up to $70 Million next season. Here's what media cap guru Larry Coon had to say on that:

I stand corrected. A Cap of $65 + million would be fantastic for the spurs and more importantly the luxury tax jumping by more than $10 Million. That would seem to counter productive to the NBA teams could spend $80 million and still get away with out paying luxury tax.


Splitter may get a max deal (I don't know if the Spurs would match, though), but that doesn't affect his cap hold. He'll only count for $7.5 Million until he officially signs a contract. This means the Spurs are free to work around using his cap hold only until then. I can imagine you feel that Splitter will get signed straight away, but that's not true. There is a period of time at the beginning of each off-season when players can work out deals with other teams but cannot officially sign. This gives the Spurs plenty of time to get a deal set up with a free agent before Splitter can officially sign an offer sheet from a team to mess up the Spurs' cap.

Splitters cap hold is $9.8 Million according to Hoop World (http://www.hoopsworld.com/san-antonio-spurs-team-salary) though that maybe wrong, they may have been going under the presumption that Splitter will only receive his qualifying offer as his salary for next season. $7.5 is right, I think). I didn't mean he would get a max deal, I meant that talented bigs make upwards of $10 million in the NBA. I'd expect somewhere between 4 years $40-45 million). The Same can be said for Splitter, in that time he can receive an offer from a team with cap and once that July 1st-6th negotiation period passes he could sing an offer sheet and force the spurs hand. After he signs the offer sheet he can't be [sign &] traded meaning the spurs would have to pay of decline to pay him. It would make since for the Spurs to make him top priority over a free agent who may not even sign with the Spurs.

Even if Splitter signed a max deal (in this scenario about $16 Million starting in year one--way too high to realistically expect Splitter to sign), the Spurs would have the space under the tax to match, although just barely.



That would make his deal essentially $17.5/2, which is higher than you previously wanted. I know that that may be the price of getting Ginobili to wait, but think you could get away with giving Manu $6.1 Million in his first season, $6.4 Million in the second and guaranteeing $3.5 Million in the third. That saves even more room, and it gives Ginobili his $8 Million average.

Saving $400,00 and 300,00 is really drop in the bucket. It wouldn't help that much to the spurs. In my deal, he starts at $6.6 with each season raising 7 percent as with typical contracts

1st Season-$6.6
+7% =460,000
2nd Season-$7.06
+7 %=490,000
3rd Season-$7.55 (Partially guaranteed for $3.5 million or 46% guaranteed)

What do you mean? You said in your OP that the Spurs would only have $42 Million committed before signing Ginobili and Splitter.

I misspoke I meant $59 million after Manu & Splitters (presumed) contracts are added that would be for 13 players ( Not including Bonner, Blair, & Neal) and including our 1st round pick (who for all we know could be a draft and stash, doubtful but its happened in the 1st round before)

[Chinook]

Splitters cap hold is $9.8 Million according to Hoop World (http://www.hoopsworld.com/san-antonio-spurs-team-salary) though that maybe wrong, they may have been going under the presumption that Splitter will only receive his qualifying offer as his salary for next season. $7.5 is right, I think). I didn't mean he would get a max deal, I meant that talented bigs make upwards of $10 million in the NBA. I'd expect somewhere between 4 years $40-45 million).

By rule, Splitter's cap hold is 190 percent of his previous salary. That means his hold is $7.4 Million this off-season. His qualifying offer is only 125 percent of this season's salary, which ends up being $4.9 Million. Hoopsworld is assuming a hold of 250 percent, which is the hold for players coming off rookie-scale contracts. Splitter is coming off his rookie deal, but he waited three years to get off the scale. Therefore, he'd only have the $7.5 Million, and not the $9.6 Million.

The Same can be said for Splitter, in that time he can receive an offer from a team with cap and once that July 1st-6th negotiation period passes he could sing an offer sheet and force the spurs hand. After he signs the offer sheet he can't be [sign &] traded meaning the spurs would have to pay of decline to pay him. It would make since for the Spurs to make him top priority over a free agent who may not even sign with the Spurs.

