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Would be a big help if Danny Green picks this as one of his Hot games. Him draining a couple of 3's early really makes the Spurs task much easier.
Normally you do not wish your weekend to end ... but the championship games tonight and our game tomorrow, well Sunday, just go away!
Would be a big help if Danny Green picks this as one of his Hot games. Him draining a couple of 3's early really makes the Spurs task much easier.
That's unlikely for an away game
Thanks for posting. Quality posts like this are few and far in between these days.
The problem with GS is, they shoot well from everywhere, even the FT line. So we cannot really use the Hack-a strategy in this game.
Best bet, make them take really long 3s, by crowding the line.....or make them settle for mid-range jumpers. Also, everytime they drive to the basket, put them on the floor.
Also, with this team, we cannot overpass. We have this habit of overpassing, turning away solid looks, and then either turning the ball over or missing a last second shot. Ball movement is essential, but we cannot get carried away. If the first pass gives an open look, take it. The worst culprit is Boris. He turns away so many open shots and it is quite frustrating, especially when he has a hot hand. One player who we won't have to worry about turning away shots is Simmons. He is the closest thing we have to a Black Hole on the offensive end.
I wonder if the let them get theirs (Curry and Klay) and shut everyone else down strategy could work. I honestly feel that 10 years ago, it could have been quite effective. However, in today's game, where it is more wide open and the defense gets no love from the Association as far as rules go, I just don't see this strategy being as effective.......at least against the Warriors anyway.
I also wonder if we will get to see Boban. I doubt it, as he is a bit slow to react, and GW is filled with faster paced players. I can see Bonner having an impact though, with his outside shooting and hustle.
I see this being a high scoring game, even though our D has been great all year. With that being said, I hope we can get about 80 out of our starters (KL - 20, LA - 20, TD - 15, TP - 15, DG - 10)....Then, about 35-45 points from our bench, led by Manu and Boris of course. That would give us 115-125 for the night, which sounds about right in a game versus the Warriors.
I am going to give us the W.......123 - 119
The thing I'm most worried about are the Warriors' illegal screens. They do it constantly and have become really good at getting away with it. They make it really hard for the guy guarding curry to recover
I agree with the win but that score is too high unless it goes to OT. I have to believe DG will show up defensively and LA defensively and crashing the boards, some offensive boards too.
Thanks for this write-up! I love many of the key points about posting them up and not playing their game. I too believe LMA will be a big difference maker and see lineups that include him with Boris and Kawhi as formidable. This will be the first of four and will be a great game I'm sure. Like you said, I expect us to go down a bit at first and bear down and right the ship by the half.
The Dubs are not the same team without Green.
True, but great defenders aren't usually foul prone. Going at the best players' strength isn't always a good idea. A better idea would be to instantly post up with any big who gets on anyone OTHER THAN Green. You can go at him with Aldridge for sure, but if the goal is to punish the small lineup, he's the strongest link in the chain.
The Dubs are not the same team without Green.
Are you the guy who said he should stay in the corner "much time"? That makes a world of difference...
Also, since Kawhi's shooting horrible from 3 (7-21 in the last 7 games) that idea doesn't sound especially brilliant.
33 3FG% vs 53 FG% 1.07 PPP 92.5 percentile in post-up plays, just for reference, LMA 46.7 FG% 0.94 PPP 75.1 percentile
You're an idiot. He's the best 3 point shooter on the team. He's still, despite your protest about the "last 7 games", the scond best shooter in the entire NBA.
And, yes, I said "much" and "often", and NO ONE said "most". You're creating a poor persecuted strawman. NO ONE said most of the time. You can't produce a single person, much less "people".
You were referring to me, and you can't read. And, there is a "world of difference" among those words.
Kawhi should be behind the arc much of the time, and often, as one of the most potent three point shooters on a team that isn't exactly stacked deep with them, but also has lots of post up threats beyond just himself.
I understand you have some sort of crusade to get him more post ups, and he's a good post up threat. But, he's not Shaq.
And, you quoted Chinook who did not say "most" as you have attempted to claim twice now. In addition, it's out of context, and sounds like he may have been speaking about certain situations or even have been being sarcastic. If he was being sarcastic, I am not surprised you missed it. You have difficulty with black and white. But, he nor I said "most".
Why did you quote him? Not sure.
Again, "most" has a quan ative attribute. It implies a preponderance, majority, greater than 50%, which, no one ever stated.
And, the most mind-numbingly stupid part of your argument is using 33% 3point% to compare to his ppp for post-ups.
You had to cherry pick the last seven games to make ppp lower? What would have happened if you used the last EIGHT games, lol. He's shooting .478 on the season.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/pl...ntFieldGoalPct
.333 for the last seven games is comparable to his post-up number. It's not even convincing if it were his actual realistic percentage. But, .478(3)=1.434. Even if he can't maintain this pace, it's better than .333, surely. Very untruthful of you.
