Bye Bye Rita, o Stan.

[spurs=bling]

Manny, your obsession with storms rivals Dan's obsession with Bush.

i wanna be a meteorologist

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?

[SpursWoman]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?

We don't want to waste our time speculating, though....you should just find out when & where it will hit from Dan.

[MannyIsGod]

True, he has that super formula.

Dan, to save the day!

[travis2]

Oh and don't forget to ask Carlos Guerra who he thinks should evacuate...

[/political shot]

[Hook Dem]

Stan will hit Mexico, i guarantee it.

Is that like Peterson with the 49'ers guaranteeing a victory Sunday?

[Ginofan]

Sweet, if it could just hold off reaching the coast till next Friday, I'll be in Port A for landfall!

[travis2]

Nothing yet...

But give it a day..

That little er is definitely thinking about developing a center...

[MannyIsGod]

Wind readings from the area already indicate a low level circulation. If I was a betting man - and I am - I'd say we have TD 19 by tonight and Stan by tomorrow night.

[TheAdmiral#50]

I just want a cold front already! It's so damn HOT!

[Shelly]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?

But will people evacuate this time????

[Spurfect]

But will people evacuate this time????

if the evacuations are more organized this time? maybe. no way i'm going through THAT again.

oh yeah, and my car is still in the shop because of Rita. so I doubt I'll be driving it out again like that in 6-7 days

[SpursWoman]

Then you'd probably be better off moving to somewhere that wasn't suseptable to natural disasters.

[Ginofan]

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and disorganized, and will not become a tropical depression today. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today will probably be cancelled. The disturbance has no surface circulation, surface pressures are not falling significantly, and there is about 10 knots of shear over it--which is marginal for tropical storm development. However, the largest burst of deep convection we've seen yet with this system began at about 4am EDT this morning, and the disturbance now has an expanding area of thunderstorms with cold tops that may signify the beginnings of an attempt to organize into a tropical depression. The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development.

I expect that we won't see a depression until late Wednesday, when the upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax significantly. I still give this disturbance a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The GFS model predicts that the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week, but this forecast is too far in the future to give much credence to.

The strong Tropical Wave in the Caribbean has slowed down from 15Kts to under 10Kts, and in so doing, has become considerably more organized in it's overall structure and concentration of convection -- which has now taken on a circular pattern to the southeast of Jamaica. The very broad area of low pressure that dominated the central Caribbean yesterday, as confirmed by numerous surface reports, appears to have become better defined and is a closed circulation.

Satellite imagery and surface reports indicate the most likely surface circulation center is near 14.5N/75.1W. The very latest Buoy report from at 15N/75W indicated winds went from NE at midnight, to N by 8AM CDT, & just in the past hour, have swung around now to WSW indicating the passage of a closed low pressure center very close that location.

The models runs - for some 'unknown reason' have not been run since yesterday afternoon- but the GFS model continues to develop this system into a cyclone in the NW Caribbean by Thursday. The track shown by the GFS has it passing across the far northern end of the Yucatan now, and then reaching the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. As is typical of newly forming systems, and the GFS handling of them - each model run bounces back and forth on the track -- and without the aid of the specialized tropical storm models -- it's rather difficult to determine which track is most likely. Since the odds appear much higher today that the system will become a Depression -- once that happens, the various specialized models WILL become available again. At the moment, NHC indicates it may send a RECON out on WED to investigate the system. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see that moved up in time depending on the next 6 hours of satellite and surface reports.

I just found it kind of funny that they are contradicting on some points when they updated their blogs relatively at the same time.

[Manu20]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 271502
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Tue Sep 27 2005

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Vigorous Tropical Wave Centered A Couple Hundred Miles Southeast
Of Jamaica Is Producing Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Over Much Of
The Central Caribbean Sea. This System Has Become Better Organized
Today... And Upper-level Winds Have Also Become More Favorable For
A Tropical Depression To Develop During The Next Day Or So. An Air
Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To
Investigate The System Tomorrow... If Necessary. Interests In
Jamaica... The Cayman Islands... And In The Northwestern Caribbean
Sea Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System Over The
Next Few Days As It Moves West-northwestward At About 10 Mph.

[travis2]

When your main sources of information are satellite photos and a few pressure readings from surface stations...there is still a great deal of interpretation that needs to be done. Different people see different things...or see things that aren't there.

I can't say which one is right...

[Manu20]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

TXZ248>257-281100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S AT THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST TO NEAR 104 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS RANGING FROM 106 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S
AT THE COAST TO NEAR 104 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 106 TO 110
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BACK TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MONDAY. RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND AFTERWARDS.

$$

[MannyIsGod]

Masters updates his posts throughout the day. He posted that way earlier than Gregory sent his stuff out. Masters has since updated his blog again to reflect the low pressure.

Also, they weren't contradicting on the devlopment and timeframe. Masters said tomorrow and Gregory didn't give a time frame just that as of today the depression was more likely to develop. I think you read it as he was saying it would develop today.

[travis2]

hey...looked at the loop lately?

[Ginofan]

Masters updates his posts throughout the day. He posted that way earlier than Gregory sent his stuff out. Masters has since updated his blog again to reflect the low pressure.

Also, they weren't contradicting on the devlopment and timeframe. Masters said tomorrow and Gregory didn't give a time frame just that as of today the depression was more likely to develop. I think you read it as he was saying it would develop today.

Yeah I just noticed the update...and I mostly confused as to why one had it disorganized and the other had it organizing when the updated posts times were 3:18GMT and 3:19GMT. But oh well.

Also Manny, do you have a link to that GFS run you were looking at?

[travis2]

Yeah I just noticed the update...and I mostly confused as to why one had it disorganized and the other had it organizing when the updated posts times were 3:18GMT and 3:19GMT. But oh well.

Also Manny, do you have a link to that GFS run you were looking at?

you can get there from here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Ginofan]

you can get there from here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Yeah that's where I was at, but I can't find what's supposed to be Stan on the loop, I guess I'm blind? I'm looking at this loop. Help?

[travis2]

Yeah that's where I was at, but I can't find what's supposed to be Stan on the loop, I guess I'm blind? I'm looking at this loop. Help?

You might try the surface loop...the 06 loop does show something coming off the LA coast and wandering around a bit...

This far out, though, it's not going to be of much use for "Stan"...

[MannyIsGod]

Use the surface loop and follow the surface low. The GFS does not deepen the system so you won't find a vort max on the 500mb loop.

[Samr]

The irony of all this..... I take advanced speech from a lady named Rita Stanley.

She said her husband threatened to kick her out of the house.