I am sick and tired of hearing how big of a deal missing Ibaka is.
Note that I am not saying:
1) He will not make a difference
2) The Spurs will win this series
What I am saying is, given what has transpired so far, Ibaka would not have made a 20+ point difference in either of the first two games, and here is why ....
1) Ibaka is a fantastic defensive player, and he would likely have been a primary defender on Duncan. If he played in Game 1, in which Duncan was dominant, he would have forced Duncan out of the low block, but that would allow the Spurs to penetrate into the paint even more so. The issue about the Spurs scoring so many points in the paint in Game 1 wasn't just them missing Ibaka, it's also because their perimeter defense sucked. They allowed Parker, Ginobili and Kawhi to waltz into the paint unimpeded, if Ibaka came over to help, the Spurs would have just passed it out for a perimeter shot or for a dunk/layup inside. To top it off, the Spurs had 16 fastbreak points, and scored 21 points off TO, Ibaka isn't going to do much about those.
2) People point to 2012 and 2014 RS as some sort of "proof" that the Thunder would be a lot better vs. the Spurs if Ibaka was available, but you are comparing apples to oranges. The Spurs had no problems scoring in 2012 playoffs vs. OKC (they had 99+ points in 5 of the 6 games), they had trouble stopping them on offense. Sure Ibaka was hitting everything in that series, but the real difference on offense that year was Harden.
As for the 2014 RS, RS and playoffs are two different animals, especially when it comes to coaching. RS games were more based on individual talent, in which teams didn't have as much time to prepare for each other and can just "wing" it. Playoffs on the other hand, requires a lot of preparation to exploit your opposition's weakness as well as magnify your strengths. Brooks is not even in the same league as Pop as a coach. The only reason OKC won in 2012 was because of the massive talent difference. With Harden out of the picture, and the improvement of Green and Kawhi, the talent level has narrowed. Ibaka is not going to make up for that by himself.