.333(3)=.999 vs 1.07 even if he was shooting .333, which he has only for a few games is negligibly close. So close, using the last EIGHT games probably wreck your premise.
But, 1.434 not negligibly larger than 1.07. Considerably.
Then, you drop the 92.9 percentile in post ups, meaning 7.1% are higher than him. That's good.
Why didn't you post his 3 point % percentile? Because there is only ONE GUY ahead of him, J.J. Red . Which means he's in the 99 percentile area, and makes the post up number look like in comparison.
All that being said, it still doesn't mean he should only be shooting threes. He should be posting up, as dictated by team opponent, individual defenders on him, who he is playing with on his team, if he's on minute restrictions on back to backs, etc, etc, etc. That is what the coaching staff is for, or Kawhi's decision making in the moment. This is not even mentioning the need for spacing the 3 creates.
But pretending him shooting the 3 is some sort of sin just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. If he may need to post up a little more, it definitely isn't a lot more, and especially not at the expense of his 3 ball. It may have to come at the expense of another player's shots in some games. There's only one ball. We stacked.
People already over-reacting to Tim's demise because he's acquiescing shots, taking a back seat on offense.
Last edited by littlecoyotecoin; 01-24-2016 at 07:10 PM.
Small size sample? 7 games-33 FG%...that sounds like a pretty serious slump shooting.
He had a slow start against the Cavs, but it wasn't surprising that his best play in the first half was a post-up against Shumpert, and he picked up in the second half after getting to the line in the 3rd quarter...he's a post-up player and his confidence is there when nothing works for him.
Now, his 3's aren't falling so he needs to stay aggressive, attacking, getting to the line...parking him in the corner won't help him get out of his slump.
Just good? Those FG%/PPP/percentile in post up plays are insane, elite...he's one of the best and most efficient post up players in the whole league.Kawhi should be behind the arc much of the time, and often, as one of the most potent three point shooters on a team that isn't exactly stacked deep with them, but also has lots of post up threats beyond just himself.
I understand you have some sort of crusade to get him more post ups, and he's a good post up threat. But, he's not Shaq.
But it's ok, keep him in the corner missing 3's instead of playing him to his strengths...that will help the Spurs a lot tomorrow night.
Last edited by YGWHI; 01-24-2016 at 07:26 PM.
You must be trolling. That's some stupid .
Yep, he was sarcastic...ok.
Just good, right?Then, you drop the 92.9 percentile in post ups, meaning 7.1% are higher than him. That's good
Because he can't hit an ocean from 3 now...while his post-ups still look great.Why didn't you post his 3 point % percentile? Because there is only ONE GUY ahead of him, J.J. Red . Which means he's in the 99 percentile area, and makes the post up number look like in comparison.
Last edited by YGWHI; 01-24-2016 at 07:33 PM.
Compared to 99th percentile, yeah. 92 is just good. But, I'm done with this conversation. Good luck to you.
Just good, right?
Because he can't hit an ocean from 3 now...while his post-ups still look great.
Kawhi is getting a lot of post looks off action. And he's still scoring 1ppp off his threes. So it's not like it's bad. Anyway, I don't get the point of your post. Parker playing well has made the offense so much better than it would have been had he been a spot-up guy like Mills. Kawhi can pick his spots, get good touches in the flow of the offense and exploit mismatches. If anything, the Spurs aren't using Parker enough, though that's because he can't handle the wear and tear anymore. Make no mistake about it, though: If Tony were in 2013 form, Kawhi would rightfully be on the backburner offensively. A guard getting into the paint is just better for a team than any iso play could be.
His post-up Freq says otherwise.
Is this related to...nothing? Not sure since when if someone wants the Spurs post Kawhi more that means Parker should be replaced by his backup or get a spot-up shooter role.Parker playing well has made the offense so much better than it would have been had he been a spot-up guy like Mills.
Just for the record, "more" doesn't mean "every possession"
Maybe, but if the other guy was #2 in whole league in PPP on isos...A guard getting into the paint is just better for a team than any iso play could be.
https://twitter.com/OleReigstad/stat...19453044998146
It would be reasonable to consider the idea of feeding him more in the post and a bit more than 12 FGA per game like in the last games.
But... they don't shoot that well everywhen.
I ran a bunch of stats based on shot clock - if I tried to post all of it, it would make your eyes bleed. But the bottom line is, the Warriors are the best in the league in the first six seconds of the shot clock. But from the middle of the shot clock to the end, they're mere mortals. In fact with 4 or less seconds left on the clock, the Dubs shoot a lowly 23.5% from the 3P line, compared to 29.3% for the Spurs. (In the month of January, the Warriors end-of-clock 3P% is only 14.3% - among the worst in the league.