But the Spurs could already get a deal in place before then. So even if Splitter were determined to sign the first offer sheet someone gave him, the Spurs would have five days to agree to a deal with their free agent (and Ginobili). Then, as soon as free agency officially begun, the Spurs could re-sign Ginobili, renounce all of their other free agents besides Splitter and maybe Neal and sign their target free agent before Splitter can force their hands. No matter what, the Spurs would have three days after Splitter signed the offer sheet to match, so it's not like he could sign so fast the Spurs would have no time to fax their other deals into the league office.

Also, the Spurs can agree to a deal with Splitter in that five-day span, agree to a deal with another free agent, and then just officially sign the other free agent a couple of minutes before re-signing Splitter on that first day. They don't have to ignore him for them to take advantage of the cap.

I forgot all about the 7.5-percent increase the Spurs can use for Ginobili. When you factor that in, it's not really a negligible difference. That amount (about 600k after changing my numbers) is enough space sign a second-rounder to a longer than two-year deal. I get what you mean about the grand scheme though.

One thing I wanted to point out as an FYI about salary increases: The increase is a flat amount taken by a percentage of the first-year salary only. So if Ginobili were to get that deal you described, his second-year-to-third-year increase would also be $460k. I know it doesn't matter in this case, since that final year is just a way to spread the money around, but it may end up being more important when looking at future contracts.

[cd021]

10m for splitter would be a ripoff, spurs FO better be smarter than that.

I'd give splitter 4 years 35 mill
and manu 2 years 9 mill

9 million a year for twilight and its a good deal but $10 million is a ripoff...Mind explaining?

Manu signing for 4.5 million a season for 2 years...P.E.R is 19. He is worth 7 million a season at the very least.

[cd021]

By rule, Splitter's cap hold is 190 percent of his previous salary. That means his hold is $7.4 Million this off-season. His qualifying offer is only 125 percent of this season's salary, which ends up being $4.9 Million. Hoopsworld is assuming a hold of 250 percent, which is the hold for players coming off rookie-scale contracts. Splitter is coming off his rookie deal, but he waited three years to get off the scale. Therefore, he'd only have the $7.5 Million, and not the $9.6 Million.




But the Spurs could already get a deal in place before then. So even if Splitter were determined to sign the first offer sheet someone gave him, the Spurs would have five days to agree to a deal with their free agent (and Ginobili). Then, as soon as free agency officially begun, the Spurs could re-sign Ginobili, renounce all of their other free agents besides Splitter and maybe Neal and sign their target free agent before Splitter can force their hands. No matter what, the Spurs would have three days after Splitter signed the offer sheet to match, so it's not like he could sign so fast the Spurs would have no time to fax their other deals into the league office.

Also, the Spurs can agree to a deal with Splitter in that five-day span, agree to a deal with another free agent, and then just officially sign the other free agent a couple of minutes before re-signing Splitter on that first day. They don't have to ignore him for them to take advantage of the cap.

I forgot all about the 7.5-percent increase the Spurs can use for Ginobili. When you factor that in, it's not really a negligible difference. That amount (about 600k after changing my numbers) is enough space sign a second-rounder to a longer than two-year deal. I get what you mean about the grand scheme though.

One thing I wanted to point out as an FYI about salary increases: The increase is a flat amount taken by a percentage of the first-year salary only. So if Ginobili were to get that deal you described, his second-year-to-third-year increase would also be $460k. I know it doesn't matter in this case, since that final year is just a way to spread the money around, but it may end up being more important when looking at future contracts.

You're becoming the ST version of Larry Coon. Good stuff.

[vander]

9 million a year for twilight and its a good deal but $10 million is a ripoff...Mind explaining?

Manu signing for 4.5 million a season for 2 years...P.E.R is 19. He is worth 7 million a season at the very least.

PER, first, in order for that to matter, manu has to be on the court, 2nd, manu comes off the bench, good chunk of his minutes comes against the opposing 2nd unit. on court/off court >> PER tbh

and you're right on the first part, 4 years 35m would still be a bit much. I was thinking something that started at 6-7 mil, so more like 32m total I guess

[ChumpDumper]

The thing is Manu is valuable to the franchise beyond his actual play on court. He'll still get paid.

