The point being they were already forcasting it torwards that direction as early as Friday morning. Thats 3 ing days! Thats amazing as far as hurricane forcasts go. That is what you need to understand. They had already put the entire northern Gulf Coast on notice.
But they couldn't evacuate the entire Gulf Coast, that kind of movement is impossible, so they had to wait till it got closer to land before they could nail it down right? I don't remeber seeing evac. notices until sat. and the first watch that I see is on Sat. at 10 am
And honestly when was the last time you paid attention to a tornado watch, when it's a watch people sometimes don't care.
It's like arguing with a wall. Nevermind.
Manny, what is your IQ?
Forgive me if I'm putting words in your mouth, but you are saying that it was good meteorological feat that they were able to pinpoint the storm's course so far in advance.
I'm just asking you why did they wait 11 hours to issue a watch. Honestly I think it was because they were unsure of the course it would take until sat. at 10 am
@ the link that explains this.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/owlie/hurwatch.htm
Can you figure it out?When weather forecasters decide the storm might reach land within 2 days, they issue a Hurricane Watch. This tells people along the coast that the hurricane over the ocean might reach land. The National Weather Service tells you what is happening. Keep listening to the radio or television.
So, their policy is to only give two days notice, that's just stupid.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/owlie/hurwatch.htm
Can you figure it out?
No, their policy is to operate within the effectiveness of hurricane forcasting. They give notice as soon as there is any indication. They issue a hurricane watch within 2 days of a projected landfall.
Are you really this dense?
Nevermind, it was me who is dense for resuming this thread. I'm out, again.
I just think it's a stupid policy if the conditions are there, that's what watches are for. Obviously they should be confident enough in their conclusions to issue a watch, because it's like watches that make people move. That's just common sense.
Well Manuel, it's been quite a jouney but my lack of drive coupled with the fact I may have work tommorow forces, me to sleep. I have gone SO far off my original thesis, it would take forever this ain't going to get back on track. We ended up arguing over twelve hours. Not time of argument, but subject of argument itself. Let's just watch the adjectives. that s not nice.
^MFer you realize it took me 18 minutes to finish up a thoughtful reply, and you end it like this
Even before it hit florida there was talk about the storm sffecting the gulf coast....NHS said for the entire coast to take heed...including Texas.........they did predict a dramatic increase in the gulf due the warm waters (91 degrees). They even told NO and that area to be prepared if the storm were to change course....it did...yet no preparations were done until the last minute and you saw the chaos predicted. There were all types of watches and warnings for the entire area as soon as it left Florida.
Maybe you want them to tell which house will be destroyed by a tornado?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...640.shtml?5day
Looks like their prediction of a Carolina hurricane is fixing to come true.
You can find the Katrina graphics archive at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...graphics.shtml
In particular to the above argument...take a look at these two successive 3-day track probability plots from the Friday prior to landfall:
These two plots are 6 hours apart...but even in the first one, the 3-day probability cone includes New Orleans and the eastern coast.
In fact, if you look at all the track predictions, the hard right turn (that didn't happen) into Appalachicola, et al, really only shows up well in one plot.
Go to the strike probability graphics as well. You'll see that at no time was the Florida panhandle strike probability ever assessed to be as much as 20%.
By early Saturday AM, the track prediction had settled down...and they nailed it.
A 15-mile "miss" is a f@#!ing bulls-eye...especially when talking about an eye that was 30-40 miles across.
Don't be so sure. The models dont' have a grasp on this storm at all. I still think it will come across Florida because the models don't have the ridge building in just right.
In either case, It's going to sit there for days before going anywhere.
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