The Spurs, on the other hand, own the middle-to-end of the shot clock. When there are between 15 and 7 seconds on the shot clock, the Spurs FG% is a league-leading 49.7%. And their 3P% is also league-leading at 42.1%. Now... if you want something really eye-popping - in the month of January, the Spurs have been monsters in the middle of the shot clock. Their FG% between 15 and 7 seconds left on the shot clock has been 55.3%. And their 3P% has been a staggering 57.1%.
The most amazing thing to me was that with 7-4 seconds left on the shot clock, the Spurs out-shoot the Warriors. The Spurs FG% in that part of the clock is 50.2%, compared to 43.1% for the Warriors. The Spurs 3P% is 47.9%, compared to 37.9% for the Warriors.
Bottom line, the later the Spurs can push the Warriors in the shot clock, the better chance they have of winning. And the same goes for playing transition defense. I was surprised at some of the numbers, but it says that the Spurs can, indeed, beat the Warriors with defense, by keeping them in check for the first 6-9 seconds of the shot clock.
As for FT shooting, the Spurs actually shoot FT's better than the Warriors, as a team. (.790 Spurs vs .754 Warriors) Golden State has several players who shoot FT's very well, but most of the roster is pretty pedestrian. Bogut is only shooting .414 from the FT line, and Ezeli shoots .532. Even Draymond Green only shoots .674 from the stripe. It may not justify a hack-a strategy, but it does say the Spurs should use their fouls liberally against those guys.
Here's one more set of stats that might help calm some nerves among Spurs faithful. Below are stats from the Month of January, which represents how the two teams have played most recently.
It's no surprise that the Warriors kill opponents with the fast break. But the Spurs have killed their opponents just as effectively in the paint. Plus... the Warriors give up a lot of points in the paint.
What might be surprising to most is that the Spurs' overall FG% in January has been better than the Warriors' - and their 3P% has been only 1 percentage point worse. Also, note that while the Warriors get most of their fast break points off of turnovers, the Spurs haven't been turning the ball over much lately. In short, the Spurs have been doing EXACTLY what they need to do against the Warriors.
Month of January Stats for Spurs and Warriors
Point Differential
Spurs +18.0 Warriors +12.4
FG%
Spurs 50.5% Warriors 49.4%
3P%
Spurs 41.8 Warriors 42.8
Turnovers/Opponent Points Off Turnovers
Spurs 10.9/13.6 Warriors 13.3/17.3
Points In The Paint/Opponent Points in the Paint
Spurs 45.1/39.2 Warriors 44.8/46.1
Fast Break Points/ Opponent Fast Break Points
Spurs 11.2/11.0 Warriors 20.8/14.6
No Timmy and one other Spur will sit for the game. Boban or Ray is are the likely choices. Bonner will be active because of his experience. GS can play offense but I dont think as highly of their defense as some do. We have played the easy schedule so far but so have they. GS has the top scoring team, but are 18th in defense. Spurs are in top 3 of 8 of the 21 offensive stats. GS top 3 of 9. On defense, Spurs are in top 3 of 13 of the same stats on defense. GS? 4. We can win with solid D. Our offense will not change that much. Match ups of GS will dictate how we do. If we force them to cover Aldridge and West in the middle, then they lose the transition back on their offense. Both historically, dominate Bogat. If Bogat is playing we have an advantage there. Draymond Green will have to cover the other of our bigs. Putting Diaw in the mix, we have a player who can run the offense and whoever defends him will have to do it all over the court. With his abilities handling the ball, he presents a problem. Leonard, Green and Parker will be licking their chops on offense as GS has to either double team or get killed inside. We have to cover passing lanes on D and keep the fast break points to minimum. Curry will get his points. He is starting to look like a younger Kobe and chucking up more shots to get his scoring trophy. The rest of the team has to be controlled. If we play D we should be able to stop the others as we won't be giving them easy shot off Curry. This is how we should play against the Warriors. Slow down Curry and stop the rest of the team.
Switch on screens. Dubs like to get people open on movement. Minimize the effect of their interchangeable parts.
Nice analysis.And I think we've got the defenders (especially on the wing) to extend the shot clock.
It will be interesting to see if the absence of TD encourages Curry and company to drive more to the rim.
GSH and maverick1948 very nice analysis.
Although ppl will make noise of us going "smaller" instead of staying true to our "big" lineups... we will only have 3 reliable bigs and no true center. I suspect we will see some Kawhi at the 4.
Maybe we don't see Boban as much as we thought we would. I think there are some minutes he could play against certain lineups... but not many. I tend to think we see Boban with Diaw and not LMA. It could be LMA/West, Boban/Diaw.
Keeping perspective and the big picture?
1. Its a RS game, not playoffs. If there are some guys that you want to see in this context, this is the time to do it.
2. Foul trouble with such a short big rotation could be an issue. Remember Lamarcus got in foul trouble in the 3rd Q against the Cavs.
3. Anderson, Butler, Bonner on ice just in case.
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