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That one is pretty deep to make Texas...Yucatan peninsula usually knocks em down pretty good and they end up going into central Mexico.
Damn right we need the rain. At my Dad's place near Skidmore we've had one inch of rain and 8 inches of snow in almost 8 months.
That one is pretty deep to make Texas...Yucatan peninsula usually knocks em down pretty good and they end up going into central Mexico.
Well, the only thing to watch (not the only thing but the main thing) over the next week is going to be the high pressure over the east. If it strengthens into Texas the way most of the models are dictating at the moment, the storm will move into mexico and then the remenants might swing up north through Texas on the side of another high. The remenants won't bring much rain by that point, however.
But if that high develops slowly or weakly, that storm will come north. It's going to be near the yucatan in 4-5 days, and where it goes after that is still up for grabs but there is a decent chance of it coming this way.
Better to go south than north. If it goes north (Houston), we'll be on the dry side, and won't get jack in South Texas.
Don't be too sure Jack. Most in here are too young to remember Celia on Aug 3, 1970. It was on this path and made a direct hit on Corpus Christi. I lived in Corpus all my life and have seen my share of Hurricanes. In that one, it came ashore with wind gusts in excess of 175MPH. I lost the roof off my house and Corpus suffered complete destruction. No power for three weeks. I was working for SW Bell and worked for two months without a day off and those days were 18 hours long. I hope history does not repeat itself. I actually thought I was gonna die that day.
BTW, The Yucatan has jack to do with where this thing goes. It's all about airflow and currents. It's like anything else, and will take the path of least resistence.
Well I couldn't find the site, but I have seen pictures of a car carrier that sunk from either a hurricane or a collision. It was filled with vehicles and some of them managed to get washed ashore.
I know that when Volvo was shipping out their new SUV, the carrier sunk.
Damn, that's pretty crazy. I'm going to have to look that up. Sounds pretty interesting.
collision
Car carrier sinks off Singapore
A ship with 4,000 cars on board has sunk just south of Singapore after colliding with an oil tanker.
Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) said the crash took place just before midnight on Saturday.
The four Korean and 16 Filipino crew members of the MV Hyundai no 105 were rescued.
The collision left a 50m x 20m hole in the car carrier's side. The MT Kaminesan, which was carrying 279,949 tons of crude oil was towed into port.
"Prior to the collision, warnings were given to the two vessels by the MPA's vessel traffic information service. The two vessels also communicated with each other," a statement from the port authority said.
The cause of the crash is under investigation.
Singapore is one of the world's busiest ports.
Story from BBC NEWS:
2 of the world's biggest ships playing chicken? How the do you hit a supertanker OR a car carrier? Jesus! I hope these ers don't drive.
i think this is the volvo one
A Norwegian car carrier has sunk in the English Channel after colliding with a container ship in thick fog in the early hours of Saturday.
The 24 crew members from the Tricolor abandoned ship and took to lifeboats after the collision at 0130 GMT, about 30 miles (48 kilometres) east of Ramsgate, Kent.
The container ship - the Kariba, registered in the Bahamas - was severely damaged and is making for port with its crew still on board.
There are no reports of any casualties.
The Tricolor had picked up its cargo of 2,862 cars and 77 containers in Zeebrugge, Belgium, and was on its way to Southampton, said Per Ronnevig, spokesman for its owners, shipping firm Wilhelmsen Lines.
A UK coastguard spokesman said: "The car carrier quickly developed a 15 degree list and its crew abandoned the vessel."
A spokesman for the French coastguard said the crew of the Tricolor had been rescued and were "safe and sound".
The Tricolor's captain and two officers were taken on board the Kariba, which is making its way to the Belgian port of Antwerp for inspection, coastguards said.
Warship at scene
The rest of the Tricolor's crew were picked up by a tug boat and have been taken to hospital in the French port of Dunkirk.
Lloyd's Casualty Reporting Service confirmed the 49,792-ton Tricolor had sunk and the 20,829-ton Kariba had been seriously damaged.
Dover Coastguard said a Belgian warship, the Wandelaar, was in the area helping French coastguards to deal with the incident.
A UK coastguard emergency towing vessel was sent to the scene along with other tugs.
Pollution barrier
The Tricolor was initially only partly submerged because of a low tide.
But it later disappeared from view.
Mark Clark from Dover coastguard said: "The vessel is now down below the surface, it has obviously settled.
"What you can see from the surface is just the top of the lifeboat, which is fixed to the side of the vessel - she is resting on her side - and that just comes up above the waves every now and again."
UK coastguards said it was now up to the ship's owners as to what would happen to the vessel's cargo.
The incident is being managed by the French authorities. A barrier is being put up around the wreck to contain any pollution.
An inquiry will be launched by the French authorities into the cause of the accident, but immediate investigations are being hampered by the thick fog.
I think ship captains must not be the smartest people out there. I should have known that after drunk ass ran his tanker aground in Alaska, though.
