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Well, I "called" Katrina, so I say this one goes up the Sabine River.
But I would prefer Baffin Bay.
And Corpus is way, way overdue fior a storm. Hope they haven't put all
the cots away yet. I think they are going to need them for our vistors from
the Texas coast.
Well, I "called" Katrina, so I say this one goes up the Sabine River.
But I would prefer Baffin Bay.
5-day projected winds, animated
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...tml?hwindloop?
UKMET has been especially accurate this year and they currently have it centerpunching Houston/Galveston...but obviously it is still pretty far out...
hmmm...looks like I may be changing my weekend plans...we are booked at the L'auberge du Lac Casino in Lake Charles...
Tell me you didn't fall for those cheese low class Lauberge commercials they have been running non stop? I think it's tacky as .
No. When a storm sits in a spot for very long it actually becomes weaker. The winds will stir up water from lower depths which is a lower tempature. So, the longer a storm sits in a spot the more chance it has of actually weakening.
That being said, this storm has very little chance of ever stalling. The steering currents are pretty straightforward.
You hate to say never, because you can never be 100 percent sure with these storms. But I woudln't bet money on this thing ever stopping anywhere.
Take lots of money! They are tighter than Dan with Bush compliments!
Cool! Vashner, "The Czar of the weather telestrator"!Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...
NHC be damned, she's a 'cane right now.
What Manny said, mikey. For an excellent example, look up Hurricane Allen in 1980. It was coming in as a Katrina-sized storm...but it suddenly put down anchor off the Texas coast, wound itself down to (I think) a Cat 3, then came onshore in Kenedy County.
Manny....I will not generally disagree with your position on stalling but I lived out Celia in 1970. It stalled about 60 mile out and "strengthened from 90 MPH to 160 MPH. Then it came ashore and destroyed our city. You can never say exactly what will happen.
Water temp in the Texas gulf is still around 85 F...
That's not warm enough?
It is a pretty shallow layer of warm water. You need deeper and actually hoter water to fuel a cat 4 and cat 5 storm.
IE the water Katrina was over when she was a Cat 5 was 90 degrees.
Plenty warm enough!
thanks Manny....I knew you would know.
Hook, a weaker storm than a cat3 can intensify because its winds are not strong enough to stir up the water. But if it sits there much longer after intensifying it will weaken due to upwelling. Like I said, never say never though. Stranger things have happend.
Generally, this storm should be a strong cat 3 for the most part in the gulf as it moves west.
One interesting thing Jeff Masters brought up was the pocket of heat that generated the strength of Katrina. It is still there, though somewhat smaller, and if these tracks for Rita keep shifting north, it could pass over that pocket.
If that happens, it could reach Cat 4 status.
I still don't think the track is going to shift north enough for that to happen, but it sure is possible.
Agreed Manny!
They aren't too worried about it yet in Houston. This morning's news models have the high pressure front staying in place and pushing it to the south, hitting northern Mexico up to Corpus. They said they'll know better tomorrow when the storm shifts again, and they can see what the high pressure front does (dissolve, move further south, stay in place, move east).
Given the construction on the Katy freeway, they'll want to begin evacs tomorrow if it looks to hit us this week . . . and I was just in NB yesterday . . .
There should be a concern about a storm hitting Houston/Galveston because of all the Katrina refugees and evacuees who have just been stationed here. Houston will stand up all right to a hurricane, but the flooding is a perpetual issue in a concrete jungle built on swampland. . .
But go freaking figure. Our wedding is October 1, and while Rita will hit before then, we're still not going to be out of hurricane season. . . joy. Please hope this goes to the south, and that weather remains okay until after the wedding (I know, I'm awful. But there have been enough problems, just with darling fi's family. They don't need to gloat over bad weather).
Hey let's go deep sea fishing this week.. only up to 12 foot swells..
I need a good puke cleansing....
!!
Up untill last week, we had a trip planed for Wednesday. Now, we changed it before this came up, but I'm glad we decided not to go right now.
We have an eye.
Think about this thing getting to Category 4 and hitting Houston...I can just see those evacuees in the Astrodome going through the sequel of "Katrina 2"...
My first weekend off was scheduled for next weekend. Nice timing.
I'm still calling Brownsville and a Cat 4.
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