This is a meteorologist from accuweather.
The conditions are always favorable this time of year, which is why you see such a large development of storms right now. We are at the peak moment of storm development in the season.
The models have been consisten bringing that system in south, but we'll see.
The latest GFS run keeps it way south in the Bay of Campeche by 9/21 next wednesday.
area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
845 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 17 2005
.discussion...atmosphere Over Deep South Texas Is As Dry As It Has
Been All Month...with A Precipitable Water Value Of 1.59 Inches On
The Kbro 00:00 Utc 18 September Sounding. This Dry Atmosphere Will
Persist And...when Combined With High Pressure At The Surface And In
The Mid-levels Of The Atmosphere Over The Rio Grande Valley...will
Result In Very Warm And Dry Conditions For The Bro Cwfa Through The
Next Several Days. The National Hurricane Center Continues To Watch
A Surface Area Of Low Pressure In The Vicinity Of The Turks And
Caicos Islands. This Disturbance Has The Potential To Become A More
Organized Tropical System Tonight Or Sunday. 18:00 Utc 17 September
Run Of The Gfs Suggests This...bringing An Organized Tropical System
Across The Gulf Of Mexico Towards The East-central Mexican Coast...
Then Pulling The System Northwest Into Tamaulipas As 500 Mb High
Pressure Shifts East From Texas To Mississippi. This Scenario Could
Result In Significant Precipitation Late Next Week And Weekend For
Deep South Texas. However...will Let Overnight Shift Examine Newest
GFS Run And Other Models To Make Precipitation Determination For
That Time Period. Otherwise...will Issue Updated Zone Forecast For
Tonight To Remove Evening Wording. No Other Forecast Changes Planned
At This Time.
&&
You beat me too it. I was going to post a thread about what will be Rita earlier.
The GFS has progged this thing for a good time frame now, and there is development happening under that disturbance. I would be really suprised if by Tuesday we're not looking at Rita coming into the Easter Gulf.
What is interesting is that the North American Model (NAM) has it spinning up into a 'cane before it even gets to the Florida straits.
^ I hate it when you post like this. It reminds me of your previous Katrina posts...
MIG, your Rita is what NHC calls EIGHTEEN?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...617.shtml?prob
TD 18 would be Rita when it becomes a tropical storm
18 should be Phillipe by tomorrow. It's going to probably grow into a major hurricane but hopefully won't botehr anyoen but the fish.
Sorry, 17 should be Phillipe.
Phillipe has been named and TD18 has been officially formed as well.
Texas better keep a weary eye on this one!
Last run of the GFS:
The only good news is that the trough that is picking it up seems to accelerate it quite a bit and send it off to the north, so it wouldn't be a slow mover.
That storm should officially be Rita by the 4pm advisory. The satellite presentation looks good.
area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
330 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 18 2005
.discussion...500mb Ridge Across Texas And The Northern Gulf Of
Mexico Coastline Will Move Slightly Westward Over The Next Couple Of
Days. This Will Provide Subsidence Across South Texas Producing Dry
And Very Warm To Hot Conditions Across The Cwa Monday And Tuesday.
Will Keep Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Tuesday For
Moisture Increasing Slightly Across The Western Gulf Of Mexico. Mav
Temperature Guidance Appears Slightly Too Warm For Highs Monday And
Slightly Too Cool For Highs Tuesday So Will Adjust Mos Max Temp
Numbers Slightly.
All Eyes Turn To The Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday As Tropical Storm
Rita Enters The Southeast Gulf Tuesday Night As A Hurricane As
Forecasted By The National Hurricane Center. The Track Brings Rita
Across The South Central Gulf Of Mexico Thursday Into The Western
Gulf Of Mexico Friday. Subsidence To Increase Across The Western
Gulf Wednesday Into Thursday And With That Moisture Should Be
Limited Across South Tx Especially Thursday. With Increasing
Subsidence...temperatures Will Remain Above Normal Through At Least
Friday. The Rest Of The Forecast Will Be Highly Dependent On The
Future Track And Intensification Of Tropical Storm Rita. Per
Coordination Call With Wfo Kcrp...will Go Ahead And Increase Pops
And Winds Based On A Possible Landfall Along The Lower Tx Coast
Saturday Morning.
&&
.marine...tropical Storm Rita Is Positioned Near The Turks And
Caicos Islands And Is Expected To Develop Further As It Moves West
Toward The Florida Strait And The Gulf Of Mexico. The Official
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track Brings The System Into The
Western Gulf Later In The Week. In The Short Term...a High Pressure
Ridge Over The Northwest Gulf Of Mexico Will Move West Over The Next
Couple Of Days. This Means That Winds Over The Coastal Waters Of
Deep South Texas Will Gradually Shift From Southeast To East During
The Next Couple Of Days...possibly Even Backing Around To The
Northeast By Wednesday. Wind Speeds During That Time Are Not
Expected To Be Excessive...less Than 15 Knots Most Of The Time. Seas
In The Outer Coastal Water Sections Will Remain At Three Feet Or So
Until At Least Until Midweek.
&&
You should man. You seem to be a natural.I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.
It is official. They gave it the name Rita.
Oh, and right behind Philippe we have a strong wave that will probably be TD19. There's a reason this is the peak of the season.
Tourists Evacuate Fla. Keys Before Storm
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 18, 2005
Filed at 6:22 p.m. ET
MIAMI (AP) -- Thousands of tourists jammed the highways Sunday after they were told to evacuate the lower Florida Keys because Tropical Storm Rita developed over the Bahamas and moved toward the vulnerable, low-lying island chain.
A hurricane watch was posted for the entire Florida Keys, which means hurricane conditions of winds of at least 74 mph are possible by late Monday. .....
Good tracking info from you all. I think it's going to bust Brownsville right in the mouth.
145
URNT12 KNHC 182347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:24:20Z
B. 22 deg 36 min N
072 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 071 deg 067 kt
G. 042 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 19 C/ 499 m
J. 18 C/ 1518 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 23:16:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE
Thats the last message from the hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm right now. We may have Hurricane Rita on our hands before soon. The Keys should probably evacuate before too long.
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