Poll is ambiguous. Are we talking about the Heat or Spurs? For Heat FMVP it's 98/1/1 on Lebron/Manu/Wade winning.
For the Spurs?
It's not going to be Manu
. I'd bet $1M on it.
I'd say it's 95/4.999/0.001 on FMVP being Parker/Duncan/non-Manu role player who gets hot and shoots like 60% from 3 for 20 PPG+
You don't get Spurs FMVP for bricking 3s and turning the ball over. And, while Manu is incredibly valuable to the Heat his bricks and turnovers are competing with the best player on the planet in Lebron James, so Manu's chances at Heat FMVP are also slim (but still non-zero).