Everything depends on Ginobili and Splitter's new contracts. If they are overpaid, the Spurs will end up trotting out the same lineup as last year, just another year older and another year slower. Leonard's gains would be offset by a slower Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili. The Spurs will have a difficult time reaching the finals and actually defeating the Heat. They can't rely on Westbrook getting injured or a repeat of Green's best 3 point shooting in NBA finals history. It'll be more of Parker dribbling the ball to nowhere and Ginobili giving the ball to the opposition whenever he gets the chance.