[Chinook]

The thing is Manu is valuable to the franchise beyond his actual play on court. He'll still get paid.

Won't get paid more than Duncan, though. Since Tim is making $10 Million as a greatest player in franchise history and still the second-best player, Ginobili is looking at at most $8 Million a year. Ginobili himself hinted at being okay with a major pay reduction.

[ChumpDumper]

Won't get paid more than Duncan, though. Since Tim is making $10 Million as a greatest player in franchise history and still the second-best player, Ginobili is looking at at most $8 Million a year. Ginobili himself hinted at being okay with a major pay reduction.

No one said he would be paid more than Duncan.

[Chinook]

No one said he would be paid more than Duncan.

I know. I just said that to show his expected range. It seems realistic to expect the first year of his contract to be between $6- and $8 Million. If that's the case, the Spurs will have a lot of room to work with this off-season.

[exstatic]

if we gave manu that deal and he plays as much as he did this year, as well as he did this year, he would instantly be worse value than RJ.

He's really only played poorly for about 6-8 weeks. People forget, but he was in the discussion for ASG reserves. Even with his poor play, his PER is still around 19 last I checked, which is borderline AS.

Manu will certainly be fine by next year. I just hope that hammy doesn't go out again THIS year. That is probably what is limiting his play.

[TrainOfThought5]

He's really only played poorly for about 6-8 weeks. People forget, but he was in the discussion for ASG reserves. Even with his poor play, his PER is still around 19 last I checked, which is borderline AS.

Manu will certainly be fine by next year. I just hope that hammy doesn't go out again THIS year. That is probably what is limiting his play.

i love gino but expecting an injury prone guy nicknamed el contusion to get healthier as he gets older is unrealistic, tbqh. his minutes are at a career low. his missed+poorly played games > His healthy+well played games. which is what happens in your mid thirties.

[cd021]

i love gino but expecting an injury prone guy nicknamed el contusion to get healthier as he gets older is unrealistic, tbqh. his minutes are at a career low. his missed+poorly played games > His healthy+well played games. which is what happens in your mid thirties.

At 33 he started and played 77 games averaging 30 minutes and 17ppg. He has injury prone seasons, like last year. This year he has actually been relatively healthy considering he hasn't missed major time.

[cd021]

PER, first, in order for that to matter, manu has to be on the court, 2nd, manu comes off the bench, good chunk of his minutes comes against the opposing 2nd unit. on court/off court >> PER tbh

and you're right on the first part, 4 years 35m would still be a bit much. I was thinking something that started at 6-7 mil, so more like 32m total I guess

Manu doesn't just play against 2nd unit players. Any starter who plays well over 30 minutes means that he is playing against opposing starters for roughly 1/3 of his playing time. I don't understand how someone who plays 24 mpg can play all of his minutes against opposing bench players that clearly isn't correct.

If you thing Tiago is getting a 4 year $ 32 year deal ( 8 million annually) thats pretty wishful thinking 10.5 pts 6 rpg 57% FG from a Center playing well under 30 mpg (24mpg) for a le contender. McGee got a 4 Year deal for $40 million. So did Dre Jordan. Hibbert got a Max Deal, none of these players are head and shoulders above Splitter. Hibbert is the only player who is probably better. His floor is probably 10 million.

[TheGoldStandard]

Splitter is going to command a 12 mil deal for 4 years if they want to keep him and someone will want to overpay.

[superjames1992]

We need to make a deal to bring Beno Udrih back to San Antonio. We haven't won a le since he departed...

[TheGoldStandard]

We need to make a deal to bring Beno Udrih back to San Antonio. We haven't won a le since he departed...

Don't forget Nazr Mohammad

[superjames1992]

Don't forget Nazr Mohammad

Yep, him too. Think we can bring Rasho out of retirement, too (though we did win in 2007 without him)?