Timmy needs to get on the block and abuse that walking known as Bosh e.. Tim will have a huge finals
Book it..
Before the playoffs, I was giving Heat a 80/20 edge over Spurs in a potential finals.
I'm tweaking it to 70/30 for Miami because, unlike what I was assuming, Spurs will be fresh for the finals and there are question marks around Wade health.
Spurs have a shot but Miami are heavily favorites. LeBron is just too good.
The Spurs look focused, healthy and destined. I feel that they will beat the Heat!
I am going for 50-50 between the Spurs & the Heat. While the Heat has the best player in the series; I think the Spurs have the No 2, No 3 in the series.
The Spurs' bigs will play a vital role, IMO. And that I think will provide them the edge.
This would be an enormous upset. I wonder how the Spurs will matchup with the Heat's smallball lineup of Bosh at the 5 and LeBron at the 4. God I hate the thought of Tim out 20 feet from the basket guarding Bosh, but no way in you can put him on James. Do you stay put on Wade, Allen, Battier, etc. and possibly let James throw a 50-spot? Do you make everyone else beat you by going broke for the head of the snake like in 07? Obviously very different when Pavlovic is now Dwyane Wade, Ilgauskas is now Chris Bosh, Boobie Gibson is now Ray Allen, Donyell Marshall is now Shane Battier, etc. Assuming no injuries, this is a 66 win team that's probably better than their record that the Spurs are facing. The order of the day is going to be legendary series from Tim and Tony and then hot three point shooting, plus a Ginobili vintage performance or two mixed in. Can't wait to see how it all goes down.
Spurs sweep into the finals and are 12-2 in the much tougher West and most people here are scared of the Heat..
Grow some balls guys..
If the Spurs can solve the LeBron post up riddle, then I like their chances. The Lebron in the post makes me a little uncomfortable.
The reason people praise Heat for their defense is because they excel in one-on-one defense: Mario Chalmers is a great defensive PG getting steals, Chris Andersen is a fairly good 1 on 1 defensive player getting blocks. Lebron and Wade are respectively good at one-on-one defense for the person they are guarding. Shane Battier is probably the only person that plays rotation defense well. This means that Heat will punish teams who have superstars or a go to guy. The Spurs have a great offensive rotation and everybody is a threat to score. Which is why I think the Spurs can potentially overcome the Heat
I believe in miracles
well
I want to believe in miracles
Miami plays smart on both ends of the court, they have the best player in basketball and a really good big 3, smart role players surrounding them, and some great guys to bring off the bench. It would be stupid to underrate Miami even though the Spurs are playing really well.
Keys to any possible victory:
Defensively, Splitter has to be able to keep Bosh contained, Green has to be able to handle a less-than-100% Wade, and Duncan has to be able to cheat off of Haslem or whoever to back up Leonard when LeBron posts him up or drives. Leonard and Diaw aren't going to be able to stop LeBron even with a double team backing them up, but they have to try to keep him from completely embarrassing them.
Offensively, Parker has to force Miami to choose between him ripping them apart on penetration and hitting the open 3 when they bring enough help to stop him. Duncan and Splitter have to take their size advantage over Bosh and Haslem and really pound them. We have two strong big men, and at least one of them should always have an offensive mismatch in the post -- if we can't make Miami regret their lack of size, we can't win this series. If Manu can bring it this series, that will also give us a great opportunity. I'm not sure how much he has left in the tank right now, but if he has anything, his unpredictability is a huge asset against a Miami defense that is so fundamentally sound.
Miami's going to win at least one game this series that's going to cause a bunch of the doubters to quit on this team -- like Golden State, only worse.
As I mentioned above, I thin the Spurs have a lot of matchups we can take advantage of, but even with that, we're playing an incredible team that is sure to be the favorite going in. This series has a chance to be f'ing legendary. We need to win one in Miami, two of three at home, and one of the last 2 in Miami to get it done. Spurs in 7.
Manu better raise his game.
Two wins in Miami? That would be beyond epic.
Assuming that Parker continues to play out of his mind, there are two factors left:
1) Ginobili -As far as I'm concerned he's the real X-Factor. He has to have an above average series for the Spurs to have a chance. I don't really like what I've seen from him thus far though. I'm doubting if he has it in him to string together 4-5 solid games anymore.
2) The three point shooters (Neal, Leonard, Green and Bonner) - They must hit at a high rate. The GSW and MEM series have me a bit concerned that they are, on the whole, in a nadir. They've gotta shoot much better if we are to have a chance.
The only other thing I would add is that Timmy/Tiago have to play Bosh, Haslem and Birdman to a standoff each game. We probably need around 28 and 17 from them.
It's all dependent on our bench play IMHO. If our bench steps up, we can win this in 6. Manu is gonna have to get out of whatever funk he is in as well in these next 10 days.
While this is true, I've been seeing more hero ball than crisp ball movement as of late.
Parker dropped 18 dimes in Game 3. When they focus on stopping penetration, we pass to the perimeter. When they stay home and shut down the passes, we attack off the drive. That's how it works.
Spurs in 6.
I'm not so sure that he can anymore. Timmy is not at the same level that he was to start the season where he was destroying guys on the block. Most of it is mental, imo, so if he can shake that off and dial in, then Bosh is ed. My concern with that matchup is the pick and pop with Bosh. Either he or the guard will be open a majority of the time. It's going to be tough. Tbh I'd put Splitter on Bosh and then Duncan on either Haslem or Battier.
About 45%. Way more than I was during the season.
7/10 their interior players are a joke Haslem and Bosh? then the Birdman...Duncan is going to have a of a series
Spurs need to fire on all cylinders like they did in game 3 against the Grizzlies. That includes Manu and Duncan scoring at a good clip to open up shots for the role players. The defense needs to remain tight. Leonard will need to play the best defensive series of his career. When Manu is scoring and Duncan gets his 18 and 10, they are a hard team to guard. But without help, Parker can be shut down by the Heat. The Spurs need to play even better than the Grizzlies series to have a decent chance against the Heat.
I'm about as confident as when BSU played Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. and if the Spurs somehow win this, it will easily surpass that as the greatest sports moment/accomplishment/whatever in sports history
bunch of old guys, and their team ball, and dedication, and hard work, and strategy, etc. against the greatest talent in NBA history and his sidekick, one of the most talented dirty cheaters in NBA history... Spurs only win this in the stories that Disney buys...
Nobody has mentioned that we have the best coaching staff in the NBA by far.
Big advantage.
And the Pacers aren't done with Miami yet.
It's a FACT that we will be healthy and rested going into the NBA Finals and there's no such guarantee that the Heat will be going at all, let alone in top condition.
We can't stop, LeBron, so that's not a question.
2 big questions for me:
1) Can we make their frontcourt, which has been huge for them, nonfactors? Bosh, Birdman, and Haslem need to be completely Randolph'd this series.
2) Can we play our offensive game? They have so many weapons to throw at our guards to take us out of our element. We all know if TP gets a little bit uncomfortable it gets our offense all out of whack. Let's just hope that James, Battier, Chalmers, and Cole aren't all they're cracked up to be, and Parker can remain effective as the focal point of the offense.
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