Manny, I am fully aware of that and as you stated it is too early to tell. I was basing my observation on the current computer projections to centerpunch the Yucatan and watching hurricanes in the past that have done this...it's not like crossing a small island...hurricanes usually lose the strong center and top when they cross it...and most that I remember have resulted in reduced strength hurricanes/tropical storms that end up dumping torrential rains into Mexice and washing villages into the gulf...
Looking at history as a guide to the future, the last hurricane to be in this ones currrent position to hit Texas was in 1901, and the results on the others are literally all over the map..so no real prediction help there...
here is a map that shows the historical tracks...
Well, it's a good thing it's 1901 instead of 1900.
You're right about that CC. The Yucatan will weaken anything that goes over it. When you said knock it down I thought you meant make it go south, which it won't do. I misunderstood, my bad!
But as far as history goes, we're already in a record breaking year for the amount of storms this early in the season. 5 storms before the middle of July is really active. History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)
The models have a pretty good handle on this thing, so it's pretty certain that it will at some point either hit the coast of Central America or enter the Gulf.
uhhhhh...no.
Hurricane Dennis fixes botched reef 2 hours, 44 minutes ago
MIAMI (Reuters) - Mother Nature tidied up a man-made mess off the coast of the Florida Keys when the force of Hurricane Dennis flipped a sunken U.S. Navy ship into the perfect position to help form an artificial reef.
Powerful waves and currents generated by the hurricane flipped over the 510-foot (155-meter) USS Spiegel Grove and set it to rest on its keel on the ocean floor, reef project managers said on Tuesday.
That was the position Key Largo scuba divers and tourism promoters had aimed for when they scuttled the 6,880-tonhulk in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary in 2002.
"I'm flabbergasted," said Rob Bleser, the volunteer project director, after diving on the reoriented wreck on Monday. "Nature took its course and put it where it belongs."
The Cold War relic was the largest vessel ever deliberately sunk to form the backbone of a coral ridge to nurture sea life and amuse scuba divers.
Work crews had planned to slowly sink it upright. But it went down prematurely and rolled over, creating a navigational hazard when it landed bottom-up with the stern on the seabed and the bow jutting above the waterline.
Salvage crews used giant airbags and steel cables to nudge it over onto its starboard side, where it was safe from passing vessels but slightly disorienting for divers to swim through.
Then Hurricane Dennis blitzed past on Saturday, staying well west of the islands of the Florida Keys but kicking up 20-foot (5.6-meter) waves.
"Waves that high in close proximity to the reef can produce unusually strong currents with tremendous force," said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Strahan.
The Spiegel Grove carried landing craft and cargo in the Mediterranean and Caribbean and was retired in 1989. It lies in 130 feet of water, a few miles off Key Largo.
I think that there is a theory that the "El nino" (sorry, no tilde) is caused by global warning, and for some reason hurricanes are not very prevalent in summers following those winters.History dictates that this shoudln't be happening, but it is. (Global Warming anyone?)
They have supercomputers working on the theories right now. My thought is the weather is too complex a global system to ever forcast with any sort of reliablity, although I think they have upped their 5 day + hurricane tracks to within 200% more accurate in the last 25-30 years.
Of course not, the raised water tempature would have nothing to do with a pattern of increased hurricane activity and intensity. Silly me!
http://www.tricolorsalvage.com/pages/home.asp
Here are some pictures from the Tricolor wreck.
A blow up of the upper left corner. You can clearly see the car still hanging there.
Hey Manny, during the coverage of Dennis (I think I heard it on CNN on Sirius Radio) last Sunday they were interviewing some NOAA analyst or other and they asked him that very question. His response was that it is a cyclical thing, that the Gulf warms up for about 20 years and then cools off for about 20 years and we're coming out of a cool cycle.
Have you encountered anything like that in your research? (Not a smart-ass question, I'd genuinely be interested to know if this is the case.)
Oh no doubt that forecasts are just going to get better as we go along. I think your estimates are far too modest however. They really have a much better handle on things than people give them credit for.
It's not just a matter of computing power but also knowing which observations are more important than others. The models are pretty impressive up to this point and are only going to get better.
Oh, and the El Nino thing I've read nothing about. I do know that if the earths tempature is going up on average, then that is going to affect the sea tempature greatly (on average). An rise of 1 degree in your average SST is going to have a pretty damn big impact. That is an incredible amount of energy being placed into a system, which means more energy will have to be moved around. Thats what storms are - the transfer of energy from one portion of the world to another through atomspheric methods.
I'm not saying it's not cyclical and just for the record, I've never placed the blame on man made global warming. I simply mentoined global warming. There's no denying the tempature of this earth is going up - regardless of the reason - and that will and is having an affect on the storms.
Also, there was a study just released on how the oceans are absorbing larger amounts of carbon dioxide and are thereby being turned more acidic. The level of acidity by which they are rising seems small, but the impact that things of these nature have is enourmous.
The point I'm making is that the earth, it's atmosphere, and it's oceans are a huge system and when you add large amounts of energy you're never going to see changes which seem large. A degree means to us, but when you consider it on a global scale it's a pretty huge deal.
I'm not worried. I'm sure Jennifer's Doplar will "nail it" way before it threatens our coast.
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